Indystorm

Shreveport metro...especially south should be on guard and in a safe place.

Aiming for Shreveport environs.....be on guard and in a safe place.

Could be an interesting evening in IL and IN as we get our first taste of spring t storms.

Low and mid level lapse rates are good in the affected watch areas.   Helicity at present could be higher but this could change.

I presume Newnan is our first EF-4 of the year then?

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Got 2nd Pfizer shot yesterday morning. Ended up with fairly bad arm soreness, body aches (that were worse than when I had covid), and moderate chills, but no fever. Kept me up for a lot of the night. Feeling a bit better now but still not 100%.

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Hope you are feeling better and enjoyed that ski trip to Colorado with the big snow.  Haven't heard if you got there ok.

Well, I did my part to keep cases lower. Got my second shot of Pfizer yesterday.  Have a bit of a sore arm at the injection site but other than that no complaints.

I have learned two things from this outbreak.  One is Tony Lyza's comments about the EML being so strong it prevented cells from fully maturing over MS until they got to the AL line and eastward.  The other is that the supposed King (the Euro)  had the surface pressure for this down to 988 and 982 mb which was way too deep for what transpired.

I am wondering if that incipient line of storms from TN into northern MS will break up into supercells when it enters AL where helicity is much higher.

1 minute ago, brianc33710 said:

Should we prepare for more severe storms to fire over E MS & W AL? Or are we good?

Severe parameters are still impressive although helicity is higher in AL.  Keep aware of the weather for awhile longer.

I must admit I am a bit baffled.  We have had many tornadoes, some long tracked.  The current surface low is 1002 mb in southern IL, currently deepening but not as fast as expected.  I always thought a number of svr parameters were tied to the strength of the surface low, yet we have had extreme values with a low pressure not 990 or lower and many svr reports.

I am concerned about that clearing sky in north AL in front of two lines of storms forming in northern MS.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 51
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   345 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern Illinois
     Southern Indiana
     Western and Central Kentucky
     Southeast Missouri
     Northeast Mississippi
     Western and Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible

I must admit I was not expecting a tornado watch to include southern IN and IL for this Thursday evening while I was focusing on action down in MS and AL.

Yes

Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

Deepening surface lows do amazing things WRT LLJ response/backing low level winds. This trough has the perfect amount of negative tilt to allow perfect, uninterrupted veering of the winds from the surface on up to the tropopause. It's debatable how much of a negating factor certain degrees of veer-backing really are, but it's not even an issue today.

Yes, I am always more concerned with a deepening low rather than an occluding one.  The parameters today are just amazing.

6 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

They are (the cells in the SW part of the state) , but based off the latest data I would think they mature in AL

Yes, the surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen.  It is 1006 mb and diffuse now but expected to deepen to 996 mb by this evening in southern IL.  This may be one item to watch later today if the pressure falls do not occur as intensely as expected.  I think I am grasping at some kind of straw to mitigate what looks to be a possibly historic outbreak.

I have learned from watching storms here in the Midwest never to discount the possibility and potential of WF associated thunderstorms and tornadoes.  And with an environment like you have in AL at present I would be especially concerned.

With supercells persisting overnight in the tornado watch in Texas this does not bode well for regions down the road in the southeast.

Surface low continues to deepen in old Mexico just south of the big bend.  Now down to 996 mb.

5 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

I'm going to get more concerned for a severe storm threat here in the Metroplex if the dewpoints can continue to rise into the 60s.  The southern and eastern sections have already seen this happen, and there is additional storm activity forming to the west as well (between DFW and Abilene, but those storms appear to be elevated and behind the surface front).

Your winds are backed se with dews in the upper50's.  Do have to see how that warm front behaves.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
708 PM CDT WED MAR 24 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  SOUTHWESTERN BOSQUE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 708 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CRANFILLS GAP,  
  OR 10 MILES EAST OF HAMILTON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  CRANFILLS GAP AROUND 720 PM CDT.  
  MERIDIAN STATE PARK AROUND 740 PM CDT.  

Yes the HRRR runs are consistently extreme from AL and MS north to the Ohio River Valley.  How accurate were they a week ago for March 17?

9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

This says it all... Just a little more instability off from being way more.


.

And it is only March with our highest tor climo in May and June up our way.

Very  conditional to say the least.  Best chance of svr from eastern Mo trending se into southern Illinois this evening as moisture and shear advance northward a bit.  2000 update will be informative.

6 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

TorCon isn’t exactly the most, uh, robust tool to use

Agree, but for non wx nerds unlike us who don't know much about CAPE, shear, helicity, supercell composite, and STP it can be useful