n1vek

GFS has been comical lately with showing outrageous solutions in the medium-range only to see virga and a stiff breeze verify. 

GFS keeps taunting us with something big. This Tuesday wave is a bit closer than fantasy range, low pressure placement will be key. From what I can tell (and have read), the Euro keeps the low tracking too far south/east for the Denver metro. Something more to watch if we can really get one of these March waves to pop. 

3 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Whatever happens, we really need a big slug of moisture. 0.6" QPF 4-5 days out turns into 0.4" at the event onset and ends up verifying as 0.2", every single time.

1000% - I don't know how much moisture this state would need to see before I say "hey, maybe let's hope this next storm falls apart before hitting here"

Operational GFS drops a bomb on the front range starting about hour 250. Whats the kamchatka connection say? @raindancewx

This far out is fantasy land, but the macro pattern of multiple lows tracking into the West during our month with best big storm climo gives me hope (???)

Under a very intense band right now. Almost 2” down and rates are probably 2”/hr at least. 

Point and click here in Arvada has 1-2" today, 4-8" tonight. It will be interesting to see where we land tonight. Hopeful for a nice little upside surprise. Keep this moisture coming after how dry it was July-Dec.

40 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

and... crickets. Meh. What if they gave a watch and nobody came?

In their recent AFD update acknowledged this will likely be an advisory level event outside of some areas up against and in the foothills. 
 

I’m glad this storm will spread a bit more wealth up at the resorts. They’ve been too dry since New Years. 

Flying in Friday afternoon to the Detroit area. Nice I am going to be back home to see the aftermath (and brutal cold) of this event. Gives me something fun to model chase. 

15 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It's getting into Denver now, with 1/2 mile visibility at Erie and BJC

I am probably 2.5 miles NNE from Olde Town Arvada - been sitting in a really nice band for maybe 20 minutes now. We'll see how far south these things sink. 

1 minute ago, Chinook said:

snow is starting in the Denver metro area.

Just started snowing lightly here in Arvada. 

Where that Fri-Sat low ejects looks nice. Still a long way to go, but the wind field should be decent for upslope?

And also (tell me if I am wrong), a lot of the long-range models (GFS, Euro) account for terrain variability, but not nearly as much as the mesoscale models do. Curious if in marginal moisture situations this results in some of the ranges being underdone? Maybe I am just being a weenie here. 

A lot of the ski & weather social-media accounts are getting onboard for a nice pattern change/stormy December. Operational models, ensembles, teleconnections are supporting the idea. 

One more weekend of mountain biking at elevation and then hopefully it is ski season.

4 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

The GFS amuses me.

 

12z had a huge snowstorm next weekend affecting 1/3 of the country.

 

18z it was gone except for light snow along I25

Just assume the dry scenario will play out.

This is getting depressing.

On 10/20/2021 at 5:40 PM, raindancewx said:

Next time frame is 11/6-11/10 for NM/CO (10/20, +17-21 days) with the low today SE of Kamchatka. This one is way south of the other one, likely better for NM. The storm in a week by Kamchatka is shown to move that stupid North Pacific high around 10/27.  That's your big mid-Nov pattern change if it verifies.

 

Have these lows been hitting, just tracking north of my selfish wants and needs here in CO? (Low ejecting into the plains has been north vs last spring's mega-storm. Thus upslope winds have favored WY vs CO)

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The GFS has a 980 mb low south of the tip of Kamchatka on 10/3. It's been there, or similar for a few runs now. That's probably a good snow event for at least the higher terrain of NM and CO if that verifies in a few days. Would be 10/20-10/24 if the GFS timing is right.

I am glad we are back to reading raindance posts tracking Kamchatka lows. It has been awhile. 

I am very interested to see the Colorado drought map when it is released tomorrow. Last week's iteration didn't catch the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. Add that to the rain we received Monday and we could see additional drought improvement vs the map shown above. 

GFS is spinning up another big guy for the Front Range for Monday-Wednesday of next week. I am sure it is over done, but will be interesting to see if other models start to bend towards it. 

Back in the fall I told the wife how much I wanted wet spring/backloaded winter for fire season. Seem to be getting it as of now (in the eastern half of the state/foothills/divide). I guess it will really all come down to the success/failure of the monsoon in late summer.

GFS seems to keep the party going until at least early next week. Long range has some fun stuff implied as well. Whatever can delay meltout/eat into this drought, I am all for it. 

Just tossed up a Blizzard warning. May end up backing our way into the forecasted storm totals if it keeps like like this through the afternoon. 

21 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

The models still want to give Denver and points south 8-12"  more before it all ends, but I just don't see it.

The HRRR is juiced for the rest of today and into the evening. Still may end up getting to the initial forecast estimates if that plays out. Strange, slow event. Looks like Eldora, Winter Park are getting buried today as well. 

Pretty brutal miss (thus far) here in the city. Really hope the Estes crew cashed in or hopped in the car for Wyoming. 

Returns have moved way north, but snowfall rates still are pretty decent. Odd low-level upslope or something?

Looking at recent guidance, seems like the slower/south camp is working out? Will be interesting to see how this materializes overnight? Someone check me here if I am wrong. 

Rates are very high out in Arvada. I'm probably 500' higher than downtown. Accumulating on the grass.