n1vek

4 hours ago, Stebo said:

I think so too, my bigger concern at this point isn't storm track but deamplification of the trough which would limit the precip locally and introduce more dryslotting.

NAM looks to really show this exact issue. Getting nervous heading into nowcast time.

With the Detroit AFD, my point and click in Royal Oak, MI is down to 4". Whomp whomp.

Do we wait for tomorrow's full sampling before writing this off as a northern track?

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I'm wondering if that is the same thing that will happen here. They actually closed DTW airport due to icing right now

I am also curious what ground cover will look like 24 hours from now. I really really do not want to go into the deep freeze without snow on the ground.

2 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Im thinking someone in SE MI and maybe even Metro Detroit gets 6-8" out of this storm. The updated AFD mentions that they've bumped snow totals up a bit and that the system is slightly further north and west of guidance. 

Can confirm here in Royal Oak, MI. Current rates and radar trends have me thinking this will be a bit of an over performer.

5 minutes ago, fluoronium said:

I know I'm being greedy, but I don't like being in the doughnut hole that's showing up on multiple models. Heavier snows in every direction around me. Still though a 5" snow would be nice, but I've been spoiled from the recent storm.

I would love to see that map extended to the east another 500 miles. 

1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Darker shade stretches to both side of the lake tho. If you meant lake enhancement due to the easterly flow, it should be on the IL side only I'd think.

I think he's looking at the NE-SW returns coming onshore in Wisconsin.

Just now, Stebo said:

I agree with this depiction, it shows the fgen band and the main southern stream storm fairly well.

But do you agree with that sweet, sweet band of 7-10" totals running up into SE Michigan?

That east coast surface low splitting and ejecting 2 lows, one to sea and one recycling through the Hudson Bay?

It's been a letdown in the rain department. Hoping tonight/tomorrow pans out.