ILMRoss

*sherlock holmes voice* that's meteorology my dear brick

Funny thing about the CMC is that even after all that pessimism we still get a decent event. The CMC splits the two shortwave so much that the northern shortwave, less encumbered by the southern wave interaction, is able to maintain some integrity and have a better tilt. The things that stings is that this set up does not need southern stream interaction. The northern stream can get this done on its own; we need to trend with the shortwave being stronger and digging more. We're currently seeing the opposite trend.

I'll pump the breaks and say @84 never mind. Too much separation. Another event coming but it won't be a kingmaker.

@54 the Canadian looks very similar to that 12z run yesterday. Our Arizona energy looks a little weaker and I think it would be easy to get it to phase with our northern shortwave. Let's find out...

I'm not super duper enthused about the "second wave" because the cold appears way more marginal. Give me improvements on the first wave all day.

That northern stream short wave on this run is worst its looked (weaker and ticking NE) so far.

As of now yeah it's more or less overrunning. I'm sort of struggling with that "why does RDU have mixing issues in some runs" question. I'm settling on this: The "strung out, positively tilted" look is just generally no bueno for straight snow. I think there's likely some sort of destructive interference going on between the two waves that just kill them both and cause the general trough complex to slow and stall. If they stall, lower heights can never really press into the Carolinas and we're just simply left with warmer mid-level air. No crazy dynamics overamping stuff going on, we just would't be able to cool those mid levels sufficiently in that spot. I do think that the surface cold press is here to stay. Crazy cold air masses can and do undercut warmer mid level air, i mean, how do you think places like Missouri get ice storms?

To me, I think that the battle lines are set today. Going to use the Canadian from last night because it's a good example of our "dudes out on the field". The northern energy drops in from the plains. We want this energy to be stronger and nudging further to the SW; our dud runs are when this trough stays too positively tilted and just can't get anything to pop. The southern energy comes from Cali/Arizona and we want it to be quicker; our dud runs come when it's held back. It's a shame that we have to deal with this because Baja/Mexi lows have the predictability/reliability of orange cats (you know the type). So far it seems a host of solutions are on the table. The runs where the Zona shortwave is held back make this plains shortwave dominant and we just have to hope it is digging enough/strong enough to pop something. The runs where the Zona energy kinda mingles with our northern stuff (saw this with Canadian) will be murky. The end product would depend on how cute the models get with fluid dynamics but generally it looks like the trough would be large/south enough to bring some good moisture transport but positively tilted/sheared enough to cause ptype issues. 1.28.2014 is the obvious analog here. The runs where the Zona energy comes together in melodious harmony with our northern energy (yesterday's 12z Canadian) would be iconic southeast winter events. Famous last words here but the surface temps shouldn't be an issue with this cold press.

Canadian shortwaves ended up getting modeled out of sync, these need to be together. Shows the potential we have that even with this we still pulled off a moderate event.

Canadian looks like it's going to be a treat, similar look to 12z at hour 96

There are minor difference so far on the Canadian through hour 78 but so far it looks like it could be similar to the 12z.

@120 Boom!!!! Snowing across the entire Carolinas with heaviest at the coast... what a run!!! Edit- let me couch this by saying the snowmap won't look incredible yet but the GFS took a huge step forward

@114 Snow breaking out across central GA, SC and coastal NC... much healthier run

At hour 90 500 mb setup looks way different... that southern energy is much more consolidated... could be a big run...

ICON with a healthy NW jolt. itshappening.gif

ICON trickling in and 60 hours in think this run is going to look pretty good (or at least improved)

Gonna be honest I didn’t see any sign of that at all, our chief problem will be getting enough qpf if you take modeling verbatim right now. Temps are beyond fine and any event would produce pixie dust snow.

If you are hemming and hawing about losing the storm, I would not. I saved a trend GIF that storm that buried Nashville a few weeks ago. It's the clearest NW trend/amped example I've ever seen. It happens a lot. "Hey shortwave, be more amped! Be stronger! Dig a little more!" Not the hardest things to root for on modeling going forward

I think you have a weird mix of emotions on here. A little bit of "here we go again", a little bit of "most focus is going to the situation at hand", etc. But to balance my pop cultural reference I will say this: On a wholesale level this potential looks much more fruitful than our current storm. Temperatures are leagues better. Huge, consistently modeled cold push. The smart folks at Wilmington's weather office have already put in snow in their forecasts. That almost never happens. I think that just about every office around here already introducing snow for next weekend is a pretty big sign. The National Weather Service is generally the largest brain trust of meteorological knowledge that we have and it's both rare and awesome to see them biting this far out. Since we're immediately following a storm that had a ton of potential that backslid into Miller B mush as we got closer, I think feeling snakebitten and being a little reticent to buy into this is understandable. But make no mistake- I'm feeling pretty excited now that I've digested things. Hoping that the 12z suite is positive after I've left such a gushing review of the potential here.

completely didn't notice it since it wasn't pinned good call

Much appreciated. that looks great. if gfs/icon/cmc roll in looking good then lets get this thread up around noonish

does anybody have 00z EPS imagery for this, like some snow means, maybe a 51 member chart for rdu/gso etc

In downtown Raleigh (oakwood) we have 80% pingers 20% snow

i can't believe i'm going to spend another 6 days in a row overanalyzing every run of the gfs after swearing it off yesterday Way better temps this time I'm licking my chops