CIK62

Next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or about 9degs. BN. Month to date is -2.5[48.6]. Should be near -5.8[43.9] by the 17th. 30* here at 6am. Back to 32* by 7:40am. 35* by 9am. 37* at 10am. 39* at 11am. 40* at Noon. 41* at 1pm. 42* at 2pm. 43* at 3pm. 44* ar 4pm EURO/GFS both about 1" of Snow on the 13th.

Just reached 32* here at 9:25pm. Did touch 40* in the early afternoon. The third week of November is looking boring and near Normal.

Next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or about 10degs. BN. Month to date is -0.7[50.6]. Should be near -5.3[44.2] by the 16th. 35* here at 6am. 36* by 8am. 37* at 9am. 39* by Noon. All Snow threats seem dead for next two weeks.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 8 degs. BN. Month to date is -0.7[50.8]. Should be near -4.9[44.7] by the 15th. EURO is down to just 1" of Snow on the 13th. 50* here at 6am.

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 7degs. BN. Month to date is -0.5[51.1]. Should be about -4.5[45.1] by the 14th. 48.0* here at 6am. EURO is 3", 12" and now back to 2" of Snow on the 13th. Outside of last November's mid-month outburst, such big snowstorms have only occurred during the last week of month. But with GW, the gear shift may not be so smooth, and another anomalous event is possible.

Yep, EURO is 12" around the 13th, 14th for the City. This is up from 3" on the previous run, so issue far from settled.

Next 8 days are averaging 44degs. or 6degs. BN. Month to date is -1.9[49.9]. Should be near -4.6[45.9] by the 13th. 56.8* here at 6am. 59.1* by 8am. 60.5* by 10am. Got to 61.5* in early PM.

The next 8 days are averaging 44degs.,or about 5+degs. BN. Month to date is -1.7[50.3]. Should be near -4.5[45.4] by the 12th. 44.5* here at 5am. 46.0 by 7am. 48.0* at 8am. 49.8* at 9am. 53.0* by Noon. 55.0* by 2pm. Got to 57.0* around 3:30pm.

Next 8 days averaging 46degs., or about 3degs. BN. 45.3* here at 5am. (6am EST).

The next 8 days are averaging 46degs., or about 4degs. BN. 43.5* here at 6am.

The first 8 days of November are averaging 48degs., or 1deg. BN. ( used 70/46 for today). 46.8* at 6am. 52.7* by 1pm. (got down to 45.7* near 7am.)

The BN air that is coming in tomorrow could last all month, till the first week of December----and then quickly return. Our earliest snow this year in the City may occur near Nov. 14. This is from the CFSv2. Maybe that stratospheric warming weak or strong is going to start to play a role---as it always does during the cold air season. Really do not know if that possibility is somehow incorporated in these LR Analog Models or not. Some SW was occurring all summer w/o mention.

When it comes to Flood Insurance.................................................... NATURE LIKELY TO REACT FASTER THAN THE GOVERNMENT https://brooklyneagle.com/articles/2019/10/28/flirting-with-disaster-flood-zones-still-uninsured-years-after-sandy/ Of special interest to me: https://www.brooklynpaper.com/stories/42/44/bn-coney-island-flood-preparedness-2019-11-01-bk.html Meanwhile available funds go unspent: http://brooklyn.news12.com/story/41263270/city-comptroller-report-only-54-of-superstorm-sandy-funding-used Lack of a flood plan for Hunt's Pt. Market: https://thecity.nyc/2019/11/no-flooding-protections-in-store-for-citys-largest-food-hub.html btw: EDC is operated like a private company, but uses your tax dollars as the 'risk capitol' and regardless of how well any employee preforms, they must all go when a new Mayor comes in.

Quick guideline numbers for Novembers around here: 850mb T goes from +5C to 0C and the 500mb Heights from 5680m to 5600m during the course of the month. These would the Normals as the month progresses. For the first half of November we range from +15C to -15C on those 850mb. Ts.

My prediction for the winter is a 'COLD, STORMY ECONOMY'. A Negative Spending Index, A Positive Inflation Index, Low Confidence Voter/Consumer Influx from middle America, Tweeting in Phase 9!, and a Chief Meteorologist with an Omega Block in his head. LOL!

Global Politics and the Weather: https://www.newsmax.com/finance/peterorszag/local-weather-forecasts-global/2019/07/31/id/926702/

First 5 days of July look BN with little precipitation.

I was on the roof of the building my city agency occupied on July 4, 1986. This was the Battery Maritime Building ( now being made a hotel?),[@27:53 in ABC Part 1-bottom right, green patch] where you get the Governors Island Ferry. Mayor Koch and the Commissioner(s) were just below me in the Comm's. Off. A police security detail was with us on the roof, and yes, I was wearing a sweat shirt against a ne. wind. But it was 98* a few days later. July 4, 1999 had 101* ×2 around that time. A TS that came early, near Noon, one day that weekend sent the big crowd home and I had a hot, wet beach for myself---I had waited it out in the men's room near me. Lol

We are down to exactly Normal for the DJF period, according to the CPC. JB has an exaggerated negative bias where the CPC has Normal throughout SE/MA.

JB still has all his eggs in the basket of the 'Ash Wed. analog 1962' to our setup in early March. SDiM is not on board with this.

JB, never one to admit he is wrong, is now talking about March as he was about Feb. Rekindling the ghost of Ash Wed. NE of '62 and some strong 1984 event. He just skips by the warmest Feb. ever. If he blows it, I am certain he will merely move on to his hurricane forecast or something about putative global warming theories.

On the paysite. Probably will go public tomorrow AM. CPC output has caved too. Tomorrow we will see what they have to say, since meteorologists there lick their wounds on weekends or party for 48hrs. if they get it right.

NYNJPA waved the white flag and gave up on the remainder of the winter. A wrong way SSW does us in.

And they always made you feel like they are in your city. But the same ACCUWEATHER person can be followed from Boston-Philly-NYC at a different number of minutes after the hour/half hour. Really, for two of the cities they are only looking at a RADAR screen/computer terminal and not out their window! Back around Aug. 05, 1999, NYC was hit by 4 Thunder Storms in 2.5 hours, and WINS did not have a word about it in a "live" report I heard while on the beach, despite the fact I was already getting ready to flee from the imminent storm #1 that PM.

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20. He was 83. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article