CIK62

https://www.bing.com/search?q=roy+orbison+++its+over&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=roy+orbison+its+over&sc=8-20&sk=&cvid=9BBDB2B8169A41C0824BF533C113432E Interesting live version. I am willing to throw my original 45 out the window onto a snow pile, if we get one. Even AccuWeather says any cold will flee quickly. There appear to be two pulses, near NYD and the 6th., then the PV begins to contract from us and who knows when the next cameo appearance will be?

DON'T LET YOUR NAVIGATIONAL MAPS FOOL YOU AND YOUR COMPASS..............GPS apparently would not be affected. "Earth's magnetic north pole is heading for Russia and scientists are puzzled" (Source: CNN, 12/17/19) The north magnetic pole has been slowly moving across the Canadian Arctic toward Russia since 1831, but its swift pace toward Siberia in recent years at a rate of around 34 miles per year has forced scientists to update the World Magnetic Model -- used by civilian navigation systems, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and US and British militaries -- a year ahead of schedule. The World Magnetic Model 2020 forecasts that the pole will continue on its path to Russia, but now the speed is slowly decreasing to about 24.8 miles per year. Since its discovery in 1831, the pole has traveled 1,400 miles. The magnetic field reverses its polarity every several hundred thousand years, where the magnetic north pole resides at the geographic South Pole. The last reversal took place 770,000 years ago. In a new study, researchers discovered that the last field reversal took 22,000 years to complete -- much longer than anticipated or expected, the researchers said. Although some believe reversals could happen over the course of a human life, the findings don't support that theory. Earth's magnetic north pole is hurtling toward Russia Researchers were able to study the reversal by analyzing a global survey of ocean sediments, Antarctic ice cores and lava flows. The details within those samples revealed how Earth's magnetic field has weakened, shifted partially, stabilized and reversed over a million years. "Reversals are generated in the deepest parts of the Earth's interior, but the effects manifest themselves all the way through the Earth and especially at the Earth's surface and in the atmosphere," said Brad Singer, study author and University of Wisconsin-Madison geologist. "Unless you have a complete, accurate and high-resolution record of what a field reversal really is like at the surface of the Earth, it's difficult to even discuss what the mechanics of generating a reversal are." Our planet's magnetic field is created by an interaction between the liquid iron outer core spinning around the solid inner core. When a reversal happens, the normally strong magnetic field weakens. Rock formation acts as a way to track the changes in the magnetic field. Lava flows and sediments record the state of the magnetic field, marking when they were created. Geologists can use the samples like pieces of a puzzle, reconstructing the history of the magnetic field. The record goes back millions of years, but it's the most clear when looking at the last reversal. "Lava flows are ideal recorders of the magnetic field. They have a lot of iron-bearing minerals, and when they cool, they lock in the direction of the field," Singer said. "But it's a spotty record. No volcanoes are erupting continuously. So we're relying on careful field work to identify the right records." 'Ghost particle' found in Antarctica provides astronomy breakthrough Radioisotope dating of lava flows and continuous magnetic readings from the ocean floor and Antarctic ice cores helped recreate a picture of the last reversal for the researchers. Argon can be measured from the lava flows as the radioactive decay of potassium occurs in the rocks, while beryllium can be measured in the ice cores. A weakened magnetic field allows more cosmic radiation from space to strike our atmosphere, which creates more beryllium. The actual reversal took less than 4,000 years -- a drop in the bucket when compared to Earth's timeline so far. But leading up to that reversal were 18,000 years of instability, including two temporary and partial reversals. This is twice as long as expected. The magnetic field decreases in strength about 5% each century and signs of weakening in the field point to an upcoming reversal -- but it's hard to know when that reversal will happen. If a reversal happened during our lifetime, it could impact navigation, satellites and communications. However, the researchers believe that we would have generations to adapt for long periods of instability in the magnetic field. "I've been working on this problem for 25 years," Singer said. "And now we have a richer record and better-dated record of this last reversal than ever before." //end//

EURO WEEKLIES with regard to the WPO, EPO, AO, NAO indexes are -4sd at mid-Jan. on the Control, but the ensemble mean is so-so, near normal. As for the PNA the mean and the Control agree on the blahs. Fast jet stream destroying the Pacific Northwest ridge, would cause this I suppose.

59 years ago today, we were home watching a blizzard wipe out the mid-Atlantic and the City*. Anyone here remember if Public Schools were open on that Monday? Mayor Wagner had them opened for Hurricane Donna, exactly three months earlier, and during the Jan. 1964 Blizzard, but closed the next day. *This immediately reminds us of the sad sight of Stephen Baltz, the temporary sole survivor of the Dec. 16 mid-air collision over SI, lying in a pile of melting snow from this storm at Sterling Place/7th. Avenue.

First 5 days of July look BN with little precipitation.

I was on the roof of the building my city agency occupied on July 4, 1986. This was the Battery Maritime Building ( now being made a hotel?),[@27:53 in ABC Part 1-bottom right, green patch] where you get the Governors Island Ferry. Mayor Koch and the Commissioner(s) were just below me in the Comm's. Off. A police security detail was with us on the roof, and yes, I was wearing a sweat shirt against a ne. wind. But it was 98* a few days later. July 4, 1999 had 101* ×2 around that time. A TS that came early, near Noon, one day that weekend sent the big crowd home and I had a hot, wet beach for myself---I had waited it out in the men's room near me. Lol

We are down to exactly Normal for the DJF period, according to the CPC. JB has an exaggerated negative bias where the CPC has Normal throughout SE/MA.

JB still has all his eggs in the basket of the 'Ash Wed. analog 1962' to our setup in early March. SDiM is not on board with this.

JB, never one to admit he is wrong, is now talking about March as he was about Feb. Rekindling the ghost of Ash Wed. NE of '62 and some strong 1984 event. He just skips by the warmest Feb. ever. If he blows it, I am certain he will merely move on to his hurricane forecast or something about putative global warming theories.

On the paysite. Probably will go public tomorrow AM. CPC output has caved too. Tomorrow we will see what they have to say, since meteorologists there lick their wounds on weekends or party for 48hrs. if they get it right.

NYNJPA waved the white flag and gave up on the remainder of the winter. A wrong way SSW does us in.

And they always made you feel like they are in your city. But the same ACCUWEATHER person can be followed from Boston-Philly-NYC at a different number of minutes after the hour/half hour. Really, for two of the cities they are only looking at a RADAR screen/computer terminal and not out their window! Back around Aug. 05, 1999, NYC was hit by 4 Thunder Storms in 2.5 hours, and WINS did not have a word about it in a "live" report I heard while on the beach, despite the fact I was already getting ready to flee from the imminent storm #1 that PM.

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20. He was 83. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

So complex, that the writer probably intends to use it support whatever Feb/Mar brings. Meanwhile JB has begun to skip by Feb. and now talks about Mar. saving things.

The CFS is either Clueless or Snowless for the next 33 days around here. It likes your timing.

SDi believes cold and stormy conditions return after Jan. 20th., while JB says Big Thaw. I do not see any conflict till Jan.28 with AN being interrupted.

Right. CMC gives us 8". GFS is zippo.

Thanks for the summary graphics. That little patch of blue must be JB wishing upon a star his theory of combining the Pacific ACE with more traditional ideas is right. LOL! The first 7 days of Dec. will be +6, so a 42 degree surplus will have to be eliminated in the remaining 24 days to get back to normal, about -2. Will come down to last days of month which into the New Year may be AN again.

CFS looks like horror show right now for Jan. We have to hope this is wrong as usual. Based on 850mb. T: Days 1-10 mostly BN Days 11-27 exclusively AN Days 28-31 BN

CFS had one good 6BN 'Next 45 Days' run a few days ago, but its been AN since then.

Technically speaking, today was the first day of Climatological Winter and so a new winter banter forum should be started. It runs from Nov. 27 to Mar. 24 and represents the bottom quartile of daily mean temperatures which indicates the range should be all days with a mean T between 43-31 degrees. The bottom of the NYC winter comes in and around Jan. 24.

Once BN period starts near the Dec. 10th., it lasts till the New Year, when AN or just Normal temps. return---------probably muted by a hopefully large, thick snow blanket by that time. I have not seen the 'Next 45' this cold>>>>>6BN in recent memory. I hope this is not a CFS headfake. Also since next 2 weeks look to be +5, the period after the 10th. would need to be 11BN to finish 6BN!. FANTASY TERRITORY

EURO WEEKLIES [11/23] have record cold near Christmas, then flip by 50 degrees !!! for NYD. GFS slowly rotates the Polar Vortex to the east (from over Asia) and seems to want to get it here (over Hudson Bay) by mid-Dec. Go to Instant Weather Maps to see this. Image will not link.

We can use the next 20 to 25 (12/09 period looks OK) days as a Tax Write Off loss to the winter. Even Joe Besardi not cheering it anymore for now. BUT I MUST WARN EVERYONE THAT THE CFS BANS THE RED HUES FOR 6 STRAIGHT MONTHS, CONTINENT WIDE, STARTING WITH JAN., BEFORE BURNING OUR FERNS IN JULY/AUG.