CIK62

The next 8 days are averaging 61degs. Making it 56degs., or -3.0. 54*(56%RH) here at 6am. 55* at 7am. 60* by 11am. 64* by 2pm. 65* at 3pm. 67* at 4pm. 70* around 5pm. 65* by 8m. 62* by 10pm. Tropics: 26.7N 93.9W. LA. coast already getting 30mph + winds. Eye should cross LA coastline near 92.5W(going to be closer to 92.8W) around 8pm this evening with 80mph+ winds still possible. 28.6N 93.6W by 4pm. We should get 2"-3" during late Sunday to Thursday AM. All models in on this. NW NJ---32* and a bit of white near Oct. 22?

The 12Z GFS for the next 16 days still has 8 days in the 70's upcoming. A normal high of 70 went out the window with September. It averages 64degs., from which I would subtract 8 degrees at this range. So just about Normal for the period sounds reasonable. BN does not get underway till the 21st. Maybe it will really start sooner. The ENS is about 58 for the this period.

The next 8 days are averaging 67degs. Making it 62degs., or about +4.0. 57*(RH56%) here at 6am. 56* at 6:30am, m. clear. 60* by Noon. 62* at 1pm. 64* by 4pm. Tropics: 28.4N 91.7W Well, KWO-35 finally put the word rain into their forecast starting Sunday---- proofing that even an AMBE Chip Voice can be right. Seriously, they must have been following the rainless EURO.

Yep. This is a big flip. Crosses coast further east in the Gulf. Goes to show that atmospheric models can change faster than a political candidate. Watch the debate tonight.

Models are helpless and hopeless in determining if we will get any rain here Sun/Mon. The NWS on KWO-35 does not even have the word rain in its forecast for the period. EURO has T going past 80 then. Look out GFS! I am the champ when it comes to future high T's around here----the EURO exclaims!! EURO still just a TRACE over the next 10 days. GFS has 2"+. EURO Weeklies Control Member has no RAIN till Halloween, I believe!

The next 8 days are averaging 67degs. Making it 62degs., or about +3.0. 60*(85%RH) here at 6am. 68* by Noon. 70* at 1pm. 72* at 2pm. 74* at 2:30pm, wild SW winds picking up sand now(I am at home of course) Tropics: 20.6N 86.3W. GFS still wet here next Monday from the above system 'Delta'. EURO has little rain here. EURO hits the TX/LA border, and the GFS is east of this. Remnants do not get get to be over the Atlantic on the EURO, so nothing here.

Models turn WWW for the next two weeks. Warmer Wetter Windier 925mb winds exceed 40mph on 8 different days in the next 16, supposedly. Tomorrow's cross section. I am at the bottom center. The numbers are RH, not the wind. Compare this with area near New Orleans in about 84 hours:

The next 8 days are averaging 67degs. Making it 62degs., or +1.0. The GFS has 11 days in the 70's, one of them 81---- over the next 17 days and it averages 66 for the period. I would make this 59 or less, given its +T bias. 70 is already AN on Oct. 01. Tropics: 21.3N 89.1W, 17.4N 81.4W 60*(84%RH) here at 6am. Down to 58* at 8am. 70* by 4pm. 72* at 5pm.

CVSv2 is easy to describe this week. AN all the way to the third week of November starting now. (weekly averages) Much warmer look than last week's run. I do not know why they bother producing these types of outputs. We know that worldwide every month the number of square miles of the earth's surface that will be significantly AN is many times the area that will come in BN. The audacity of any model or forecaster to claim to know where the BN spots will be!

The next 8 days are averaging 64degs. Making it 59degs., or -2.5. 57*(73%RH) at 6am overcast breaking up. 64*(60%RH) by 11am. 68* by 2pm. Tropics: 22.5N 87.9W, 16.1N 73.3W. Nothing but a Trace of rain for the next 10 days on all the major models.

The next 8 days are averaging 65degs. Making it 60degs., or about -2.5. 55*(66%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 60* by 10am. 65* by Noon. 68* by 3pm. 69* by 5pm. 65* by 7pm. GFS is dry for the next two weeks. After a T pop next weekend, reaching 60 for a high may become difficult. Remember the GFS tends to show T's that are way too high around here anyway---and it is having trouble getting there. Meanwhile, Tampa has at least started off BN this month, in its effort to end a 29 month string w/o going BN. Just want to note the OP's and ENS. for Week 2 are completely different around here. Tropics: 22N 88W.

The next 8 days are averaging 63degs. Making it 58degs., or about -4.5. 53*(69%RH) here at 6am. 54* at 7am, m. clear. 60* by 11:30am. 66* by 3pm. 67* by 4pm. 68* by 5pm. 61* by 10pm. The Tropics: 19N 87W---a Central America cross-over traitor?

Reached a pleasant 71* here at 5pm. Not quite the Record 93 of exactly one year ago today. I was on the beach that day and described it here as Hot with frequent Dust Devils out of the west. Down to 68* by 6pm. 59* by 11pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 63degs. Making it 58degs., or about -5.0. This GFS run has multiple days in the 80's by mid-month. It had a run in September like this with 7 80's, 1 90 and multiple lows in the 70's. It failed to materialize. Oh, yes, the Tropics again. Mischief at 18N 85W? 59*(66%RH) here at 6am, overcast, wet streets. 57* by 8am. 61*(65%RH) by 2pm, p. sunny. 67*(55%RH) by 4pm. 71*(45%RH) at 5pm.

September ended at +0.8[68.8]. The first 8 days of October are averaging 65degs. Making it 60degs., or about 3degs. BN. October figures to be about +1 on the month here. Precipitation is BN everywhere except Florida this month. I note that the southeastern states have the best chance at BN. Let's see if Tampa gets its 30th. straight month w/o going BN. March 2018 was the last time for them. Average is 56.9 for October now, but my 1968 Almanac has a 58.3 30- Year Normal back then. So even more cooling has occurred due to global warming this month, than last month, lol. Well at least it indicates November has warmed since 1968 by 0.7. Actually compares the +/- 15 year periods centered on 1945 and 1995. 61*(79%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 66*(70% RH) by 11am. 70*(60%RH) by 1:30pm---partial overcast. 72*(53%RH) at 2pm.

Just heard on the radio of a "BRAIN EATING AMOEBA" in the drinking water in an area south of Houston, TX. Will this story supersede the COVID-19? Seems as harmless as COVID-19 was at the start. https://news.yahoo.com/6-old-boy-dies-suffering-182242656.html

Here is a statistic that someone might lookup: What is the most days ever in NYC between measurable snow events? Seems all measurable snow ended last Jan. 18! If we get a late start this season could we not set the record? An unrelated item here about Governour's Island becoming a center to study climate change: https://brooklyneagle.com/articles/2020/09/17/governors-island-could-be-future-hub-for-nyc-climate-solutions/

I think we are headed for another BN ---Nov and AN ---Dec type couplet. Hope this is not correct. Dec.2020 looks to challenge 2015, BLAH!

Ad-Free Secondary Group 3,219 posts Location:ConeyIsland Report post Posted 2 hours ago JB is kind enough to present what should have been last winter's forecast as this winter's Outlook: +3 around here. Actually last winter was probably +4.

59 years ago today, we were home watching a blizzard wipe out the mid-Atlantic and the City*. Anyone here remember if Public Schools were open on that Monday? Mayor Wagner had them opened for Hurricane Donna, exactly three months earlier, and during the Jan. 1964 Blizzard, but closed the next day. *This immediately reminds us of the sad sight of Stephen Baltz, the temporary sole survivor of the Dec. 16 mid-air collision over SI, lying in a pile of melting snow from this storm at Sterling Place/7th. Avenue.

First 5 days of July look BN with little precipitation.

I was on the roof of the building my city agency occupied on July 4, 1986. This was the Battery Maritime Building ( now being made a hotel?),[@27:53 in ABC Part 1-bottom right, green patch] where you get the Governors Island Ferry. Mayor Koch and the Commissioner(s) were just below me in the Comm's. Off. A police security detail was with us on the roof, and yes, I was wearing a sweat shirt against a ne. wind. But it was 98* a few days later. July 4, 1999 had 101* ×2 around that time. A TS that came early, near Noon, one day that weekend sent the big crowd home and I had a hot, wet beach for myself---I had waited it out in the men's room near me. Lol

We are down to exactly Normal for the DJF period, according to the CPC. JB has an exaggerated negative bias where the CPC has Normal throughout SE/MA.

JB still has all his eggs in the basket of the 'Ash Wed. analog 1962' to our setup in early March. SDiM is not on board with this.

JB, never one to admit he is wrong, is now talking about March as he was about Feb. Rekindling the ghost of Ash Wed. NE of '62 and some strong 1984 event. He just skips by the warmest Feb. ever. If he blows it, I am certain he will merely move on to his hurricane forecast or something about putative global warming theories.