Upstate Tiger

GSP keeps some idea of a wintry event next week for parts of the area. BTW...where are all the regular posters? This place is as dead as Williams Brice in the 4th quarter of Clemson - South Carolina game. The EC forecasts a stronger high to our north channeling in cool air as the deep moisture passes Tuesday and Tuesday night. Thus quite cool and quite wet with some wintry precip possible for northern parts of the mountains and foothills. Low pressures riding a front out of the Gulf will not move east of our area until early Thursday which is after the end of the current forecast period.

From GSP AFD long term forecast: Monday night thru Tuesday...the cool air may set the stage for a wintry mess with the next storm system. The southern stream jet will start to amplify and lift northward slightly, placing strong entrance region upper divergence over the Southern Plains. So the signal is fairly strong on a very wet storm system developing somewhere across the southern states, bringing plenty of moisture into the region around New Day 7. Both the EC and GFS show a strong CAD developing and thicknesses supporting a mixed bag of precip types across much of the NC mountains and the I-40 corridor to the east. PoPs ramp back up to high-end chc to likely with temps mainly in the 30s to mid 40s.

You know what that silly clown map reminds me of? The 93 Superstorm......aaahhh the memories. I guess that's all we're left with now!

Well I just renewed my American Weather subscription for another year. If I don't get any snow by the end of March, can I get a refund?

Right on cue, the NAO looks to go negative at the end of the month, hopefully soon enough to give the SE one more opportunity for a winter storm. More than likely it just means another cold wet spring. It seems like I have put down mulch and a aerated my yard in a cold rain each spring for the last 5 years. LOL https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

Sorry. Just being sarcastic with something I saw posted on Facebook earlier today.

Good news snow lovers! Some of my S.C. friends told me that WYFF said yesterday that the cold weather is over for this winter and an early spring is coming.

I can't wait for CR to post these graphics in a month when it shows our annual springtime negative NAO!

Well at least this weekend's storm looks to lay down some pretty good snow in the Midwest, on top of some areas that just got snow earlier this week. This should lay down the tracks for the cold air to come south without a lot of moderation. I know what the ops are showing but I am still not a 100% convinced the system late next week goes as far north as modeled. A lot of moving parts in play after this weekend make it hard to have faith in any specifics beyond 5 days. We do know, however, that there will plenty of cold air, s/w's entering the west and more favorable indices. I wouldn't jump off the cliff just yet.....

Sure hope the latter comes to fruition Grit. The CPC 14 day outlook sucks this afternoon, although the NAO does look to go negative at the end. Of course, the possibility of a winter storm in the southeast this weekend shows how quickly things can change around here! Now, if only the Tigers can make a good showing tonight I'll be happy with whatever happens over the next couple of weeks....

In my 7 years on here I have never started a thread. Maybe I can bring the MoJo. Indices and forecasts seem to be lining up for a wintry January in the Southeast.

For those interested, here is the AFD from KGSP: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Snow pack is building nicely over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains in the next week or so. Models hinting at some moderation in temps in the Southeast around the 15th. Hope that doesn't get pushed back. Ready for some fall temps. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Yep, it's the 3rd year in a row without traditional "fall", at least so far. In 2016 we had the warm fall and all the forest fires, 2017 was just plain warm until the 2nd week of November and this year has also been above average to date. Maybe see a cool down after next week. Highs in the 30's are starting to show up later this week in Montana and Wyoming.

Yep! They have a difficult job covering three different geographical areas and they are the best IMO. Just look at the complexity of this one event....