mahantango#1

Holding at 22 for 2 hours.

Snow has commenced in Pillow area.

Anyone see that S&S forecasting update they are going way out on the limb.

Temp 20 dp 12 @1230pm

From HenryMargusity this morning: The storm is underway and has overachieved in many areas of Arkansas into Tennessee and Mississippi. Snowfall has been over 7 inches in many locations and it’s still snowing hard across Tennessee into parts of Mississippi. Snow is also heavy across the western Carolina’s with ice also heavy in many areas of the Carolina’s this morning. Severe storms including tornadoes are moving across south Florida where SPC took a major bust on the severe weather potential. The surface map shows that low pressure is developing across southern Georgia and a reflection of low with the upper level system is back over Mississippi. With the wedge of cold air so entrenched, I think the low will have to go toward the coast despite the models saying that the low center is going to attack the cold and just ride through it warming everyone up above freezing. We have to see just how much that cold air will hold it’s ground as the low comes up. Heavy snow with rates of 1 inch per hour will come north up the mountains today into this evening. We may have a few hours of snow evaporating due to the dryness of the air. Heavy snow will move into western PA, NY, Northeast and Ontario tonight and last into Monday morning. These areas will see 12 inches perhaps more snow due to high ratios. Next weekend, we may have to go through this all over again.

Just wondering if the low level will hold on a while longer then forecast. Sometimes models are too fast on eroding it. But what do I know.

I guess the beginning of the kiss of death for snow lovers. Maybe with each passing hour till we get to go time. HHHr wont have any for the burg.

Even with temps jumping into the 30s very early tomorrow morning, hard not to believe there wont be problems on the roads with it being below freezing 48 hours prior to this event.

1 here

CBS 21in Harrisburg is saying 2-4 snow and the event is over by midnight Sunday night. So many different forecast solutions.

Dt last call

19 for the high today.

I think they should have a WINTER storm Warning due to the complexity of this situation and especially at night. Even though it doesn't fit the criteria. What a screwed up forecast. Just my opinion.

That is something JB was eluding to earlier today.

Just like we'll maintained roads, the ice stops at the Pa. line.

Yes there is a difference, based on prior events Peter's Mountain seems to be huge factor on these type of events. Peter's Mountain seems to divide the county on the weather. You can go from the upper end of the county with 3 in of snow but once past the mountain Harrisburg could have nothing. So it happens with thunderstorms in the summer also but not all the time. I truly believe the mountain has some involvement in the weather dividing Dauphin County.

Or do you mean drinking that whole bottle while your loading that tanker and then driving it.

But the upper end of Dauphin county (where I live) and west of the river they didn't lower them. It doesn't jive with NWS point and click forecast WHTM is double the amounts of NWS.

Maybe DT is a consultant for WHTM.

WHTM 27 has not really wavered on amounts.

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Maybe Dt was on to something with that map.

Something tells me there will be problems even though it rains with temps. that are supposed to go into the mid 30s during the overnight that cold frozen ground will be a factor. Didn't we just experience that last weekend? NWS had to issue a Ice Storm Warning at when the precipitation was falling. I know up in this part of the state we did. I was stuck at 31 for hours when the models said I should have been in the mid 30s. I know this is a different situation then last week but the possibility could exist.

From DT after he issued his first call, I guess his map is invalid now. BIG CHANGES IN NEW SHORT RANGE MODELS REGARDING JAN 16 Full update on the Twitter page But basically what's happened is that the new high resolution models coming in Friday night early Saturday morning or dramatically warmer at the mid levels of the atmosphere. This is producing a lot more sleet and freezing rain even in the Shenandoah Valley Southwest Virginia Virginia as well as the Virginia and North Carolina Piedmont regions and into central Maryland. Fo example in central Virginia the temperature stays below 32ﾟ until 7 o'clock on Sunday evening which is quite a bit later than what the data was showing earlier. The precipitation comes in with a lot of freezing rain and sleet in all of Western North Carolina the Western half of virginia into Western Maryland and even into West Virginia. The snow amounts on these short range models are reduced but the ice and the ice storm threat is dramatically increased . If this trend is confirmed we are looking at much more than ice storm in the interior or Western half of North Carolina virginia of North Carolina virginia Western and central Maryland and West Virginia and a lot less snow. I'm not going to change anything right now but if the trend continues the last call map tomorrow morning will be significantly different.

Let's see what tomorrow mornings model runs look like as we get a little closer to that event.