Met1985

2 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Well that little rain would be a relief 

No kidding. 

20 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

The 18z NAM appears to be sticking to its guns.

Yeah it will be interesting to see who wins out. The NAM is sticking to its guns but so has the GFS and EURO...

8 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

So if we have NWS or CoCoRaHS stations with missing data how is it even possible to have a verified annual precipitation total for a given location? We can all sit here and say “well I got 6” in this storm and 8” in that one” til we are blue in the face but unless you are keeping accurate records of every event for all precipitation types then it’s all just a best, educated guess anyway. Sorry, it’s the engineer in me lol.

The biggest issue with the mountains is all the micro climates we have. There can be huge variations in snowfall,  rainfall, temps ect, ect, in just a mile difference.  

21 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Likewise. Hell, at this point I'd take an inch and be happy down here, haha. 

Yeah I mean the story of this winter is hedge on a warmer less snowy solution and you'll be ok. Sadly so far this winter has been extremely lackluster.  But we don't complain much in the mountain thread. We take what we can get. We can still pull a rabbit out of the hat as late as April around here...

28 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Dont look now but the GFS was nice for this weekend. And potentially almost all snow for our forum.

Yep I saw that also. Cautiously optimistic. 

12 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Been hovering in the low to mid twenties with flurries and light snow showers all day. Only managed a little over an inch though.

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A nice winter appeal. 

Light snow with a dusting.  A nice winter vibe.

1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

I'm pretty optimistic about the next 10 days man! Thanks for your input, as always.

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Absolutely! This is way better than tracking record highs this time of the year. 

1 hour ago, Hvward said:

 

Not a far as one may think. These waves have developed before on the tail end of a cold front for nice surprise events here in WNC. It’s easy to say snow is a long shot, and you won’t be wrong in most cases. ..But I still enjoy discussing the upcoming pattern and diving into the details.

This is what I was talking about earlier in the week about the pulses of energy rotating in. Good stuff Ward!

Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

Euro looks ok...overall I think as of now it is the best look. But were still in that 8-11 day range so until we get closer I'm keeping my hype at a 0.

Im still very interested in this weekend with the cold crashing in with a nice upslope look to the models. Next weekend is nice but meh currently. 

17 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro starting to sniff out some higher elevation snow chances the next 10 days.. 

I like the look of the Euro.  No worries currently for us to see winter weather soon.

We will just sit back and let it come to us. I really think it will happen in the next 2 to 4 weeks. A wide range but I just like our chances going forward. 

You know the models dont look that bad. Im kind of excited about the next few weeks.

The GFS looks good to me for some wintery weather this weekend.  With a mix bag to start then to rain then a prolonged upslope event with pulses of energy wrapping around the low. 

10 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Maggie valley for the win!


.

Haywood in general did very well.

11 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Is it just me or are the models backing off of the potential for this weekend?

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Yeah they are trending in the wrong direction. 

53 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Yeah, it apparently never stopped snowing here. Didnt amount to much overnight, just another quarter inch or so..2.5" total. Currently sitting at 4.7°.

 

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A solid winter night.

Still snow with an inch on the ground.

Light snow again with another solid dusting. Current temp at 12.

We are getting a resurgence of moisture this afternoon in Haywood. 

Just now, Buckethead said:

That energy coming down from the midwest looks impressive.

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Yes it does. Could be a surprise tonight. 

Watch out for tonight.  It could be interesting around the southern mountains. 

1 minute ago, WxKnurd said:

Yea I’m jealous of your location in the county for flow-driven events.  I want to see what happens at mine when we get a miller A tracking storm, it seems like it would set up well for that especially when looking at annual precipitation maps and seeing a maxima running along the county line.  My anecdotal observations make it seem like the moisture gets ringed out here on anything other than flow snow lol.

Oh yeah we do good in flow and southern system situations but you do better with a miller A or B. The Balsams just wring out all the moisture.  You would be in heaven. Soon enough hopefully we get one storm we can all cash in on.

8 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Yep, flurries at my house and can see the snow showers developing just to our East as the mountains don’t block the flow as good.  Above 4000’, the mountain top is snow covered.  Dusting at our house at 3350’ on our side of the county line and nothing hardly on the Jackson county side.  No accumulation below 3000’ here either.  Mid-teens at 10 am.

Sweet! Its funny Jackson hardly gets any snow in these type situations.