Jonger

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

pondo's alive!

oh trust me I'm still a happy dumb weenie when it comes to tracking the big ones.  I'll never stop model watching for the next memorable winterstorm....I just have far less tolerance for our usual pennies, nickles,  and stretches of cloudy frigid weather.   Blech

Besides it's a money thing too.  The less ability for us to get outside and do our thing, the less cashflow there is....which is why a 'green' winter for me truly means a 'green' winter 

Let me sum up this way when it comes to winter:     Bury me...torch me...or leave me the hell alone 

Cold weather hurts my business too. I just live by the motto that "It's gonna do what it's gonna do" when it comes to weather.

On 11/15/2018 at 2:28 AM, LibertyBell said:

Ironic to see that kind of climate change denialism when unprecedented levels of forest fires are destroying California.

 

I'm sure the advent of matches, lighters and powerlines have nothing to do with forest fires.

17 hours ago, buckeye said:

Will be interesting to see what happens.   Lots of mixed signals....first it looked torchy...then it looked like we may keep ballz to wallz cold/cool into December...now there are hints of somewhere in between.   FWIW today's 12z euro has mid to upper 50's back into central and n. IN/OH the weekend after Thanksgiving and a much more stormy but zonal look overall.

Personally, this snow, sleet, freezing rain stuff today is too damn early as far as I'm concerned 

 

Yea, it's probably a foregone conclusion at this point, it's going to be more average to slightly above after Thanksgiving. Hopefully things snap back soon.

34 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Nope. Follow the pattern and you see 2 big things. Tropical influence waning ending the pattern that started on October 10-11 and a breakdown between the 15th and 20th. The last "arctic" high has looked weaker and less invasive which you would expect. GFS mishandling energy waves off the pacific are well ingrained in its being. I suspect point forecasts will be revising upward over the next week until we hit Turkey day and the change is complete.

Every single model run has reduced the torch. It's clearly not going to be anywhere near the previous forecast.

I don't care about tropical signals or any other index, those only matter until they don't matter.

Every time I check the long range the warm up gets dialed back. Now it's looking like next week wed through Friday goes above normal and then right back to the deep freezer.

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

WOW. Over the last few days the CFS, by far the warmest seasonal model and one with a warm bias, has almost completely ditched its warm rest of November and December idea. I have never seen it change so suddenly and drastically. 

It defaults to warm. 

I'm close to 6 inches on the season. This was my 3rd accumulating snow, each being around 2 inches.

My closest climate station in Lansing has only recorded 3 above normal days in the last month.

I'm heading to the local motorsports store to get ready..... early winter locking in.

Pretty safe to say the CFS was wrong about a warm November, looks like a top 20 coldest November.

On 10/27/2018 at 12:51 PM, Hoosier said:

Gotta post the CFS.  You know me...

Looks like we won't have the cold north and west/warm south and east gradient like October, unless this is completely wrong.

 

This

Everyday since Oct 11th has been at or below normal at my closest climate station.

29F at 12:42am.

Gotta love how models default to warm and then adjust to reality when the time frame draws closer.

I think we need to look at sequestering carbon underground. Just as one country can damage the atmosphere globally, one country can fix the atmosphere globally.

I see almost nothing serious being done in this regard right now.

Yesterday sucked... today, very nice.

23 hours ago, etudiant said:

Is that because there are relatively few people over 70?

It is certainly true that we are doing uncontrolled experiments with our environment, the CO2 injections being the most publicized, but by no means the only one or even perhaps the most significant example. Prudent stewardship of the one planet we have would support a different approach.

Well, a world without access to abundant energy has short lifespans and cyclical starvation problems. The more readily available energy, the more society flourishes.

Most farmers in Michigan have been going no-till for years. I sometimes have to walk up to the field behind my parents and inspect the soil to determine if the field has been planted. They use a machine that cuts slits into the soil and automatically drops seeds in.

The same farmer will also plant beets or turnips in the fall and let them rot and add nutrients into the soil. Smelled lovely in the spring, but it worked.

Not many people living today could say they have a worse QOL than when the earth had 280 ppm co2.

Its 71F with no humidity or clouds.

This isn't top shelf at all.... This is the secret stash in the back room kind of a day.

The system over Nebraska is more interesting than anything in the Atlantic.... and it's August 19th.

26 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The idea that civilization can be redesigned because people care about the environment or the Earth's temperature seems kind of ridiculous to me. Liberals are supposedly the people who care about the environment, but they live in densely populated, highly urbanized areas, not just in the US but globally. I live in the West, with people who are small farmers and ranchers, where we have clean water, clean air, and can see thousands of stars every night and we kind of laugh at the idea that somehow the right is the problem. There is literally nothing stopping the Democrats from changing civilization to adapt to global warming in areas that are urban and by the ocean - that is how you know it won't happen. Los Angeles alone probably produces more smog and warming than 30+ US states if traffic is as bad as I remember.

They can make an argument that condensed populations use fossil fuels more efficiently.... I can see how it's possible, but I'm not sure if that is really panning out.

Less people the better -- everywhere.

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Global pattern change coming in 6-7 days per models, I think it will accelerate ice melt to near record levels through July

(I can already feel it)

LoL

You're going to be disappointed.

On 11/19/2012 at 3:11 PM, Hoosier said:

-53F at IND on 1/20/1985 (temp -22, sustained wind 23 mph) but I've only checked a couple of the notorious cold dates so far.

I remember the 85' cold spell. 

May 1st and I have seen lightning 1 day all year.