Jonger

Basically now through Dec 22nd is toast. Lots of guys riding around in circles in the Grand Marais to Paradise to Newberry triangle.

Some guy on my FB page said he put on 300 miles this weekend up there.

I really wish the weekly CFS would stop defaulting to warm as a result of climate change, it makes long range forecasting nearly impossible.

1 hour ago, slow poke said:

Grand Marais is a great area, if I was looking for a area in the UP to have a place it would be at the top of my list also. 

About 10 miles south of town. This area is probably tied with Twin Lakes or spots in the Hurons.

These would all be my choices. Ontario is an option as well.

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I honestly think the best climates IF you want true summer AND true winter are the likes of Minneapolis, Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago. I really like my Detroit climate for the most part but it isnt my ideal, my ideal would be Marquette. I'm just talking in my opinion I cannot think of a better place to experience distinct seasons. We definitely have long winters and long summers. There are breaks in both, including cool spells in summer and thaws and warm spells in Winter. But the bottom line is winters are full of lots of clouds, lots of snowflakes, and numerous snow systems coming from multiple sources, just as summers are filled with a lot of sunshine and a lot of warm and humid weather. When you are getting up to the 45th parallel, there are certainly several hot days in the summer but there really isn't what id call true summer to satisfy a sun worshippers needs. Winters of course are great (Although I would be very aggravated if I lived that far North but outside of a snow belt. Sure they have frozen Lakes and snow on the ground, but their snowfall totals are extremely weak in comparison to very nearby counterparts). On the flip side, once you are South of 39-40N, Summer is long and hot, no argument there, and there are certainly many cold snaps and several snowfalls in winter, but i wouldnt call it true winter.

I'm really hoping to pull the trigger on a vacation home at some point. Grand Marais or bust. I'd love to be on a river or small lake. I'd just leave my sleds there and drive up for big LES events.

7 hours ago, slow poke said:

My thoughts are if you really want to live somewhere that has true summer weather about 4 months a year and true winter weather about 4 months a year with about 4 months of in between "crap" weather a year live around the 45th Parallel in a snow belt around the great lakes or above 6000' out west. I feel for the winter weather lovers that live south of MI/WI, that area doesn't have deep snow and cold for months on end during the winter. Would be like if I lived in northern MI and wanted to play golf all year round. I hope you guys in IN and OH get some good snow this season, maybe snowfreek will leave his snow magnet off long enough so you guys can cash in on a good storm or two.

Even my area just about always has more snow than Detroit. When the winter features borderline winter weather, more often then not Detroit is screwed while we have snow.

I might take a trip to B.C to get my fix if this keeps up.

On 11/29/2018 at 12:50 PM, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

Or Northern Siberia. 

This pattern is active. To say otherwise is disingenuous at best. Simply because it isn't below normal cold and active, or your back yard isn't getting your ideal weather for LATE FALL, does not mean the pattern is not active. 

 

Active doesn't necessarily mean good. If you're on the SE quadrant of every storm, it's still active, but crap weather.

I'm hoping to see something improve by the 15th onward.

I'll be working my tail off for most of this month, but I still want snow pack to start piling up. 

17 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Yea gonna be a few weeks at least, the past few years we have had decent starts to the season with a torch towards xmas hopefully this year we can get some consistent cold/LES towards end of December into Jan

Although... here's last year on this date.

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

December definitely looks more variable than what happened over the past few weeks.  

Yea, I have a feeling my snowmobile is going to be unused for at least 2 weeks or more. I'm eyeing the late week storm, but even then -- meh. Too many warm-ups.

December 1st kicks off the snowmobile season. This year it's a no-go on day 1.

18 hours ago, Baum said:

^

NOAA.  They must be basing that on Dec.1- Dec. 3. There's a 50/50 likelihood that won't be correct and a 50/50 chance it will.

They had Nov as above..... Look how that turned out.

14 hours ago, slow poke said:

Not sure if it was because Thanksgiving was kinda early this year or all the snow and cold we've had already but it seems like we should be tracking snow storms instead of the rain we're going to get this weekend here in MI. The cold season got a early start but at this point us out door winter enthusiast in lower MI have nothing to show for it. Snowmobile trails open this Sat but there won't be any snow for them to open. I'm not a fan of Nov cold and snow, we almost always seem to pay for it in Dec with the snow we did get melting and rain instead of snow storms. I know it's not even Dec yet and things can change in a hurry so we'll see how the next couple weeks go.

Looks like mid month. Not the greatest start on the season. Wasted that pattern on November and we really didn't see any major LES outbreaks.

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I will gladly take the pain. The Detroit area has seen anywhere from 3 to 12" of snow this November but shoveling has not once been necessary.  It has been a parade of small wet snowfalls. In fact of my 5.9" of snow, only once (November 15th, 1.5") has shoveling even been possible. While it is certainly nice to see it only puts me all the more in the Winter mood and missing the 1st big storm of the season was the capper. Im in fierce Need-Winter mode now!

I picked up like 2 inches.... You can see my webcam on my sig now... still there.

I let my warm south facing driveway melt away. Not going to do anymore than necessary. 

Man... just get the snow guns going.

Lake effect please.

Looks like a couple inches in Howell.... nothing all that impressive. In fact, this would be my 3rd biggest storm of November 2018.

I'm curious to see a full DTX map.

Well, expecting 6 - 8 here.

Hopefully the changeover comes sooner than anticipated. 

My county is going to be the dividing line in SE Michigan. I could get 8 inches, I could get 2 inches.

Gaylord looking good. Pigeon River State forest -- yes please.

yea, the pattern for December looks very meh.... Not a torch, but not a deep trough either. Hopefully we didn't blow our load on November.

4 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Not sure what all the hype is on long range. Per 12z GFS it looks like poo. 

Big time poo.

Hoping this upcoming storm hits north for a quick ride during the day time hours.... then it could be weeks.

22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like there could be an overlap area that gets in on 2 November warning criteria snows just a few years apart. The other one being the November 20-21, 2015 storm:

Best storm ever.

I'm going to play grinch again.

The pattern after this storm sucks.

Lets hope the 06z GFS was a hiccup, because that storm next week really crapped out.

31 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

You have more snow on the ground on November 19 than the vast majority of the subforum will have at any time this winter.

He usually passes our season total by Dec 15th annually.