Nelson

Started with a little freezing rain here - Now mixing with snow. 30F and falling.

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

taint getting close to madison on this run 

 

 

Gotta ride the taint to get the best accums.

Feeling good about my MBY - may have to deal with some "taint" but we should be close to some of the higher accums. 

Unfortunate how far off the GFS was with this in the 72+ range - never good when the NAM locks on to something in the long term first.

Euro retains it title and the NW trend is back.

Also, with that look, and the agreement (which is a small feat in and of itself), something is going to pop. It may be too far west for most of us to care but it's something.

Outside of the western portion of the MW, probably... but it's sooooo boring otherwise. I get pleasure in showing the trough slowly nudging east. 

It's coming....

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Shuffling deck chairs on the titanic

yeah, i guess 'better' is relative.

Inching toward a better look over the last day or so. The western trough has been moving ever so slightly to the East each run. 

Hopefully the agreement in the 8-10 is a sign that things are settling down a little bit and we will have some better model handling in the long range. Doesn't look good in the 8-10 but maybe some signs of life after that if we can get that ridge to slide east. 

No bueno (if you like snow). At least there is some agreement.

18 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

just ride the euro

 

edit: or what ricky said, best in the game etc

Certainly when it comes to 4+ days out, it's the way to go. Folks would be a lot less stressed out if they followed this advice.

Gonna need to get this resolved before placing any bets.

Can't ask for much more in terms of looks for the extended.

The NAMs. Huge jump in snowfall overall for these models. 

I haven't had a chance to measure but, judging by the pic, I'd say we are approaching 5" here. Still -SN here but some nice returns out west. Hoping they hold together - if they do, I think we stand a chance at 6-7".

Do we have anyone from NE IA? That area has been under solid returns for hours...

That area of returns over NE IA is not moving much. Bet there are some sweet rates in that area. 

Last few runs are too close, thermally, IMBY - would like to see if shift SE a bit. Either way, starting to look likely that someone in the immediate region is going to see more snow...

Looks like the main energy holds back resulting in a weaker storm overall. 

Still has a nice look to it but there has been a weakening trend overall. Could be rain for those south of the WI/IL border but could be looking at a decent snow north of the border.

Yep, totally possible but the setup continues to show potential. 

Euro 12z from today.

12z GFS took a jump to the NW but the overall look is still there.

Continues to be a favorable look from the Euro. Like the look of that SER (southeast ridge). This weekends system is lacking that...

1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said:

That looks like a soaker.

Potentially but not too hung up on the details at this point. It's not often you see that look from the Euro and it's shown that for two consecutive runs so I think there is nice potential there.

FV3 in general agreement with Euro. GFS handling the wave a little different and brings it through a day or two earlier. Either way, looking active for next week.

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

00z Euro, you're alright.

yum...