Nelson

Liking 4-5" for the Madison area crew. Already been mentioned but too bad there isn't some colder air around. Moisture feed looks nice.

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

It looks like cromartie picked up about 6". Kind of interesting that he hasn't posted on this thread recently about how it's going to bust and that a torch is just around the corner. Here is a representation of how his yard looks:

 

That's how trolls be...

Got 6.2” on the north side of town.  Looks like southern Dane county was probably the jackpot zone for this storm.  The rates from about 7PM to 2 AM are what did it 

Absolutely, I think we were at about 2" before that band set up. I didn't get a chance to take proper measurement here but I would say were right around 7". Definitely exceeded expectations for mby. Bigger totals just south and east of here.

Moderate to heavy snow for several hours west of Madison. Very fluffy - have not had a chance to measure but have to around 4-5”


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Yeah, like the look of this if it can hold. Feels like that should produce somewhere.

 

Southern Wisco is here but as madwx mentioned we are riding a razors edge with this one. We need to find Daddylonglegs and get that LaCrosse perspective.

44 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Wasn't this almost the exact same setup model wise that the pre-Christmas snowstorm did? The Euro was farthest north and amped, the GFS was farthest SE and weakest, and the CMC was dickin around in the middle, right?

Someone will correct me but I think the large scale pattern is a little different than the pre-christmas storm so probably not fair to compare the model performance.

stop it ^

Meanwhile...

 

What a difference a day makes..........

 

Euro has been pretty consistent with that system for the last several major runs - actually came NW a little with the overnight suite. GFS has been bouncing on either side of it. EPS has been fairly consistent as well. All that said, I'm not buying shit until Sunday or Monday.

 

48 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

you're telling that to someone who has a past history doing some light tolling on this forum himself.

am i really going to take the time to go back and bump about 50 posts? probably not.

we have palm root ball killing cold to focus on right now.

But I feel like you're reformed and have started down a more righteous path... That said, you're right, the cold should be the focus.

-4F currently - didn't crack 0 today.

On 12/21/2022 at 2:08 PM, Chicago Storm said:

i have a lot of bump trolling to do this weekend.

he'll be able to get his jollies off with tth responses.

Don't feed the trolls man...

Sorry...

Just now, madwx said:

Same.  Think we’ll be able to stack some nice dendrites overnight 

Agreed - should see some decent ratios before the front blasts through tomorrow. Not the big dog we wanted but should be a snowy mess nonetheless. 

Very light snow falling here west of Madison.

SREF or die

I’m liking 6-8” for Madison. Should see higher ratios with mostly a front end bump vs wrap around. Throw in some winds on Friday and it will be as wintery as anyone could ask for.


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FXUS63 KMKX 192135
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
335 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 335 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022)

Wednesday through Monday:

Confidence continues to increase in a potent winter storm later
this week that could bring blizzard conditions to southern
Wisconsin. There is high probability for significant winter
impacts in the region, with the focus now on narrowing down the
timing and location for the most impactful weather. This storm
will have ample moisture and forcing for significant snowfall,
with confidence increasing for 6+ inches. Latest model ensemble
snow probabilities show the higher end numbers right across the
forecast area. This is not surprising, as latest guidance shifted
a bit back towards the southeast with the low track, knocking out
any mixed precip or rain potential in the southeast that was
showing up earlier. Ensemble probabilities are on the high end
for wind gusts of 40-50 mph during the height of the storm later
Thursday into Friday night. Some guidance is showing the potential
for gusts to 60 mph, though not ready to bite on these higher
numbers yet.

Given the potential for this storm to have high end impacts,
decided to pull the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch Thursday
through Friday night. Warm advection aloft ahead of the storm will
likely result in the snow starting by Wednesday evening, but the
worst of the weather is expected to hold off until Thursday. There
is still a lot of time for the track/timing of this storm to
change. When/where the low deepens and the track of the low will
likely continue to waffle a bit from model run to model run, so
keep up with the latest forecast as the finer details will
continue to be worked out.

Another concern with the late week system will be the cold wind
chills on the back side of the storm, with 15 to 25 below possible
later Friday into Friday night.

0Z CIPS. Decent list.....

Snagged 3.9”


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2 minutes ago, TheNiño said:

Unsubscribe.

point proven

3 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

this would make ban 3 but who’s counting. didn’t realize forum rules allowed for making new accounts to evade bans.

Accounts are based on email so people can keep making accounts and coming back as much as they are willing to create new email accounts.  There really isn't anything you can do other than to keep banning them once you figure it out. The dopamine effect of getting people to react to your comments is just too much for some folks to resist. I probably shouldn't have acknowledge the comments but frustration got the best of me. 

15 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

This guy is a troll from way back. Time for mod action. Adds nothing but acrimony.

I know he is - just felt like I needed to say something given that we don't have a mod. Not that a mod is necessarily going to do anything. If they need to get their kicks trolling a weather board, they are going to find a way.

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

yeah because being miserable the second you step outdoors is awesome.

What's miserable is coming into these threads and having to endure your comments, sarcastic or not.

Also, by responding, I understand that I'm giving you exactly what you're looking for...