FLweather

It's that backwoods moonshine Mr Burns.

Might have you on the floor crawling.

11 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Anybody know where I can find an anchored high and a gulf low??

Antique shop at your local flea market?!

While you at it see if they have any telephone booths.

The only bright side is I do see the possibility of Token flakes as the ULL swings through on the 1st. 

That's for the piedmont of NC. Should be a good NWF event for the mountains.

1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

Ignoring the early success in the foothills, I think ILMRoss said it earlier...something just feels off with this setup.  It doesnt have a normal CAD look and it certainly doesnt appear robust enough to sustain into tomorrow deep into NC.  I'm just not seeing a ton of ice with this tomorrow across the Triad.

You have to realize. The angle and trajectory of the H5 level is not a "typical" miller b transfer.

Ideally it wouldn't be further south and digging more. It's not and doesn't appear to be doing so. That along with the Parent HP center way up north.

Enjoy what snow falls tonight and what little bit of ice you get. This time tomorrow won't have nothing to show for it.

5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Definitely on the low side of recent model runs, but they still have a day to adjust.

Ehhh.

This setup is not like a typical Miller B fashion.

Imo the h5 ULL & energy kind of at a high latitude. Considering too the parent High(high latitude) and it's ridge axis entending south. Not much of a meso high into PA,MD,VA.

If you have noticed too the parent high doesn't really move. That indicates blocking up stream.

But considering all in all I'd said that's a reasonable call.

1 minute ago, Berlin1926 said:

RAH is unimpressed as of 0315 this morning. Does everyone agree with them now that they've had more models to review?


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

At the beginning of the extended forecast, an upper level low will
be near Chicago, with a surface low slightly south of the upper low.
The upper low will weaken as it shifts southeast. Meanwhile, the
surface low over the Midwest will fill as Miller B cyclogenesis
develops near the Carolinas, with a surface low somewhere off the
Norfolk coast by Monday morning.

By Sunday morning have removed any mention of snow from the
forecast, as it appears that the maximum temperature in the column
should be warm enough to melt any falling snow, so have simply gone
with rain or freezing rain around sunrise. By mid morning all
locations should have surface temperatures rise above freezing, and
precipitation should fall as rain for the rest of the day. There
will be a fair gradient in temperatures across the forecast area,
with the Triad remaining in the upper 30s while southern counties
will likely push into the 50s. The development of the coastal low
appears to be slightly farther east in the 00Z model runs than
previous runs, which should keep the bulk of Sunday night`s
precipitation a bit farther east. Still have likely pops primarily
to the east of I-95, where precipitation would fall as all rain.
However, any precipitation making its way into central North
Carolina from the decaying inland low should have enough cold air
that a slight chance of freezing rain or snow cannot be ruled out.

As the upper low continues tracking to the east, have put slight
chance pops back into the forecast on Monday to better collaborate
with neighboring offices, although the most widespread precipitation
will have already fallen the day before. A slight chance of
rain/snow will remain in the forecast Monday night, primarily north
and east of Raleigh. With both the upper and surface lows east of
the region by Tuesday morning, all precipitation will come to an end
with clearing skies Tuesday. Skies will remain clear Tuesday night
and Wednesday, with increasing clouds Wednesday night and Thursday
in advance of the next system. Temperatures will start the period
below normal and finally rise back to normal values by Thursday.

Hey how much did y'all get in Person county with the last storm?

39 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The RGEM absolutely crushes 85N in the triad and triangle to the state line in Virginia with an awful ice storm. 

That run looks funny to me.

3-4"+ of rain along the NC/VA border. With a inch + of ice.

Looking at Nam & Wrf. 

The CAD might be colder and deeper than what the models are picking up atm.

One thing I am noticing between the two. Is the parent HP is well into Canada. But there is a strong ridge axis extending well south.

So there is a possibility of the models not picking up on a secondary HP some where around PA,MD,Va.

6z Nam did have a secondary in VA.

Not trying to sound like Debbie downer. But looking at  wrf and nam front end thump will probably not existent. Before WAA takes over. Only bright side Nam develops secondary HP in VA as main batch of precip moves in.

Moderate band of showers pushing through, occasional flash or two of lightning.

Probably be over with in a hour. Wind shift should occur roughly around midnight. Temps falling into low mid 50s by daybreak. Struggling to hit 62-63 tomorrow.

10 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

That air mass to the north is just so cold, it would probably overcome a bad placed LP. One thing I just saw on the 12Z ICON that bears watching is that it’s popping a meso high in VA. 

I've been reading through the thread tonight after I got off work. This caught my eye after the reading your comment...

The icon showing a HP over the mountains. Indicates 4 things.

1. someone is going to get screwed.(lee side shadow)

2. cad  will be stronger 

3. That's a clear indication of a leeside trough.

4. Models still haven't a clue. Placement of SLP and h850 lp.

It's clear the cold coming in. It's clear that there should be some sort of CAD. It's clear that it wouldn't take much.

It's a good probably that surface temps up to 900-925mb will border line I85/I-40 north.

This is for Thursday into Friday.

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Anybody want to chime in why the GFS all of a sudden jumps on board with the Para for the Thursday system?

It's the gfs. It's got issues. 

6zgfs, icon, nam... Still shows snow for northern NC.

Still not out of realm of possibility that Thursday system over performs.

Didn't really realize it was going to rain today.

Cool clamy day. Light rain. Moist and fog most of the day.

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Just got home from having a couple beers. Gfs is just a beat down on that backside ccb. If anything you have to love the continuity amongst consecutive runs. Gfs looks promising I dare say.

One thing I don't like about other sources they don't show the humidity levels... Ex tropical tidbits.

That back side there will be a very sharp cutoff along the VA border towards the mountains... Once the h7 low passes. Should fill in NE NC.

I wouldn't get too excited.

Not yet.

Need some changes.

Very rarely a Miller A b produces, especially this far south.

Considering.

I'm not too optimistic of the 18z. It's five o'clock sum where.

Quiet a bit of frost Tuesday morning.

Last few days have been a tell of two seasons.

Chilly in the morning warm in the afternoon.

6 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

21:1????

Rain ratio.

2 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

18z GEFS mean would imply a storm that progresses from ZR -> IP -> SN(potentially just IP -> SN) for much of NC. I’m not really worried about the snow maps so much as pattern recognition. 

So...

Backwards ehh?

Man!!! It's been years I've seen a southern California ULL at that latitude and longitude.

Looking at the WV tropics are sounding off tonight. That's a shit ton of southern stream energy that will be ejected over the next few days.

6 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

Thunder snow in Roxboro. 1M VIS at KLHZ. This over performed for this part of the state. 

Not surprised.

It will snow in roxboro before any other location. Va/NC line. Danville to GSO east

6 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

GFS looked great around 144 tonight before the storm seemingly split in two.

Gfs been suffering from convective feedback issues. Which honestly most of the globals have been as well. Wouldn't really put much faith past 84 hours. 

Honestly the Canadian looks fishy at 0z

North GA, TN, NC, Va mountains look promising for some snow today. That system over the SE isn't decaying all that fast. Holding on rather good atm.

Pretty bad when Dallas cashes in and as the system heads east drys up in the process.

13 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I went west and it was snow and sleet in Alamance. Just rain here in Raleigh still but temp dropping. This is a BL bust overall.

Hm