RogueWaves

OFC. Ordered up by the secret magnet keeper himself DTX After careful deliberation, have opted to transition the Winter Storm Watch into the Winter Storm Warning for the 3 counties in far southeast Michigan. The highest accumulations seem most likely nearer the MI/IN/OH state line, but the trajectory of the system also puts downriver locations such as Wyandotte into a favorable zone for a slightly extended period of moderate to heavy snowfall. A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued on north into the I-69 corridor angling northeast into the Thumb where some lake enhancement will also come into play late in the day Wednesday.

Just glad to see BELOW freezing temps going into start time, especially after today's mini-torch and all the slop storms last winter.

Big Dogs don't hunt here in January anymore. Feb's got the ingredients lining up tho

Stebo, is that you??

Guessing @Stebo not active here anymore??

Impressive by DTW standards. Flash-backs of the Bliz of '99 airport nightmare by NW Airlines. Hopefully no repeat. Encouraged my sister NOT to fly out tomorrow and she re-booked for Thur. Issued at 657 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 AVIATION... Early evening satellite imagery indicates a wedge of mostly clear sky over much of SE MI surrounded by MVFR clouds which are expected to fill in from the south and west during the night. MVFR then holds until snow spreads in from IN/OH toward sunrise when a quick progression down into IFR takes place. Some variation of intensity is expected during the morning while the leading edge moves south to north across the region. The peak snow intensity remains on track for the afternoon with LIFR/VLIFR in 1/2SM snow on average, and dips to 1/4SM in heavy snow also possible, for several hours as the low pressure system strengthens while moving through the Ohio valley. The low center moves over NW OH, Lake Erie, and southern Ontario by Wednesday evening resulting in a uniform east wind increasing and backing NW along the terminal corridor. Gusts near 25 knots add some blowing snow to the pattern as system snow diminishes mid Wednesday evening. For DTW... An area of MVFR clouds near the OH border move toward DTW mid to late evening and then hold with broken coverage until snow arrives toward sunrise. A 5 AM start time remains on track followed by a quick transition into IFR early in the morning. Some variation of intensity is possible during the mid to late morning before the peak snow rate occurs in the afternoon. Rate near 1 inch per hour in LIFR/VLIFR of 1/2SM to 1/4SM is likely for several hours before snow diminishes toward Wednesday evening. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Wednesday. * High for snow late tonight through Wednesday. * Moderate to high for visibility of 1/2SM or less Wednesday afternoon.

This be the foundation snow. There are other dogs hunting in our future.

DTX trying to keep this one on the rails National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023 .UPDATE... Evening observations are being monitored upstream for checks of onset timing on the SE MI snow event set to begin toward sunrise and then ramp up during the morning. The leading edge of precipitation associated with the textbook Gulf coast system is entering far southern IL/western KY at mid evening. This is about on schedule based on model comparisons which then project at least light snow ongoing by the 5AM to 7 AM Warning/Advisory start times from the Ohio border up to the northern Detroit suburbs. This initial phase of the event puts down just enough accumulation for hazardous travel during the morning travel peak in the Detroit metro area. Some wavering of coverage and intensity is then expected around mid morning as the leading isentropic ascent and moisture transport plays out against resident dry air over the south half of Lower Mi as indicated in the latest 00Z DTX sounding. A transition to a more dynamically forced phase of the event begins by late morning with a notable afternoon peak of coverage and intensity. The afternoon phase is driven by an excellent combination of coupled jet, short wave DCVA, and occlusion forcing that occurs along and north of a classic NW Ohio surface low track. A band of heavy snow is then expected around mid afternoon roughly centered on a line from Adrian to metro Detroit to Port Huron matching up with maximum elevated instability along the south flank of the TROWAL axis. Snow rate of 1 inch per hour is likely during this time with significant impacts to the evening peak travel period. Event total accumulation of 3 to 6 inches Advisory and 6 to 8 inches Warning are on target by the time snow diminishes Wednesday evening. &&

3X was a bit of a stretch (forgot to add Sunday's event) but not by much. With Sunday, I'm at 8.8" so "only" 2X in a place better known for T-storm wx. The ref to 04-05 was the Christmas storm that buried that area Louisville/Cincinnati. They must've been ahead of DTW early on regardless of the seasonal total.

That's like 3X my total, which is totally unacceptable in my way of thinking. But prolly happened in 04-05 too

DTW channeling MSP?

But we've got the x-fer east also tugging against all traditional odds. 991 mb actually

Normally a $$ call but Downriver has had the hot hand the past 2 seasons so there's that arguing against

Then issues an updated snowfall map with 6 inch line further north than before, lol. A rare nice-to-have for a sig S. Stream system is zero "other p-types" in my hourly at DTW. 3rd bonus, lower DP's preserved a fair amount of patchy snow despite 40F and sun all damned day!

The Beavis of snow cover

At least it's not 50F like the day b4 the storms last winter, but yeah, the one day we get a "warm sun" go figure!

..aaand we've lost the ORD crew

0z NAM reflecting CLE's mention of the SLP "drifting east" as it occludes and x-fers. Lingers snows here all night

Very dynamic and cold storm w/high winds

WPC seems to be going with the NAM camp

Out to what hour? Only goes to h18 on TT

For here, the old saying that it's always something applies. Hard-hitter storms for Detroit Metro proper are a rare breed. Feb '65, Jan '92 are the only two that come to mind where they were free to shoot north in Canada without the dreaded dry slot or WTOD mode so common. Don't remember if 2/5/11 kept going north in Canada?

I just finished reading their updates. Agree with the impact-based reasoning/decision. I remember some awesome front-enders years ago and it is a traffic nightmare that a simple last-minute WWA headline or SWS doesn't do justice.

Front-end thump snow like we used to get a lot of in late 80's

LOL, Watches expanded S in Ohio. Which office is winning that battle??