RogueWaves

Didn't look side-by-side but I think it was deeper as well?

Definitely N @ h72 (snow lingers here until 12z Thur morning)

Punting this to Ohio??

18z GFS was the best more amped run yet. Figures Euro would say "nah"

Snowblowers maybe, but I never saw so many Municiple plows scraping what amounted to slush scraps here

Heard the SREFs look better

Dbl Oof. Like IZZI said, could go either way from here. Dumpster fire torch winter = OH magnet. Anyone find that a bit strange??

You mean a classic SEMI Land of the 5-9" special? Prolly. If it hits hard enough tho, impacts could be more on the order of a larger event.

Can thank the lack of cold air for that Saw that, lol'd. Downriver got 3" from today's "non-event"

Through to what, white covered ground that should be reflecting it's effects. Most certainly my melting from underneath is due to zero frozen turf leading into this. A couple days sprinkled amongst weeks of mostly >32F temps makes for a November style snow today.

Getting beat by SOH just sucks whatever the month, but especially in JAN. I think they're ahead of me for seasonal totals, lol

Thinking around 2" here. It "just" covered grass blades as the heavier stuff was ending, and it's been a melt-fest from the ground warmth since. Still a very picturesque and beautiful day with the trees covered. Like an early December system, but 6 wks tardy.

I remember that one. GHD-1 round-2 for Detroit metro is was a nice surprise hard smack-down. I think it was you that said the PV Bliz was a lame storm and the PV did all the work. Well, with like zero cold infusion, this will be the complete opposite. Can't possibly get both here, lol

Dayton with 7" Chicago what has happened to you??

Not a Met obv. I meant that the flakes aloft don't generate at 7 or 8:1 where it's cold. The melting mush happens lower maybe even after landing in 33F conditions like this pm

I'm actually a fan of wetter snow, but a few degrees colder would've been nice, lol. Real-deal cold and this could've had the rare bliz potential for SEMI. Still looking ok for an impactful event. Anything to get plow piles around so when the inevitable melt-off occurs, it at least looks the season.

Thought it was you that always complained about weak rates and mix issues with SEMI storms.

It'll be falling at 10:1 but what it becomes after hitting the ground is the issue.

@Powerball for you Have been focusing on a strong impulse that will eject out of the base of the upstream trof and reach the area Wednesday. This will be a fast hitting type of system with just snow (expected at this time). There is a high likelihood of travel impacts Wednesday into early Thursday

Could still "go south" ofc like many times for DTW, but trends to keep strengthening longer are coming together, which the 20.0z GEM had shown already Thur evening.

DTX "confidence higher than normal" due to consistency of GEFS/EPS at 500 mb Attention during the coming days will be affixed on the mid latitude cyclone/winter storm system that appears set to track through the Lower Mississippi to Ohio River Valley Wednesday. Will not get into details much since the storm system remains some 84 hours out, rather will offer some commentary on the predictability of the system. Definitely think its noteworthy to remark on the little to no variability in the 500mb EOF patterns of the 22.12Z GEFS cluster analysis. This lack of difference is between both eof1 and eof2 and in the 500mb height difference signal at both Day3 and Day4. It is also interesting, or maybe should not be surprising then, to not see much d(prog)/dt variability in the 500mb vorticity field through roughly the first 60 hours. Generally looking at a low variance, strong closed off 500mb anomaly that digs clear through the Desert SW into northern Mexico. Thereafter, variability does begin to increase with the structure and timing of as many as 3 shortwave centers that push into portions of western Canada, but do not see much to suggest these vorticity anomalies will impact the phasing or strengthening of the low pressure system as it tracks northeastward out of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Survey of 22.00Z EPS member postage stamps is also suggestive of low solution variance. The EPS members are showing a single mode characterized by heart of cold side deformation/trowal impacting Lower Michigan (to varying extents) with warm conveyor missing well to the south and east. What will need to be sorted out is the quality and magnitude of moisture that will advect meridionally into the system here locally rather than just get shunted eastward. There are some indications in the deterministic solutions that suggests convection and latent heating over the Southeast United States could impact the low track. With that stated, the forecasted structure and placement of the coupled upper level jet into Ontario and Quebec supports a higher confidence in a second low pressure center hanging close to Southeast Michigan even if some east coast transfer wants to happen. Taking the lack of solution variability in the EPS and GEFS in account, confidence is higher than normal that the system will impact the area Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. The uncertainty is how far northward the deformation snow will impact and what sort of snow gradient will exist on the northern edge.

SHE doesn't want "an inch or two"

Wow. I get it that it's been puke-worthy so far, but give this some time, like a few days before throwing towels (you ORD Peeps). Just need the GEM to hold serve and amp a bit at the last minute. All will be good

Every legit snowstorm west of us this winter has shown the same weaker outlook and then trended upwards closer in to game time. Be surprised if this throws that trend out a window.

Personally I think a little bit more N stream interaction will be back in play and shift the swath a bit NW more in line with the 21/0z GEM's portrayal. Can we get a 989 mb curving up just to our east like it shows (ala PV Bliz) Idk. One can hope. Yep. Solid GRR advisory level system in play for SEMI/NWOH