Bostonseminole

GFS ends the trend

Is any model showing a stall yet?

the low center actually looks further NW than GFS lol

will be better but not sure as good as gfs

winds should be impressive down at the cape with this one also

oops was looking at the 6z.. 12z much better wow..

GFS needs more work

that webcam in stcroix still working somehow but power seems to be off around it

recon headed out

vortex @911  dropsone  had 12kts (From the N at 14mph)

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

 

irma?

905.7 extr

looks like one more pass by recon

HAM radio just reported " total destruction" in Dominica

live reports now from Dominica.. but little info coming out

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Does anyone know what the terrain is like on St Croix? I'm wondering if a direct hit there could disrupt the core similarly to what happened with the impact to Dominica. Obviously it would be terrible news for St Croix but it might save PR from total catastrophic impact.

highest peak is 1k, not sure if that will do much.. vs Dominica almost 5k

Just now, Mountain_Patch said:

I don't know, honestly. Intensification isn't understood which is really what led me to this site to begin with. This has been my reading material as of late: https://emanuel.mit.edu/limits-hurricane-intensity 

Thanks for the link

Just now, Amped said:

I didn't think Dominica's housing would withstand CAT1 winds.  It is built on the side of a mountain in a jungle with 2 way streets only wide enough for 1 car and no guardrails. Lots of houses look like huts.  

Live HAM Radio reports coming in from Dominica

Just now, Mountain_Patch said:

It's an estimate.

who's estimate? is there a link?

Someone said ~910mb is the max the area can sustain in terms of strength? how accurate is that? 

6 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. 

 

Also; If you'd do a little googling you'd see HAM radio operators are still in communication. Just because some services are out doesn't mean all are. 
http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateur-on-st-lucia-relays-reports-of-hurricane-devastation-on-dominica

did you actually read the link you posted?

“Trees down, river has flooded half the village, cars are all over, most houses have lost their roofs or are destroyed, the area between his house and the church is just flattened…in his words, ‘devastation is total,’

Let's hope Ray is correct, ERC is the only thing that will save PR from a brutal hit from Maria.

920mb  

Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 153kts (~ 176.1mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (40°) from the flight level center at 17:54:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 245° at 6kts (From the WSW at 7mph)

I remember this webcam from Irma..

http://www.gotostcroix.com/live/

2 minutes ago, esullivan said:

 

Link to what you're listening to? "Right on Q" not much info

you can try this guy, he's an ARO who was listening in, but he must have lost his station

https://www.pscp.tv/W4LVH/1gqxvOEllNQKB