Bostonseminole

33 in burlington

So I went back to see how the call of the so-called "all cold crew" went against the "seasons in seasons crew" and we can just see who had the better call:
The seasons in seasons crew said on 9/27 " There’s going to be several days next week in the low- mid 80’s with dews. Please look at modeling" followed by "Lol at 70-75 and 50"
So the cold crew correctly called for temps in the 70s while the seasons crew called for 80s yet some how the cold crew is in denial?  Of course the seasons crew is now focusing on next week with calls of "When it’s 87 /69 in CON or BTV next week .. let’s revisit".  Again the so-called cold crew has tempered expectations and they are in denial?
Sure we're above normal and I haven't seen anyone deny that but just because someone counters an extreme call doesn't mean that they are in denial.

1.11" so far

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great day 68/52 cool night incoming

1.74" so far back home

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh cool. Can you post them here?

you don't access to them?

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol . Umm no

i guess if he was looking at the GEFS sure

59 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Keep an eye on what happens in VA today. That's the environment that models are trying to move into SNE Tuesday.

The extended HRRR does have some updraft helicity swaths near ORH during the early morning. So the threat is there, but I would be more excited if the low level circulation was actually going to make a pass at New England.

tor warning in VA right now.. 

Heavy Rain incoming.. northern MA to NH border seems like the heaviest right now, 3-5"?  any chance for severe? isolated tornado? 

looks like we get some decent rains Tuesday from Florence, exact location TBD and then a nice cool weekend finally.

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s zero color anywhere . Usually by now you’ve got some color starting to show other than stressed out maples 

wrong, I have color showing in some trees

looks like time for me to go back to sleep, see you when the weather is interesting around here

5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Just keep in mind of the rain impacts this will have in addition to king tides. Track isn't the only story.

yeah, some of the areas SW of us have gotten lots of rain already.. 

nc again on GFS

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. I don't hold it against them, but I think often times wx folks see potential and then contort themselves to prove how that potential can be realized, mitigating factors be damned. I think it's better to do the inverse, especially with tropical. Recognize the potential but look at the factors that would keep a system from realizing that potential.

Can there be a high impact event somewhere along the EC next week? Absolutely. But we're so far out and the setup looks complicated enough that I think smart money is still on a less impactful outcome, particularly up here were we generally need a lot to align for a landfall, let along a sig tropical event. 

I think looking at the 26c depth is your best bet but if someone knows of another source that'd be awesome. 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

(note the website is giving me some trouble today but is usually reliable)

it's really not that far out, that high will need to start influencing florence around 4 days from now, I know thing can change in 4 days, but IMO it's seems unlikely the models are so far off on it's strength.

the UKMET seems to be hinting at even further south, GA coast, N. Florida..

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes. My only point is that climo is against it. 

I think its Carolinas or fish.

fish seems unlikely, carolina seems reasonable still ~ 7 days out

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes absolutely, positively zero sense.

Major hurricane landfalls in New England are so exceptionally rare that climo absolutely favors benign outcomes.

Additionally, not one hurricane....ever, that crossed the position that Florence in right now has EVER struck the US mainland.....0.000000000.

As for intensity, you are just regurgitating what I have already said...sure, it may peak at 155mph, but it will not hit the mid atlantic coast that that intensity. 

 

always a first..:)

can we merge the threads or we plan to keep 2?

2 minutes ago, klw said:

I am supposed to be going to Block Island for a wedding from Thursday to Sunday next week.  That could be interesting.

that sounds like more fun!!

can't wait for my 2" of rain and 25mph winds.. maybe we don't even get rain 

Moved my son into the WPI dorms yesterday, told him for the money I'm paying I'd better get some good observations during winter!

meh up here as usual

Haters gonna hate Ray, don't worry,  we all love you