wolfie09

Snow picking up here, smallish flakes..Hopefully tonight is more “powder” then “wet”..

25 a month or like 250 annually..I usually go from end of November-end of March, so like $100, but well worth it to me..

Pretty good consensus between the mesoscale models, last day I’ll be able to post wb maps, might as well make the most of it lol

Some SR Guidance, like syrmax said, 1/2” hr type stuff..

already rejoicing Knyc

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches are expected. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest snow amounts across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult, including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow 3k

3k nam looks good especially from Wednesday am into Thursday am, estimated 1.2” LE in a 24 hr period..(6z wed-6z Thursday)

Could be a decent accumulation overnight for whoever gets under the ivt..

who needs spring..

Morning AFD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... For western and north central NY, this next weather system bears a strong resemblance to the last long-duration event from this past Wednesday evening through Saturday morning. This will result in an extended period of mostly light snow on Tuesday and Wednesday with steadier snows east of the lakes due to upsloping and lake enhancement. Two-day storm totals may approach a foot in some of these locations, but for the most part 12 and 24 hour totals appear to fall into the advisory category. Keep in mind that although this is a similar set up, subtle variations in timing, location, and wind direction may result in different snowfall amounts for any given location. Now for the details... On Tuesday an inverted trough will extend from a strong coastal low westward to a closed 500 mb low which will be across the Lower Great Lakes. This trough axis will gradually drop southward across western New York Tuesday with increasing moisture and snow showers. Steadiest snows will be east of Rochester where a general 1-3 inches of snow is expected during the day. Northwesterly winds will increase Tuesday night and Wednesday, with increasing moisture from the coastal low. Wrap around moisture, northwesterly upslope flow, and some lake enhancement will result in periods of snow showers, which will have the most accumulating power across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and on the Tug Hill. One subtle difference with this storm system compared to the last, is temperatures should run a couple of degrees cooler, which could support a little better lower elevation accumulation, although accumulations will still be somewhat limited during the day Wednesday with the high March sun angle. Slightly drier air will build in from the west with a narrow ridge axis, with snow becoming less widespread from west to east. Snow showers will last most of the night east of Lake Ontario where moisture will continue to be ample and where upsloping and lake enhancement will continue.. 3k nam

And still going..

Kbuf For western and north central NY, this next weather system bears a strong resemblance to the last long-duration event from this past Wednesday evening through Saturday morning. This said, there are subtle differences which will influence when and where the steadiest snow falls. One thing the past event did show is that in a moist environment, marginally cold enough temperatures aloft can still produce significant lake enhancement in combination with upsloping. On Monday night, an inverted surface trough will extend from a developing low off the mid-Atlantic coast to the upper low which will be in the Great Lakes region. This will bring increasing chances of snow, especially east of Lake Ontario where mid-level winds will transport additional Atlantic moisture. This surface trough axis will then drop southward on Tuesday as the upper low settles near the Lower Great Lakes. This will result in a bit more widespread snow showers on Tuesday with northwesterly winds starting to provide some upslope and lake enhancement. Through Tuesday, snow accumulation should be minimal (less than 2 inches) in most locations. The exception is east and southeast of Lake Ontario where enhancement from the inverted trough may bring several inches of snow, possibly approaching advisory criteria. Northwesterly winds will increase Tuesday night and Wednesday, with increasing moisture from the coastal low. Wrap around moisture, northwesterly upslope flow, and some lake enhancement will result in periods of snow showers, which will have the most accumulating power across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and on the Tug Hill. Those that saw the greatest snow accumulations this past Thursday night into Friday could be having deja vu come Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to run slightly below average through this periods, with daily highs in upper 20s to low 30s, and nightly lows in the high teens to mid 20s Snow showers will likely continue southeast of the lakes and across higher terrain Wednesday night in cold northwest flow. The snow showers will gradually diminish Thursday and Thursday night.

Should see several inches out of this situation.. 0z euro

Hazardous weather outlook Low pressure will move slowly northward off the New England coast Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will be much too far east to have any direct influence on our region, but moist northwest flow and lake enhancement in its wake will produce periods of snow through the middle of the week. The most persistent snow will be found across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau, and also southeast of Lake Ontario where moderate accumulations are possible

Looks like we do this all over again mid week... The long term period will start off quite wintry with another deep closed low over the northeastern United States. A strong North Atlantic low will remain well east of New England, but abundant wrap around moisture, northwest upslope flow, and some lake enhancement will bring the likelihood of snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday. The setup will probably be similar to this week, with only minor accumulations at lower elevations and the potential for moderate accumulations across higher terrain. A similar temperature pattern will continue through Wednesday, with temperatures running a good 5- 8 degrees below normal, with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, and even some teens across the Southern Tier and Lewis County. Looking a little farther ahead, both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a few days of warmer weather next weekend. This warming appears to be temporary, with both models suggesting cold air will build back into the Great Lakes for much of the following week

Glad to see we have a well aligned WNW flow

KSyr seems to be missing the heaviest just to the south, rare instance where the city will score more..

Probably going to be a nice band just south of here this afternoon/evening..Could boost some totals in and around ksyr..

1st “official” measurement, 2.7” as of 730 am..

Light-Moderate snow with a temp of 28, no problems sticking..

Also Potential for some nice streamers, majority of Guidance shows this, especially south of ksyr.. 24 hour precipitation

Still some potential for tonight/early morning, NMM similar to the 3k..

Snow starts back up overnight tonight according to the 3k nam, snows for about 24-30 hours, doesn’t add up to a ton but this might be our last shot, at the very least it will look and feel wintry..

The strikes between cnj-nyc is snow..