wolfie09

Yeah forgot about that, was still a little low, at least compared to WPC forecast but not terrible.. GFS and Euro probably did the best even though they may of still been to high for northern Oswego...

Models definitely busted high on total precipitation.. WPC had the whole area at around 1"-1.25" of total precipitation which clearly didn't happen.. Downsloping did take place right where the models had it, lacona only picked up 2.9" of snow.. Here idk, didn't measure lol But it was enough to at least get me some morning exercise with the blower...

Fantasy storm of the day.. Not much before this timeframe, maybe some quick"refreshers"..

P&C looks solid for Kroc.. 8-14 through tonight.. 2"-6" for tomorrow.. 10"-20" total..

A developing surface wave across the upper Ohio Valley will push into West Virgina as we move into the late afternoon hours, this wave will continue to organize tonight as it moves along the frontal boundary into Pennsylvania. Strong ascent associated with this feature will bring heavier snowfall into the region with snowfall rates likely increasing to an inch per hour for a time, with some outside change for slightly heavier rates. We should start to see this heavier snow arrive into the region from the south by 5 pm or so then continue through at least the first half of tonight. Additional snowfall from late this afternoon through tonight likely in the 7-12 inch range with the higher end amounts focused south of a Buffalo- Rochester-Watertown line, although some north-northeast flow lake enhancement off Lake Ontario could bring some localized higher amounts as well along the south shore of Lake Ontario, including Rochester metro area. This snowfall along with additional snowfall Friday morning will make for the worst travel commute conditions during this event.

Here is high end starting at 7 pm for pretty much the rest of the event.. Clearly they don't go with kutchie haha Once again it's the"high end"..

Light snow here , down to 24°, winds out of the NNE(39°).. Maybe 1/2" if we are lucky lol 3k has only inch or two by 7pm before accumulations pick up overnight..I have also noticed the NAM products have been pushing the worst of downsloping to my north, near the Oswego/Jefferson border, guess only time will tell lol Also looks wetter overall..

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Yeah bunch of quick hitting N stream disturbances on both the GFS and Canadian..

https://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/ViewMap.aspx?state=usa

A long duration snow event is underway across the region, a wavy frontal boundary has dropped just to the south. This feature will temporarily stall over Pennsylvania this afternoon. In the process, frontogentic lift blo H70 will support widespread light snow over our forecast area. Snowfall rates through early afternoon should only be a few tenths of an inch an hour, with lesser amounts possible over parts of the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region. During the course of this afternoon, a stronger wave will track along the front from the Tennessee valley to about West Virginia. Deeper frontogenetic lift being enhanced aloft by a 180kt H25 jet... racing across Ontario and western Quebec, will prompt the light snow to pick up in intensity from the southwest. Snowfall rates over the western counties will increase to a half to one inch per hour at that time. Daytime snow accumulations will generally range from three to five inches with the bulk of the region more likely to experience the lower end of that range. Temperatures will gradually settle lower during the course of the day with mercury readings falling to the teens and lower 20s by this evening. The deepening cold air on the north side of the aforementioned front will also lead to a change in the character of the snow, with 8-10:1 ratios through early afternoon supporting wet snow and 12-15:1 ratios by nightfall allowing the snow to become a little fluffier. The `drier` snow will be more prone to the gusty north winds that will encourage some areas to experience some blowing snow during the afternoon and first part of tonight. Tonight...the well organized sfc wave will pass to our south across Pennsylvania. This will place the strongest lift from the ensuing deformation zone over parts of our forecast area...mainly south and east of a line from Buffalo and Rochester to Watertown. Snowfall rates of an inch an hour will be possible. For the western counties...the higher rates will be focused on the first half of the night. Additional snowfall tonight will range from four to seven inches. This 12 hour period...including the Friday morning rush hour...will likely be the time frame with the worst travel conditions. It will be colder tonight than the past couple...as the mercury will drop into the teens over the western counties and into the single digits across the North Country. On Friday...a sharpening longwave trough will dig across the Upper Great Lakes. This will help to shove the wavy frontal boundary over the Mid Atlantic region further away to the southeast and remove the persistent forcing that will have been over our region. While the widespread snow will taper off to scattered snow showers for the bulk of the region...some lake enhancement during the afternoon will keep fairly widespread snow showers in place from Batavia and Rochester to Wayne and Ontario counties. Snowfall amounts during the day Friday will only add up to another inch or two with the highest amounts just south of Lake Ontario. It will be cold...with temps only rebounding into the upper teens to near 20 in most areas

Yeah because they have nothing to buy lol

Starting to see some wet fatties fall as a little stronger rates cross through Western Oswego..

Yeah it ends on the GFS between 1 and 7 pm..Those other maps are previous 6 hours average precipitation rates.. Most likely mid afternoon..

We'll call it a "steady" snow, mercury down to 31.5°..

Because of the drive? Or snow? Lol We won't be seeing much if anything overnight, best to catch some sleep for tomorrow lol

HRRR flips buff around 11pm for whatever it's worth..

Tomorrow night has the potential for some decent rates wherever this heavier stuff goes..Here I'll be dealing with downsloping on and off so "only" expecting the lower end of the 8"-12" forecast..

You can also look at Kuchera from the bottom of "winter weather"..

Thursday the surface front will push towards the south and east with sufficient cold air in the lower level building to support all snow. As the cold air builds the initial wet snow will slowly become less dense with greater snow to liquid ratios. There likely will be breaks in the snow, especially towards the Finger Lakes region. Given the weak forcing snowfall amounts through the day will range from 3 to 6 inches. This combined with snow likely to increase later Thursday Night will give confidence to upgrade the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning for our entire region. Winds will remain light from the northwest to north through the day Thursday, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, greatly limited any blowing snow. It will be cooler Thursday with temperatures slowly falling through the 20s. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Impactful Winter Storm continues through this period... 12z model suite not exhibiting much variation to warrant any notable change to current thinking. Thermal profiles suggesting the entire area will have changed over to all snow by Thursday morning. Given that deep column saturation holds on within background omega field, expect that weak ascent will be able to support a relatively steady light to occasionally snow through the day Thursday. Snowfall rates probably not getting much over a half inch per hour. Snow to liquid ratios improving a bit through the day, perhaps ending the day near 14:1 over northern portions of the area, which should support manageable additional snowfall amounts of 2-5 inches during the daytime hours. Stronger wave lifts north into the region late in the day Thursday and into Thursday night. Forcing should increase during this time with snowfall rates on the order of 1 inch per hour certainly plausible for a time early Thursday night. Wave starts to depart late Thursday night with snowfall amounts starting to trail off from west to east. Additional amounts during Thursday night look a bit heavier and generally in the 3-6 inch range which falls within most of the guidance. Little evidence for any significant activity Friday as the wave departs. Additional snowfall amounts during this period will be tied to north-northeasterly lake enhancement. At this point, could see additional amounts of a few inches south of Lake Ontario Friday.

Pretty good consensus wrt temp, 43° and partly cloudy.. Forecast high was 40°..

Looks awfully familiar

Feels nice out..

Ukmet Fwiw..