wolfie09

Advisories issued this afternoon.. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

Yup, at least according to the COOP..They recorded 52.2" two years ago and 59.2" last year.. So far I think they have around 53" this year..The farther north you go the more we rely on lake effect..The "big" event has been missing for several years now, back in 2010-2011 Pulaski had three 24+ just in that season but it's been a good 4-5 years since this area has had over a couple feet in an event.. Locations like Fulton can"survive" off dink and dunk northerly flow events, we can not lol.. It's usually go big or go home and lately its been go home..

Yup, gets pretty toasty in the early morning hours ahead of the front..

Some"modest" lake effect expected tonight into tomorrow.. Tonight, the Lake Ontario lake effect will continue to shift north with the westerly wind shift. A passing trough, and convergent flow this evening should strengthen the lake effect along the south shore of Lake Ontario as winds start to shift out of the south over land, but continue out of the west to northwest over the lake. Winds over Lake Ontario will continue to shift more out of the west, and the lake snows will continue to push north into the late evening, becoming better organized directly over the lake. Winds will briefly shift to the west-southwest over Lake Ontario, causing the band to center over northern Oswego and southern Jefferson County through around daybreak on Tuesday. Snowfall amounts from NE Wayne County to Oswego County will generally be in the range of 2 to 5 inches through daybreak on Tuesday, with any additional confidence today with snow amounts, a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for a few of the counties along the southeast shore of Lake Ontario for tonight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures tonight will be in the single digits to low teens south of Lake Ontario, and in the low single digits to a few degrees below 0 for the North Country. Lake effect snow will linger east and southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday morning. Favoring high res guidance, particularly the RGEM, in handling this convergence band driven lake effect snow. Expecting an additional 1-3 inches which will focus near Oswego County before winds shift to the northwest Tuesday afternoon and push the band southward. This could bring an inch or so southeast of the lake Tuesday afternoon before winds diminish and cause the snow to end by Tuesday evening. Off Lake Erie, expect about an inch focused across the Boston Hills before snow ends there Tuesday afternoon. Outside of the lake snows, Tuesday will be a partly to mostly cloudy day with highs in the 20s

Syracuse drops from 58° to 25° in 3 hours on the GFS.. Not that it equates to snow lol

Icon back north..

Give it till tonight, see what happens..

That's definitely not westerly lol Has a N/NW look to it..

Looks like they did just that.. Monday night into Tuesday, and pinned between two areas of high pressure, a lake aggregate trough sets up stretching from Lake Superior southeast over Lake Ontario. This will allow a fairly strong convergent flow to set up down the long axis of Lake Ontario with the possibility for accumulating lake effect snows across far northern Cayuga, western Oswego and southwestern Jefferson counties.

Yeah it does look fairly similar with a slow/stalled frontal boundary and a wave or multiple waves riding it.. Same kind of backside HP as well as the Atlantic ridge.. This is the upcoming event..

Still a touch to far west on the ukmet..

Locally, guidance is starting to look a little better for Monday/Tuesday, wonder if the NWS will start to change their tune a little lol

You can see some weak surface reflections on the Canadian but the front just keeps moving...

Damn you boys are quick today lol

Canadian is MEH lol Pretty much a frontal passage..

Several good ones in there..

Rgem hits this area up pretty good late Monday into Tuesday but the NWS doesn't seem to enthused due to the lack of moisture.. A weak trough tracking across the region Monday night, along with a wind shift to the southwest to west over the longer fetch of the lakes will help reinvigorate the lake response northeast of Lake Erie with SW winds, and east of Lake Ontario with westerly winds. The better fetch over the lakes should result in better organized single bands off of both lakes, but there is still a notable lack in synoptic moisture, limiting snowfall to an inch or less for these areas. Weak warm air advection with the shifting winds will cause nighttime lows on Monday night to occur earlier in the overnight, with slow warming through the night, especially for WNY

It's that south wind Matt loves so dearly lol Down to 38° here.. Looks like most stations around the sizzle are reading similar..

Sad RIP LOS ANGELES -- The death of former major leaguer Jeremy Giambi was a suicide, the office of the Los Angeles County medical examiner-coroner said Friday. Giambi, 47, died Wednesday at his parents' home in suburban Claremont. The cause of death was a gunshot wound, according to the coroner's online case records.

Made it to 45° today..

Obviously the last several days has slowly eating away at the pack and while we don't have a ton on the ground, it's certainly not Zero lol

Aaron Rodgers wins his 4th MVP.. Other Awards https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33238292/2022-nfl-honors-won-league-biggest-awards

Getting a "steady" wet snow here at 33°.. Another coating it is lol

Still time for the"press"..