wolfie09

I had a high of 51° this morning(briefly) around 8:50 am but most of the day has featured mid 40s.. Rainfall is up to 0.26" on the day..I think our snow pack will live to fight another day as I still have a solid covering with"only" 6 hours or so till the frontal passage.. Rain has picked up of late though..

Yeah I know it's kutchie and shame on me lol But several models have this type of look with some wrap around/enhancement early tomorrow morning.. Something I'll be watching for.. Hopefully a few hours of fluff..lol

Arctic front enters WNY early Saturday morning and then will quickly work from west to east across the region. With BUFKIT profiles showing steep low level lapse rates and sufficient moisture extending through the DGZ(-10C to -20C)...should see a brief period of widespread snow showers along and then briefly behind the front. Winds will also pick up ahead and behind the front with gusts of 40 to 45 mph. With the frontal passage...CAA will then drop 850 hPa down to -18C/-20C over the lakes with increasing over lake instability. Lake snows will then take over...with the best shot at decent accumulations found east of Lake Ontario. Westerly flow of 260-270 will briefly make use of the longer fetch of the lake before flow veers to NW late in the afternoon. That said...flow isn`t all that well aligned with a bit of shear. This will likely limit accumulation but we still could see up 3 to 5 inches across Oswego Co. and the Tug Hill before the shift south. Off lake Erie...lesser amounts can be anticipated with 1 to 3 inches at best. Saturday night...lake snows will focus southeast of the lakes but will weaken and then diminish as we head into Sunday. Could see some accumulations but will be on the light side for counties along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Otherwise...outside of the residual lake snow it will be a largely dry night as sfc high over the Ohio Valley influences the Lower Lakes. Should be the coldest night of this period...lows in the single digits to below zero in spots. Winds fall off quickly in the evening and then become light...so it appears there will not be any wind chill issues.

We could see a solid squall line develope along the front Saturday morning.. Models are in surprisingly good agreement lol Small window (4-6hours) of westerly flow behind the front, veering to NW...

Euro for late next week.. Obviously things will change between now and then...

Yeah, same here.. Still holding on to something lol Tonight is the real test with temps climbing into the mid 50s and heavy rain.. I have only recorded 0.06" of liquid so far today with temps in the mid-upper 40s, DPs also in the mid 40s...

Yeah the follow up event on the GFS is a Miller B type system..

GFS probably the most favorable on the backside of this system.. Probably a glitch just to my east lol

Saturday clipper.. Saturday, models continue to be in good agreement with a strong shortwave and associated low passing across our region. While the low will be filling, there will be a strong wind field with this low, such that with cold air advection behind the front the increased mixing heights will allow for gusts to at least 40 mph across much of the region through the day. This cold front, passing across the region midday, will also produce a burst of snow though accumulations will be minor with just an inch or two. Though amounts will be minor, the quick burst of snow with lowering visibilities could impact travel early Saturday. Temperatures peaking ahead of the front will likely fall through the afternoon hours. There will be a brief window for lake effect snow Saturday Night as the temperatures at 850 hPa plummet to the low negative teens Celsius. Moisture and convergence looks to be greatest downwind of Lake Ontario, though there will still be a fair amount of wind shear through the boundary layer. Areas across the southern Tug Hill and then southeast of Lake Ontario could receive several inches to possibly near advisory level snows Saturday Night. Surface high pressure will ridge across the Lakes later Saturday Night, ending the lake snows now to the south of the Lakes as winds become northerly. Still snowing after this frame..

Next synoptic system to watch is probably D7/8 which is the same system the euro gave us some wintry precipitation..

All fantasy at this point but last night's euro looked solid with a Snow/mix synoptic event and some LES to boot..I'm feeling 1 good LES event before the month ends lol

Would be nice lol Couple runs in a row with a big LES event in the LR behind one of these waves.. Obviously to far out right now..

My attention has turned to the clipper/enhancement..lol Nam looks solid for a few/several inches of snow..

This looks fun next week lol

Latest GFS

Saturday...cold front quickly crosses the area with a brief uptick in snow showers activity as CAA ramps up across the region. There will also be some accumulating lake snows to contend with as over lake instability increases with 850 hPa temps falling to -17C/-19C. BUFKIT profiles show equilibriums levels climbing to near 12k feet and sufficient moisture extending through the DGZ. That said...might see some decent accumulations east of Lake Ontario. Will need to keep an eye on this potential but it`s only a brief window too see accumulating snows.

Low probs 4"+ for WNY..

Up 30° since midnight, wind starting to whip as well..

Majority of these look solid for WNY but we don't know how much sleet is included as snow..

Agreed..GFS is actually worse for kbuf and Kroc according to the 10-1 maps...

Globals look to have a little"wrap around" for CNY that equates to 1"-3".. Canadians as usual more aggressive with the clipper and lake enhancement..

Clipper

Euro

Watch for NNY.. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 or more inches and ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Northern St. Lawrence, Northern Franklin and Southwestern St. Lawrence Counties. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute.

Looks like a "chaotic" pattern coming up with lots of inland solutions that cause both rain and snow...