wolfie09

Day 3 wpc

Para doesn't merge the two..

You beat me to it, bastard lol

Kbuf not overly impressed..Still 3"-4" here which would be welcomed lol

Wicked band on the high res Canadian, 6"-12" in just a few hours to my south..May have to make a stop in Barnes corners lol

Rgem for the first event..

SR guidance now getting into range for our first lake effect event.

Kbuf did shift a little south with the"expected snowfall"

Tug can make out with various wind directions.. Northwest winds were strong through most of the event, producing significant blowing and drifting snow and very difficult travel. Very persistent upslope flow into the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau played a critical role in producing the highest totals from this event, with a few locations seeing 3 to 4+ feet of snow over a 3 day period.

Well at first the flow looks more"westerly" before veering NW..But due to the proximity of the LP the tug sees some wrap around..These bands obviously tend to be stronger over the higher elevations, not to mention the change over will be much quicker..A lot depends on when the Low jumps the coast.. We'll have to wait and see what SR guidance shows..

First lake effect map of the season..

Cold front blasts across region late Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. Cold air advection will quickly switch rain to snow by Sunday evening first over the hills of western NY into the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, but eventually all areas (even lower elevations) will see snow by late evening into the early overnight. Widespread precip will end in the evening, but the deep cold trough with deeper moisture and sharply increasing over-water instability leading to lake equilibrium levels/inversion heights rising toward 15kft will result in *at least* moderate intensity lake effect snowfall for areas favored by northwest winds Sunday evening through late Sunday night. Will be a multiband regime, but there continues to be hints of upstream connections off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay which will boost intensity than what would typically occur in multiband setup. Several inches of snow is looking more likely Sunday night over western Southern Tier and also vcnty of the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario. Another plus is, at least right now, forecast soundings show uniform winds for the depth of the lake convective layer, thus minimal shear to disrupt the lake effect. Strong winds in that layer could displace the snow showers farther inland as well and may even lead to a bit of blowing snow as temps fall into the 20s overnight. Will continue to mention this potential snow in the HWO. Adding to the wintry feel will be wind chill values to start the day Monday in the teens and lower 20s. Brrr. Snow showers will be around on Monday, but as upper level trough moves east of the region, limited deeper moisture and some subsidence/drying will likely diminish intensity compared to Sunday night. Does appear lake effect will flare up again late Monday into Monday night, this time mostly over Tug Hill closer to departing trough and colder air.

Look above my friend..Rgem jumps to the coast switching the wind field.. Almost a little wrap around regime, doesn't last long though..

Rgem starting to get into range for Sunday evening.. What do you know, missing most just to my south Good thing we still have 3 days left..

Yes please lol Really nice track for westerly/WSW enhancement..

Gfs and Canadian both moved a little north with the Monday night event.. We'll see how that trends over the next few days..

I like what I'm seeing for Sunday night into Monday morning, just behind the CF on a WSW flow, couple/few inches possible..As it stands now lol

The Republicans may need just as much time lol At least going by the"return rate" which is much greater for the democratic party.. Obviously some people will have a change of heart and vote at the polls..

Who ever gets under this band should have a fun night lol

Maybe the icon is on some good stuff or maybe the system will go further NW than progged lol At the very least i think we see some flakes..

We should all see some flakes by next week.. European favors the syracuse area on south for the Monday/Tues event..

Results may not be known until several days after the election..As CNN reported some counties in PA won't start counting mail in ballots until the polls close or even the next morning.. WASHINGTON — In a pair of decisions welcomed by Democrats, the Supreme Court on Wednesday let election officials in two key battleground states, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, accept absentee ballots for several days after Election Day. In the Pennsylvania case, the court refused a plea from Republicans in the state that it decide before Election Day whether election officials can continue receiving absentee ballots for three days after Nov. 3. In the North Carolina case, the court let stand lower court rulings that allowed the state’s board of elections to extend the deadline to nine days after Election Day, up from the three days called for by the state legislature. The court’s brief orders in the two cases were unsigned. The Pennsylvania order appeared to be unanimous, while the North Carolina one was issued over three noted dissents.

Wpc slight probabilities look similar to the european..

Fwiw european is a little north verbatim..Close call..

Latest GFS (Monday-tues)