wolfie09

Rgem FWIW

Plumes for syracuse

Big shift NW on the SREF mean..

I'll wait for the SR models to get into range before worrying about wrap around or any enhancement along the south shore.. Just wanna see that low tucked.. Precipitation is the hardest thing for the models to figure out...

Thanks That's what I was hoping for lol Wrap around is the only chance I got..

18z Canadian

Gfs still giving out the goods after that system moves out, still going verbatim, I'll be following day by day as usual until it shits the bed lol

European has that same wave giving snow to nj lol Canadian and icon develop it OTS..

Gfs litterly dances around me haha.. Primary to far south, coastal to far south, wrap around to far north, enhancement to far south lol

Another crappy run here lol Looks decent south of here with some enhancement..

Actually starts to back it up..

Precip farther west but weak and disorganized..

For the primary..

New RGEM will be running soon but the track wasn't terribly different than the nam just way different precip field lol It is a little west and rgem can definitely be a littlelol

Idk could be right but it keeps jumping back and forth lol Rgem kinda jumps towards a little convection as well and it brings it right into eastern SNE (CC) lol

Bingo I feel the NAM is always in catch-up mode, like a day behind lol

A vertically stacked low will be near Ohio on Sunday night, with a diffluent flow aloft and mid level warm air advection from this system producing snow which should at least reach the Western Southern Tier. A surface low developing off the mid-Atlantic coast will take over late Sunday night and Monday. A consensus track similar to the SREF places our region along the northern fringe of the precipitation from this system. But there is a wide spread in model guidance, with challenges in the track of the system, and how quickly the coastal low takes over. 12Z model consensus is slightly north compared to previous runs, but even so the RGEM nearly keeps the area dry through Monday. The most likely scenario drops 2-4 inches of snow across the Western Southern Tier, with amounts tapering down to less than an inch from Buffalo to Rochester northward. A more northerly track could support Winter Weather Advisory headlines for the Western Southern Tier. At least there will not be any precipitation type issues, with thermal profiles plenty cold and moist enough to support all snow. High pressure across Quebec will ridge into the North Country Sunday evening, which will provide good radiational cooling conditions. Went much colder than guidance for Sunday night, with some below zero readings likely. It will be chilly on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 20s in a brisk northeasterly flow. The storm will rapidly intensify off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday night before moving northward to near Cape Cod on Tuesday. There will be a break in the action Monday night as the low wraps up along the coast. However eventually moisture will wrap around the upper low providing an increasingly moist flow across eastern portions of the forecast area. The 12Z ECMWF/RGEM are now notably more aggressive bringing snow back into the area east of Rochester Tuesday and Tuesday night. This is likely to produce some accumulating snows east and southeast of Lake Ontario, with amounts depending on the track of the upper low. Elsewhere, just expect a persistent northwesterly breeze with generally cold weather and scattered snow showers.

This didn't age well

Just like the rest of guidance the navy has been trending west lol

No more rain/cutter on the European..

1/2" liquid on the nose here, 1"line 25 miles SW, lets make it happen lol But in all seriousness nice run and hope the trend continues..

0z vs 12z so far..

Euro hammering C/N Nj and NYC with about 1'-2'..Still not up to the important frames for us..