wolfie09

I have already been through my 5 stages of grief..

Every model gives me like1"-3"/2"-4" lol Rgem 14"-16"

Going higher than I thought TBH..

Yeah it's really just a guess lol Nam has just over 3/4" liquid European with just under.. Wpc 1/2"-3/4".. Went a little above 10-1..

Every model shows a shaft zone here except the Canadians which is one of the reasons I am discounting them.. Also the rgem has been overboard a lot this year wrt lake induced Precipitation..

For the"big" cities of upstate I'm going Kalb 6.5" Kbgm 12" Kbuf 1.2" Ksyr 8.5" Kroc 5.2" Used a blend of the NAM/Euro/Wpc..Climo ratios not Kuchera .. Discounted Canadian guidance lol

Thursday night into Friday, an area of low pressure will track northeast across the Central Great Lakes, occluding in the process. Precipitation will overspread the region as the area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. First the warm front associated with the system will track northeast across the area through Friday morning, followed by the cold front for the afternoon. Proximity to the triple point for the area of low pressure will be important for temperatures and precip types for this event. Guidance is split on triple point location and how quickly the cold front moves through. Some guidance brings stronger warm air advection north ahead of the cold front Friday morning allowing sfc temps. to warm a bit more before the cold front passes. Other guidance is quicker with the cold frontal passage, which would mean cooler temperatures for Friday. Chance POPs will continue through Saturday with cooling temperatures aloft, and the potential for lake effect. Starting at the end of the long term period, temperatures look to cool below normal again as another arctic airmass drops south out of Canada. Long range guidance suggesting 850H temps approaching -25C in the first half of the week of Feb. 7th. This would be the coldest airmass of the winter thus far if it comes to fruition.

Gfs still with the wave idea, some rain with the Cutter/Front..

GGEM is always a carbon copy of the regional..

Given the continued model spread for this period, just made incremental changes to POPS and snow amounts, adjusting POPS higher and a little farther westward late Monday night through Wednesday. Also adjusted snow amounts a little higher and a little farther west, essentially a compromise solution between the ECMWF/GEM idea and the GFS, and close to WPC guidance and multi-model ensembles. Continued mention in the HWO for accumulating snow for this time period for the Genesee Valley eastward. Watch/Warning criteria snowfall is a possibility if the ECMWF/GEM verify, but confidence is not high enough in this scenario yet for a watch given the uncertainty.

Haven't seen any guidance back it that far west..

Not so sure about the rgem..

Well it's actually over most of Oswego county and rest of the state lol

Nice donut hole on the 3k..

Maybe a little out of the NE here or there but definitely not an easterly Flow..

Bro the winds are more out of the north/NNW and eventually NW lol The enhancement just hugs the shore and misses that area verbatim. If anyone is going to downslope it's me lol

I'll remove all the teeth in my mouth and become one if the gfs verified

It's one of the sickest runs I have seen lol Wrt LES..

So medium range gfs has more rain with the cutter/CF before giving us some light-moderate snow from a secondary wave..LR still showing LES potential, only 8-9 days away

It looks that way but winds are out of the NW not NE..It's the models trying to predict where enhancement will occur..Winds start out northerly before veering north westerly.. This frame may be more NNW lol

If it is downsloping it would most likely be from the adirondacks..The wind does seem quite"northerly"

I like the look of the medium-LR icon lol Also has a little lake effect post CF..