wolfie09

We finished here with 0.55" of liquid..High temp for yesterday was 49.8°, daytime high 44°..We have already surpassed that today, currently 52° , DPs in the mid 30s and low humidity levels make it feel quite comfortable out..

Well it's been raining for about 8 hours now and finally hit 1/2" lol Obviously better than nothing, 0.85" the last few days, still raining light..

To start out the day Sunday, the center of the now closed upper low will linger overhead. It finally begins to lift eastward across New England as core of upper jet lifts ahead of the trough in the afternoon, with heights starting to slowly rise over much of the area. Deterministic and ensemble guidance is trending towards an even slower departure of the pesky upper low as it takes on a more negative tilt and becomes more of an open wave. The slower progression of the low will allow some extra wrap-around moisture to advect into the area, and with additional PVA from the low, a slightly more pessimistic precipitation forecast is in store for eastern portions of the area Sunday. Though it won`t be a washout, given these latest trends, have increased PoPs some mainly west of Rochester from the Finger Lakes region up through the North Country for Sunday afternoon and the first half of Sunday night. In regards to temperatures, Sunday will see a continuation of the warming trend from Saturday. However, stubborn cloud cover and a northeast wind flowing across Lake Ontario will still result in only highs in the low to mid 60s, with mid/upper 50s for further inland locations. Lows will bottom out in the 40s Sunday night... A little extra cloud cover east of Lake Ontario should prevent temps from dropping further into the upper 30s overnight. Thankfully, Monday is still shaping up to be the best day of the 3 day holiday weekend. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will keep conditions dry, with partly to mostly sunny skies and a weaker gradient wind out of the W/SW expected. The warming trend will continue for Memorial Day with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s, which are still a few degrees below normal but a welcomed improvement from the previous few days. Weak lake breezes will keep immediate lakeshores cooler. Monday night should remain dry, but an approaching shortwave will slightly increase rain chances in the second half of the night. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to upper 40s, slightly cooler up on the Tug Hill.

We had a couple week dry spell but thanks to the beginning (and now the end)of the month , we aren't far from where we should be.. Average is 3.93" according to NOAA, I have a little over 3.5" on the month as of now..

It won't be as bad tomorrow as the coldest air will be to the east..

Slow and steady here.. Raining at about 0.12" per hour lol I have 1/4" on the day.. Still a good amount of moisture to get through..Temp steady in the low-mid 40s..

Slow descent wrt temps as steadier precipitation moves in, winds out of the NE all morning, just under tenth inch of liquid so far..

Potential for another coastal storm to form on Sunday..

Gfs has a true warm-up in about 7-10 days before we cool back down at the end of the run verbatim.. These +anomalies have been much worse in the interior/GLs then to our east towards the coast.

Starting to get a little drizzle, some heavier returns on the doorstep..

We had a high of 49.8° at midnight, currently 46°, not sure we rise much throughout the day..No Liquid here just overcast..

Maxed out at 62° degrees today, DPs in the mid 40s and humidity levels around 50%, obviously a fantastic day lol Still some discrepancy on how far north the rain will get tomorrow, I guess I won't know till I look out my window lol

Bump north on the NAM as well. Nice soaking for all..

Nice bump north on the european for Friday system..

SOURCE...Law enforcement has reported numerous trees and wires down in Onondaga county.

PWS showing about 1" per hour rates, 0.20" liquid so far..13° drop in temp the last 25 minutes..

Not much in the way of "severe" weather, mainly heavy rain and a little wind.. Strongest developing to the East/SE.. I'm not a huge fan of lightning anyway lol

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Wayne County in western New York... Cayuga County in central New York... Southwestern Oswego County in central New York... * Until 100 PM EDT.. * At 1159 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Chimney Bluffs State Park, or 14 miles southwest of Fair Haven Beach State Park, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Lyons, Central Square, Chimney Bluffs State Park, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile Point, Battle Island State Park and Scriba

More potential warmth coming the first week of June..50%-60% probabilities currently..

NAM is pretty much the opposite of what the NWS says with the coldest air over the north country.. Guess it depends how far north the rain/clouds get..

The cold air that will be in place over the area on Thursday looks to play a fairly large role in the evolution of the next system to affect our area on Friday. Some phasing of the northern and southern stream looks to occur as the next nearly closed 500 hPa low advances into the Great Lakes on Friday. With the aforementioned jet phasing starting to occur, the right entrance region of an upper jet streak looks to track across northern Ohio and northern Pennsylvania. This sets up the corridor of low level convergence and associated 850 hPa frontal zone to our south. As a result, ascent across our area will generally be strongest from the southern shore of Lake Ontario and southward during the daytime on Friday. Further, ascent looks to be primarily stratiform in nature, so all signs are pointing to a prolonged light to moderate rainfall for all points south of the south shore of Lake Ontario that is likely to last at least through the daytime Friday...if not into Friday night. While northerly flow will hold temperatures back on Thursday, abundant clouds and steady rainfall seem poised to really chop back at temperature expectations on Friday. While MOS guidance favors mid 50s for much of the area on Friday, actually model 2 meter temperatures are far more pessimistic. While it would only take a few minutes of sun to bust the forecast in an upward direction, it seems highly unlikely we will see much/any sun on Friday other than in the North Country. As a result, for most of western New York, the western Southern Tier, and northern Finger Lakes, temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50 are about all we are likely to muster. Farther north, more dry air will play in the favor of far lower chances of rainfall in the Watertown area, and likewise, with a bit better chance of sunshine, temperatures will likewise be able to increase a tad...though still remain well below normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Much drier air moves into the area into the weekend. Even as this occurs, and the attendant sunshine returns, temperatures aloft will not be poised to increase all that rapidly. However, sunshine will result in better mixing profiles, so the +2 to +6C off the deck through the weekend should allow temperatures to gradually return to the 60s. Even still, this is several degrees below normal. It won`t be until the start of the new week that we will even begin to approach normal values for high temperatures as generally dry conditions look set to resume/persist across the Great Lakes.

I just hope the rain makes it this far north lol

Solid soaking on the NAM 12z..

Yup, started the month off strong but haven't seen much in the last 2 weeks..I picked up a quick 0.06" yesterday and a little less than 3" on the month..

Saturday and Sunday