wolfie09

Pouring out right now, I had to zoom to 800% just to see it lol

Rain starting to wind down, 1.15" on the day, 5.57" on the month..

Pouring out, rate nearing 2" per hr.. Lightning is sick..Not really moving all to fast..

Tornado warning NW of Binghamton..

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Jefferson County in central New York... Southwestern Lewis County in central New York... Cayuga County in central New York... Oswego County in central New York... * Until 1030 PM EDT.. * At 924 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 25 miles west of Cedar Point State Park to 9 miles southwest of Southwick Beach State Park to near Skaneateles, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Watertown, Oswego, Fulton, Fort Drum, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Stony Point, Carthage, Pulaski, West Carthage and Clayton. This includes the following highways... Interstate 90 near exit 40. Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 52.

Yeah not sure I want it here lol It's nice from a distance..

Non stop lightning off in the distance..

Going to be interesting to see how the rest of this evening unfolds..

Some more activity has formed in OH and western end of Erie..

Not much going action on the kbgm radar.. Time to watch the stuff in W/C PA..

Pretty much run of the mill T-storms here, little bit of thunder and lightning, rain fall rates decent but not overly impressive..We picked up another 0.21" since this morning, 0.47" on the day...

Main concern for this evening will be developing severe weather. There are several areas of focus... from west to east: 1) A line from Eastern Lake Erie SSE to NW PA will affect much of WNY this eve. Timing for this is now through 6PM for the Southern Tier along the PA border, and roughly 6-8PM for Metro BUF and surrounding areas (Southtowns first, Northtowns last). The line has weakened a little over the past hour, but should restrengthen, particularly on its south side, as it moves NE into the Southern Tier and Upper Genesee Valley. 2) Much of the Genesee Valley will see the above noted line move through a little later, roughly 7-9PM. There`s a possibility that additional convection may form ahead of line, which reduces confidence in timing a little. 3) The biggest concern is E/SE of Lake Ontario, where the best shear, both speed and directional, buoyancy, and boundaries are found. Expect a variety of discrete cells through early this evening, followed possibly by a line later this evening. Within the warm sector, we have shear of 30 kts west to 45kts east and MLCAPE between 1500-2000J/kg. Given continual high wbzero heights 13+kft per 18z BUF sounding and very high PWATS toward 2 inches, main severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for our entire area, except St. Lawrence River, through 11 PM.

Warning issued for this cell..

Well according to my weather station yes lol But always some margin of error..The 2 nearest WU stations are 76° and 78°, kfzy 75°, ksyr 76°..So it's in the ball park lol

Current OBS

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 375, with damaging winds the main threat. DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar depicts a few isolated storms over portions of southern New York and vicinity. Updrafts have largely been transient thus far, likely due to modest mid-level lapse rates amid abundant shear. However, recent scans/imagery suggest the intensity of these storms may be increasing somewhat as low-level lapse rates over the region remain supportive for convective development amid a weak cap. Farther west, a cluster of severe storms has emerged across portions of western Pennsylvania, with several damaging wind reports. This band of convection appears to be associated with a mid-level short-wave evident at 700 mb. Short-term convection-allowing models suggest these storms should continue moving northeast into western portions of the watch area across northwest Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. Additional storm development is possible along the southern flank of the line as the mid-level wave and associated ascent progresses through the region for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds remain the primary hazard, but severe hail and a tornado or two are possible, particularly with any discrete/supercell modes that may emerge.

Some current radars..

Starting to sizzle sizzle here, 86/76, RF of 95°..

This would cause some issues lol Not that you can trust the Hrrr though..It will be different next run..

* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop across Pennsylvania and New York into the afternoon and early evening. The stronger storms will become capable of producing locally strong to damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Syracuse NY to 25 miles west of Hagerstown MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 135 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-037-043-045-049-051-053- 055-063-065-067-069-073-075-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123- 140300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0375.210713T1735Z-210714T0300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND ERIE GENESEE HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING YATES

Some tiny pop ups here, raining and mostly sunny lol

Otherwise, appears primary period of convection will form by mid afternoon ahead of shortwave/stronger moisture transport lifting in from Ohio. This forcing will combine with lake breezes and start to tap into MLCAPE up to 2000 j/kg and effective shear up to 30 kts if not more southeast/east of Lake Ontario to support developing clusters of thunderstorms. Southeast Lake Ontario region and WNY will see storms first, but all areas will eventually see likely thunderstorms 21z-02z. Given continual high wbzero heights 13kft and very high PWATS toward 2 inches, main severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. Torrential downpours expected too, but storms will be moving more so than last couple days. Thus, main flooding potential will be if storms train resulting in multiple episodes of heavy rain at one spot. Considered flash flood watch east of Lake Ontario where majority of high res guidance indicates heaviest rain occurs closer to warm front into this evening, but since those ares didn`t see widespread heavy rain last night (few spots saw 0.60-1.00) plan is to handle flash flooding hazard with warnings if needed. Majority of thunderstorm activity wanes mid evening onward, first over WNY then by late evening east of Lake Ontario. SPC continues to highlight majority of forecast area in a slight risk/scattered severe convection and WPC continues to highlight much of area in slight risk of excessive rainfall.

My phone instantly fogged up when I came out this morning lol 83° here with a DP of 74° and RF of 91°..