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Everything posted by wolfie09
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Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 318 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 NYZ014-170330- /O.EXA.KBUF.FF.A.0002.210717T0300Z-210718T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Ontario- Including the cities of Canandaigua 318 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of western New York, including the following county, Ontario. * From 11 PM EDT this evening through late Saturday night. * An area of low pressure will track northeast across Ohio tonight along a stationary front that stretches all the way east through western and central New York. This area of low pressure will then track east across western NY and the Finger Lakes region on Saturday. Moderate to heavy rain will enter far western NY tonight and then track eastward across the region through Saturday evening. Thunderstorms are possible and due to recent substantial rainfall, localized flooding is a concern. One hour flash flood guidance is 1 to 2 inches across a majority of the region. This could easily be reached, especially if training thunderstorms or organized areas of slow moving heavy rain occur near Metro areas and locations prone to flooding. Rises on rivers and creeks are also expected. However, the rivers and creeks of most concern at this time are the Buffalo Creeks, where minor to even some moderate flooding may occur due to an additional 2 to 2.5 inches of rainfall that is expected by Saturday afternoon. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of central and western New York, including the following counties, in central New York, Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie, Wayne and Wyoming. * From 11 PM EDT this evening through late Saturday night. * An area of low pressure will track northeast across Ohio tonight along a stationary front that stretches all the way east through western and central New York. This area of low pressure will then track east across western NY and the Finger Lakes region on Saturday. Moderate to heavy rain will enter far western NY tonight and then track eastward across the region through Saturday evening. Thunderstorms are possible and due to recent substantial rainfall, localized flooding is a concern. One hour flash flood guidance is 1 to 2 inches across a majority of the region. This could easily be reached, especially if training thunderstorms or organized areas of slow moving heavy rain occur near Metro areas and locations prone to flooding. Rises on rivers and creeks are also expected. However, the rivers and creeks of most concern at this time are the Buffalo Creeks, where minor to even some moderate flooding may occur due to an additional 2 to 2.5 inches of rainfall that is expected by Saturday afternoon -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
WPC and latest euro, matches up well for WNY not so much the north country.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It's not even that hot in downtown.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Rochester measuring all over again.. Fake sizzle sizzle? Lol -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yesterday we hit 88° for the 3rd time in the month of July which is the Max so far.. Today is a much more comfortable mid 70s with DPs dropping in the mid 60s..Lots of clouds but some peaks of sun from time to time.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
NWS not expecting heavier precipitation rates till the overnight hours, still a chance the game gets played.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Little perplexed that the NWS has 50% pops for tomorrow lol I mean every model shows rain, some more than others..They mention 1/2"-1" east of Ontario in their AFD while WPC has around 1.5" locally... -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Hoping this line stays intact lol -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
What month are we in again? Lol -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Not for long lol European is pretty wet but it did come south so nothing set in stone.. For majority Kbuf CWA 2"-4" verbatim with isolated higher amounts near Max/Matt and SE of Kbuf.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Speaking of the Canadian and ukmet, both wet..Some rain records would definitely fall if not already lol Only gets worse after this with a series of waves dropping into the trough, so precipitation comes from the north instead of S/SW.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
On the GFS showers start to approach Friday evening, Ggem holds it off till Saturday morning so timing is still a bit off lol -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Gfs12z has a wet Sat morning for WNY, wet afternoon for CNY fwiw.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It's going to be close, heaviest precipitation may not arrived till overnight.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
As the upper trough from the weekend starts to kick eastward, the long wave pattern over North America looks to begin to evolve going into the new week. As the upper ridge over the western CONUS again builds to extraordinary heights, downstream troughing becomes a foregone conclusion. In fact, there is good agreement on the development of a Hudson Bay low by mid-week, which is really reminiscent of a wintertime pattern more than a summertime pattern. Regardless, this will introduce drier continental air to the mix over the area, allowing for far lower levels of humidity. However, with resident troughing, cold air aloft will be present, so peak heating showers inland from the lakes cannot be ruled out. The long wave pattern evolution will mean that temperatures in the extended will start a bit above normal, however as the upper low develops over Hudson Bay and troughing becomes established in the east, temperatures should bottom out below normal by midweek -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Decent model consensus exists around the progression of a strongly positively-tilted short wave trough moving toward the area on Friday night that progressively closes off and slows its forward progression through the short term period. Further, the consensus favors this H5 low closing off somewhere near or just east of Lake Huron, placing our area squarely in a zone of increasing DPVA through the period. In conjunction with this, the right entrance region of the upper jet streak associated with the upper wave will generally become resident over the area, accentuating large scale forcing for ascent during the time. A resident frontal boundary will already be in place to focus low level convergence, however model solutions vary a bit on the northward placement of this boundary with the ECMWF being the northerly outlying solution. Regardless, with a slow-evolving upper level pattern, several convective waves look set to propagate down the frontal boundary, resulting in very high PoPs right through the short term period. There is some evidence in the guidance that the upper wave will start to progress eastward by Saturday night, which would start to edge drier air in from the north, allowing for lower end PoPs by the second half of the weekend over WNY. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Found this on social media.. "Shane Muckeys' photo of Nine Mile Point during last nights thunderstorm".. https://m.facebook.com/groups/1770384973265282/permalink/2740926392877797/?sfnsn=mo -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
We may make it through July without much"sizzle sizzle"(90s)..So far Zero on the month with 10 of the 14 days maxing out in the 70s.. Forecast after tomorrow (86°) is mainly upper 70s to around 80° aka average... Obviously we can thank the consistent showers and clouds for that lol CPC still showing neutral"ish" probabilities in the LR.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Nice man!! I was hoping to go to the previous Yankees series in buffalo but couldn't go, now it might be to late as the jays may be back in Toronto by the end of the month..They play one more time, last series of the year.. Buffalo came out in support of the Yankees, probably about 80% even though they were the road team lol -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
We should be good for a couple days lol Thursday night through Saturday may be a different story, depends what guidance is correct.. Euro leads the pack with rain amounts the last couple runs.. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms late Thursday and Thursday night. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I was wondering the same Matt, always seems the airport is the"hot spot", not always but more times than not.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yeah turned into a nice afternoon, mid-upper 70s, plenty of sun, DPs dropping in the 60s, west wind with a little breeze.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Another potential"wavy" CF..