wolfie09

Hrrr says mixing gets into the city by 3-4 pm .

Looks like 12"-18" so far in some parts of jersey/PA.. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=PHI

Next 10 days on the Canadian.. Obviously some is from tomorrow but most east-NE of the lakes is LES and what ever SW round the trough.. Looks like fluctuating winds, subject to change a thousand times..

Some long fetch bands off Erie lol At least at first verbatim..

Gfs next 7 days.. Looks like some major downsloping with this event so obviously I've moved on lol

Thursday night into Friday, an area of low pressure will track northeast across the Central Great Lakes, occluding in the process. Precipitation will overspread the region as the area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. First the warm front associated with the system will track northeast across the area through Friday morning, followed by the cold front for the late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures on Friday will be a bit warmer in the lower elevations, resulting in rain or a mix of rain and snow. The higher elevations should stay mostly snow for the day on Friday. As the cold front passing over the area, and cold air advection brings temps down, any remaining rain will change over to snow. Behind the passing cold front, 850H temps in the -10C to -15C range will help support the potential for a lake response off of both lakes. Potential lake enhanced and then lake effect would continue through most of Saturday. A wave of low pressure and trailing cold front will track across the area on Sunday, bringing a return to cold temperatures once again. Lake effect behind this passing system also looks possible with 850H temps dropping to -15C Sunday night, and cooling even more so from there. Temperatures on Friday will be above normal with highs in the mid to upper 30s, and a low 40s across the lower elevations. Temperatures for Friday will be heavily dependent on timing of the cold frontal passage.Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the low 20s to near 30.

Advisory issued for a couple inches to the north and 4"-6" south.. Yawn lol At least with LES I know I'll get that in about an hour..

I thought the NWS went off the deep end

Here is the 3k at 9 am.. Radar is the best tool we got not the models..

Here is the hi rez at 9am..

Why not? Lol If they can't verify one hour out, toss.. Canadian guidance not doing well either..

Navy is doing a better job lol

Nam seems to be overestimating the dry air unless this stuff isn't reaching the ground..

This would probably be a first for me lol It's obviously not just valley locations..Dps are the same everywhere..700 mb moisture looks good.. Little drier at 850mb ..I guess we'll see soon enough..

Gfs moved that wave east giving the coast another snow event lol Little LES east/ene of the lake..It will change but all comes down to timing as usual..

This is like a case study for me lol Last event I posted the NAM 6 hrs before the event and it had a hole right over northern Oswego lol Some parts picked up nearly double digits like SE lacona.. Rgem on the other hand likes to give it up like my ex..

Not much difference

Through 9z Wed the rgem has the heaviest snow where all the NAM based products have no snow lol

Sref mean

Canadians aren't going to give.. Just have to wait and see lol

Still watching the CF/Cutter as it's getting closer, nice synoptic/LES combo verbatim, will change a million times from now till then but a time period to watch nonetheless lol

For all the weenies in the house..