Rtd208

Larry Cosgrove released his 2018/19 Winter Outlook. November: Temp much above normal/Confidence Level 5 out of 10 December: Temp much above normal/Confidence level 3 out of 10 January: Temp near normal/Confidence level 3 out of 10 February: Temp much below normal/Confidence level 5 out of 10 March: Temp much below normal/Confidence level 4 out of 10 Snow/Ice Potential: Critical (which is good for snow lovers)

Yep I was just going to post that. He is on the warmer train until late December.

Interesting, Larry Cosgrove still thinks milder air returns to most of the US including the Eastern Seaboard between November 7th and Christmas. It will be interesting to see if he will be right..

This is a great blog post by John (Earthlight) https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/10/13/weekender-social-media-stormy-pattern-ahead/

Interesting discussion from Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter last night in the longer term outlook. Not set in stone obviously but basically thinking milder temps from November 7 thru December 26 then a fairly cold and stormy January thru March. Winter could be close to 2009-10.

Bump

I actually think this October will feature some high wind events in the mid-atlantic and northeast. As far as one specific storm I think it will be a major nor'easter that will get things started for the fall and winter months.

Ok thank you Mr. Know it all.

October 11th

Every year around this time I like to get things started for the upcoming fall and winter with the "Predict the Date" of the first bonafide nor'easter of the season be it rain and or snow. Hopefully this season will be an active one. Starts October 1st 2018 thru March 31st 2019

Frying Pan Ocean Cam Live https://youtu.be/deG4NxkouGM

That's what she said.

If anyone is interested Matt Lanza put together a list comprised of meteorologists, storm chasers etc. to be able to track Florence on Twitter. https://twitter.com/mattlanza/lists/florence

DT (Wxrisk) has posted an early winter preview video for the upcoming 2018-19 winter season. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6fT7Ge7mWE&feature=youtu.be

Interesting snippet from Larry Cosgroves Weather America weekly newsletter last night. "October looks extremely interesting for weather in North America" Looks like he will be discussing that further in some upcoming newsletters. Maybe a stormy October is on the way??

I should point out he also mentioned that over time that favored area could possibly shift a little bit further north. But any which way you slice it there is the potential for MCS/Derecho activity for our area.

Larry Cosgrove has an interesting weekly newsletter yesterday. In his medium range outlook (days 4-10) he stated that areas from ND/MI/IL and through PA/NJ/DE/MD could be in line for potential MCS/Derecho development. He also mentioned this in his extended range (days 11-15) outlook as well. He mentioned we could be in the "Ring of Fire" which would obviously increase the potential for MCS/Derecho's moving through our region.

While he didn't get to in depth on the discussion in his weekly newsletter it seems like Larry Cosgrove is leaning towards a hotter summer for our area with plenty of thunderstorm chances especially from 40 N Lat and above. Also a sooner start and end to the tropical season.

The differences in amounts between these news outlets gets ridiculous and is probably the reason why so many people get caught offguard by these storms. Every news station wants to be the best when the ultimate goal should be to come up with the most accurate forecast for the public in terms of snowfall amounts. I mean you have one station calling for 3-6" while another is calling for 8-12" for the same area, to me that is a big difference which has happened plenty of times in the past.. Not everyone will channel through to see the forecasts for different stations and most usually watch only one news outlet. I really think there needs to be more and better coordination and communication IMO.

Agreed, its amazing what some meteorologists will do to support their forecast. One of the dumbest things I have ever heard. I follow him on twitter but sometimes he says some outlandish things.