WishingForWarmWeather

Is there a general consensus on about when landfall will be? I just want to make sure I am awake. 

6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

who's estimate? is there a link?

Here you go. I don't believe this is an "exact science" per se, but you can read about how they come to their algorithms, etc. 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

who's estimate? is there a link?

I will try to look for the link, but there is a resource that shows the hypothetical max of a hurricane in a general area. 

We're up to a 7.0 on Raw T, as well as Adjusted, and even a 6.9 on CI#. It's pretty clear that this is an intensifying hurricane, still, and that there is little to nothing standing in it's way except for an extremely quick and well timed ERC. 

All thoughts seem to point to the fact that that outer eyewall would take many hours to constrict. I do not think there will be any relief for Puerto Rico, and they are going to have a very strong Cat 5 at landfall. 

6 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Raw T#s were specifically mentioned in the NHC discussion and they are definitely pertinent to monitor as a pretty reliable sign of cyclone intensification or weakening.  Raw T is still slowly rising as you mentioned.  The drama yesterday was uneccessary.

 

Likely this cyclone is still intensifying.  The environment still looks ideal with only internal processes that could possibly lower max intensity until land interaction. 

I agree wholeheartedly. Thank you for your thoughts. 

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You need an explanation of what an ERC is?

Look, we are all pretty experienced here, so I think that while baseless assertions are never good, there are some estimations that can draw on a an tacit knowledgebase Not every expressed opinion requires an equation.

No, not at all. And I didn't mean to say that I didn't understand where you were coming from. It's just nice to see a train of thought, especially for the folks that just read and do not post. They see many different opinions being thrown around, and not many explain why. That's all that I was trying to say. Appreciate your thoughts, thanks. 

12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Right now the evidence shows a still strengthening system with raw t's increasing and cooling cloud tops. 

Agreed. Which is why I think people jumped on that "130 mph" prediction because there wasn't much evidence to support that, and none given to support his thinking. I just personally really respect when an opinion (whether it be popular or not) is backed up with scientific data and or at least the method of which they arrived there, so we can at least all follow along in the thinking process. 

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

It's just his guess. Though concentric banding is getting better organized, we have no way to know how that will evolve, even in the short term, or how quickly an ERC could progress. There is even a possibility that concentric eyewalls could develop and persist all the way into landfall with the outter eyewall not being intense enough to result in a weaker inner eyewall at landfall. All this stuff is a big unknown until it actually evolves IRL.

 

Understandable and I get where he's coming from, and you for backing him up.  HOWEVER, me personally, I'd really love for those "guesses" to be backed up with their reasoning, data and methodology of coming to that guess. I think that is what people are commenting on in this instance. 

I know the Raw T# has been a topic of some drama yesterday, but, I did want to mention that Raw T had been fluctuating and nearly stationary around 6.5-6.7 for hours now, but is back on the rise. It's currently up to 6.9 and climbing steadily. 

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 11 am, Hurricane Maria has continued to follow a track that is a shade north of the track taken by Hurricane #2 through the August 31-September 3 1896 period. Given the forecast synoptic pattern over the next 48-72 hours and the tracks depicted on the EPS and GEFS, such a trajectory just to the north of that taken by Hurricane #2 (1896) remains reasonable for that timeframe.  Such a track would bring Maria across Puerto Rico and north of Hispaniola.That idea is fairly close to the latest NHC forecast through 72 hours, winding up just south of the NHC's 72-hour forecast of 21.5°N 70.5° (about 21.0°N latitude at that point).

Overnight, the GEFS has moved closer to the EPS idea of Jose's retaining a larger and stronger center of circulation than had previously been the case on the GEFS. The NHC's 11 am discussion also hints at such an outcome noting:

The recent formation of convection to the southeast is beginning to give Jose the appearance of developing a large truck-tire eye with a diameter of approximately 100 nmi. Such eye patterns typically indicate a fairly stable cyclone that doesn't weaken or weakens only slowly.

The presence of Jose should reduce prospects of Maria's following the aforementioned hurricane's long-term path, which featured a bend back toward the U.S. East Coast. Therefore, considering the narrowing GEFS-EPS forecasts and a modest decrease in landfall prospects for hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Maria's 11 am position over the past 24 based on historic climatology, my thinking is that the probability of U.S. landfall (CONUS) has diminished somewhat from 40% to 30%.

Don, I really love these. This sort of discussion should become standard, I wish NHC would fully adopt this. I know they've tried here and there to start implementing it but nowhere near to the degree of depth and knowledge and data that you bring. I learn so much from you every day. Thank you. 

2 minutes ago, wxmx said:

The San Narciso hurricane from 1867 would be near the worst case scenario for San Juan, had it kept it's intensity as a major for a little longer.

 

And this is because it takes a dip under the island which puts them in the RFQ, as well as surge issues from that direction that it came in?

Just now, Windspeed said:

That temporary NW jog over the island since initial landfall was so cruel.

Heartbreaking. 

8 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Or the parallax effect

Wow. Incredibly interesting. Thanks so much for sharing. 

3 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Did you forget to take your medicine that keeps your ego in check? Take a chill pill.

 

GOES 16 has proven mighty useful this year. Already has paid for itself with the valuable data collected from Harvey, Irma, and now Maria. It is collecting one minute snapshots. The loops will be amazing!

I am so thankful for the facelift/update we got this year with satellites! It has truly proven to be invaluable. (Not to mention the visuals are absolutely astounding) 

9 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

raw T is straight weenie crack

Not really. It's extremely useful for RI. Usually I take Final T into considering, but Raw T is very telling under RI situations. But I understand where you're coming from! 

Raw T to 7.1. This is insanity. 

9 minutes ago, Amped said:

Raw T 6.7, probably around 130kts.  Gotta hate those 1.3T/6hr constraints during RI.

Up to 6.9 on raw T. 

Well, good... that's awesome. When I saw the city of Joplin after the tornado it sent chills down my spine for weeks after, just even to think about it. It looked nearly identical to what NOLA looked like after Katrina, just kind of on a smaller scale. I feel your pain more than you can understand. And yes, any volunteer is simply an angel on earth, no doubt about that. I have nothing but terrible things to say about Fema, but I am very glad you had a much better experience. I did see that story about the dog, I followed the whole story very closely, since it hit so closely to home. (Not only in literal terms-- I am in Norman, OK right now-- but in emotional terms as well).

A couple of updates. First of all FEMA denied the Missouri Gov. request for an extension on the 90% cleanup cost so it will revert to 75% FEMA/ 25% state and local. However, governor Jay Nixon announced today that the state will cover the full 25% of the state/local cleanup.

FEMA trailer park #1 is ready to go after the first of the storm shelters arrived.

Top half of concrete shelter that holds 35.

The school district has accepted a bid for cleanup at the destroyed schools and it now looks like all the temporary schools will be ready for school come Aug 17th. Every student gets a backpack full of supplies so parents don't have to buy any.

The school put the video back up which has a better contrast than the other video. They also added some pictures of people who had donated to the school an donations. I just can't believe how dark it was outside. The scenes that really get me are when it is pitch black and the door rips open to the outside at 44 seconds, the shot out the front door a 1:49, the hallway shot at 2:24 is amazing and it almost looks like a tsunami coming down the hall, the chunk of debris flying through the window at 2:33, the debris flying out at 2:50 and the end lunchroom scene. The lunchroom scene has me curious since there is an obvious 'swirl' to the debris which starts moving from right to left and then by the end moves left to right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZ7Fx4Gxu40

How has FEMA been handling it in Joplin? I was in New Orleans for Katrina (and many years after) and they handled it absolutely awful. I truly hope you're (and your town) are having a much easier time.