WishingForWarmWeather

8 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Reviewing models for both storms I say worst case DFW sees 0.5" QPF, meaning say 0.1" QPF as mix being 0.25" accumulation and 0.4" as snow at 10:1 being 4" accumulation. Most likely it is closer to 1" QPF with all as snow and at 14:1 ratio meaning 10 to 14" of snow. And of course even higher is possible. So say a range of 4 to 24".

Tyler could see 1.5 to 2" QPF but could lose 1/3 to mix and ratios more like 12:1. So 1 to 2" of ice and sleet along with 12 to 18" or snow. Worst case being 1" QPF and half lost to sleet being 1 to 2" sleet and 5" snow. Best case 2.5" QPF with 90% snow at 14:1 being 0.5 to 1" sleet and 30 to 36" snow. So say a range of 6 to 36".

 

 

What about Killeen, do you think?

34 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

I actually sort of checked out of the Laura threads right after landfall and missed discussion on why its surge was less than forecast...

But given enough forward speed, weakening on the shelf waters shouldn't lower the surge from Delta nearly as much as the winds, of course, presuming it's a fairly large storm with a large fetch. 

If I recall correctly, it wasn't. They found evidence of 17-18 foot surge, it's just the area was mainly uninhabited and Lake Charles was spared the worst of it.

You guys think Jerry could pull a loop and start over again with a fresh chance? 
 

Any recent model guidance about what happens after the south curve?

(Sorry if this is a stupid question)

Supposed photos from Abaco.

@mappy

CAPS, I believe, is the school he was at. Central Abaco Primary School.

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is your first post

11 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

We do this in the MIDATL... What's everyone drinking/munching on while binge watching TWC and refreshing sat shots?  For me it's Paulaner Oktoberfest and peanut butter filled pretzel bites

Quadruple rum splash of coke. 

My personal favorite sandy 

6 minutes ago, jacindc said:

Someone posted somewhere a link to a Twitter list of mets, officials, etc.--anyone have that?

 

I took a ss of it to remember. 

Can anyone provide a picture or loop of Flo right now? On my phone and don't have my bookmarks handy. 

Does anyone have a link to the recon schedule? I would have thought we would have more updated information from them more frequently today. Thanks in advance. 

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

 

 

 

 

Nice save there!

 

Hah! Yep, brain went automatically for a her but remembered otherwise. 

My name is Alex so I feel that pain often. 

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/112056.shtml

 

Oh! Didn't realize this was them , my bad. Yes, I really enjoy "Stewart" discussions. 

Just now, Windspeed said:

Stacy Stewart is the master of meteorological discussion of TCs and synoptic reasoning. That is all.

Do you have a link to something recent to read?

Found on reddit's /r/dataisbeautiful.

21 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

I both like and dislike the Morphed Microwave Imagery. It's neat to see the progression of the storm, but it can also be misleading in that everyone really needs to pay attention to the timestamps on the last actual microwave overpasses.

For those that aren't familiar with the CIMSS product, it takes microwave overpasses from the various satellites (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR, and GMI) and "fills in" the blank frames between the actual data. Because it is filling in the data (aka, morphing new frames between the known frames), it often gives misleading details on the evolution of the storm. The actual times of the passes vary (these are polar orbiting satellites), anywhere from a couple hours apart to sometimes as long as 10+ hours.

This is the actual latest microwave pass, which is 2.5 hours old now - clearly shows the new outer eyewall is now the dominant feature - if this was deep in the Atlantic, we'd already be saying the ERC was essentially done, but because we have both recon and radar, we know it's still got a very strong inner eyewall that hasn't yet given up the fight:

This is actually really incredible information -- is there somewhere where we can learn more about this? 

1 hour ago, wxmx said:

Latest Maria's IKE @11 pm EDT calculated by myself is 46 (up from 38 @5 pm EDT). SDP (Surge Destructive Potential Index), up to 3.7 from 3.4 (out of a max of 6)

This is probably the most important info we have. We all know winds are destructive in a very small area (and of course a relative amount outwards). Thanks for providing this. 

4 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

I'm getting about 40 nm for the OEW and 8 nm for the IEW. I always measure perpendicular to the beam so that my reference points are at the same height.

Yeah I had 8 nm so I was a bit confused. Thanks for clearing that up. 

1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

Outer eyewall has shrunk from about 28mi to about 22mi in the past hour, per radar.

It was 28 miles? I missed that. 

3 minutes ago, wxmx said:

No, but you can use the one that wanted you to plug the numbers. I explained where to get the data here

 

I got an IKE of 38.2 for Maria using the data from the 5pm EDT advisory

 

 

 

Thank you for that info. I was a bit confused on how to use the resource but that is extremely helpful. 

That seems so low for IKE. Is it because it's such a small eye and a relatively low time of being a cat5?

My god, that eyewall. 

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks.

Going to be close on where it weakens a bit, but not looking like it will be much at this point.

PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba?

3 minutes ago, wxmx said:

How high the storm surge will be? It's a good indicator, there's actually the SDP (surge destruction power) that's related to IKE. But there are other factors not taken into account, like coast geography, angle of approach and historic IKE prior to landfall. 

My SDP calculations yield an index of 3.2, out of a scale that goes from 0 to 6, where 6 is the max destruction power. Katrina had an index of 5.2

I was trying to find the resource that calculates IKE and had no luck, except for one that wanted me to plug in my own numbers. Do you know where to find the resource that people were posting for Irma that calculated her IKE? I'd love to see that for Maria. 

Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                7.0     7.3     7.3