WeatherMonger

1 minute ago, MNstorms said:

Sirens are still county based so if any of the county is in the warning that's why. They never changed it when warnings went from counties to polygons.

Maybe that's it then, but I know there have been tornado warnings in Sangamon county, usually before they get to me or just after passing and the sirens in town do not sound. Maybe damage reports coming in from Sherman prompted them to sound off again.

1 hour ago, MNstorms said:

They're not suppose to. Someone should be fired.

I emailed the fire chief here for clarification on the second warning siren sounding. First one went off around 6:15pm for the circulation(and very likely tornado) near/over Sherman. The second sounded around 6:36pm with no active warnings over the area. The closest warning was from 6:19pm for a "large and extremely dangerous tornado" near Williamsville, well out of the way of Springfield. A new warning was issued at 6:38pm for a confirmed tornado even further ENE from Springfield.

I can't find anything supporting my "all clear" activation. Curious to see if I get a response, but I'll swear to it, they have done it before.

Hearing about reports of a lot of homes destroyed in Sherman. 

1 minute ago, MNstorms said:

 

That's not how it works. They don't do that.

They've done it here plenty of times, been awhile simce they have went off so can't confirm if they did the same last time or not.

Wasn't any type of warning at the time, hell, wasn't even worthy of a SWS IMBY, seen like 3 pea sized hail stones and maybe a gust to 40. Like 2 miles north in Sherman may be a different story.

Must be the all clear

Tornado sirens gping off again here

Confirmed tornado a couple miles north 

Line is almost here

23 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Snowing at a rate heavy enough to overcome ground temp now, grass is about 3/4 covered and roads/driveway getting a coating.

Still coming down at a pretty good rate.

12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

That is truly white rain. Lol. Looks like it's starting to accumulate. It's snowing decent here but not hard enough to stick. Our precip looks to end soon. I'm on very nw edge of deformation band. 

Snowing at a rate heavy enough to overcome ground temp now, grass is about 3/4 covered and roads/driveway getting a coating.

10 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

You getting any lightning? Saw some strikes near Springfield. Reflectivity impressive near you. 

Not currently, had some thunder earlier but was on a computer away from window so not sure if it was snowing then or not. Was surprised when I looked out the window and seen it snowing heavy.

Starting to coat but only going to create frozen slush

It is raining snow here now, melting on impact but huge flakes just pouring down.

Just upgraded to a high wind warning here for gusts to 60. Had a 54mph gust last hour according to airport.

44 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Lol hrrr also has the screw zone over me. Peoria dome lives on. But obviously mesoscale banding impossible to nail till the day of. 

ILX cracking me up. Sadly I don't know if they are correct and LSX is a bit agressive, but the advisory map lools funky

Think they could have at least issued an advisory this afternoon. 

Lackluster system at best for here regardless, don't want a 2nd half of winter 1st half spring winter.

8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Haha. Cuz I'm more use to disappointment than snowstorms panning out. PTSD. Also there's too many damn GHD day storms to remember. Lol. As much as I want to hope it ends up as nw as gem and gfs I'm not getting my hopes up because a more se like euro also is just as plausible. All comes down to the phasing.

My works Christmas party got canceled due to the pre Christmas "storm" on 12/22. Just announced earlier this week it is rescheduled for 1/25. 

Holding out hope they have to cancel yet again

Merry Christmas everyone!!

ILX latest on it. Calling 1-3" conservative for now. 

.UPDATE... Issued at 1009 AM CST Tue Dec 20 2022

The main change this morning is an earlier peak in wintry precip seen in the latest model guidance, which is now forwarded about 6 hours. In other words, the most robust snowfall rates appear to come Thursday afternoon and extend through the Thursday evening commute. Snowfall rates may approach 1"/hr for a brief time, and with winds whipping at 35-45 mph, visibility will significantly deteriorate. Blizzard-like conditions will make travel extremely difficult or impossible Thursday evening. Then, as snow begins to taper Friday morning, blowing and drifting snow has the potential to prolong travel impacts into Saturday morning. At this time, our posture hasn`t changed much on the strong winds and extreme cold. We remain conservative on snowfall amounts with 1-3" inches likely (90% confidence) across the Winter Storm Watch area. The potential for 6" + is still lurking under any sort of mesoscale banding, but realistically, we need another 12-24 hours before we try to pinpoint where that heavier axis will develop. This is when some of the hi-res ensemble guidance (HREF model) will come available for us to better resolve mesoscale banding.

11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm not excited yet because there's too many moving pieces and a lot that can go wrong. Still worried gfs could be right with a further south and east track. Really won't know for a few more days till we get sampling of upper data and see how this 1st wave evolves Mon. 

I'm not excited either, one thing that has a bit of optimism going for me is the OP, CS doesn't make fantasy threads or overhype. I always pay attention when he starts them. Still remember the monster clipper from accuwx days, he started the thread less than 48 hours out when no one else had mentioned it,  it had WSWarnings from IA into OH with 6"+ totals, had to have been '07-'09 or thereabouts. Miss the historical data that site had in it. Forever lost.

46 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

You're not lying. Def trust hrrr more than nam. Really hoping euro has this one slam dunked. Gfs solution would just suck. Lol. So close yet so far away. 

Truthfully, I cannot remember the last time this year I was excited about the weather ahead. It has been that benign for so long, I've grown accustomed to yawntivity throughout the atmosphere  

2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I see 18z gfs is continuing to gfs. I'm eager to see this in nam's range in a few days.

I think I'll hold off until HRRR range and then wait for the last minute adjustment, NAM has broke my heart more times than I can count inside of 48 hours 

ILX AFD

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022

The focus for this period continues to be:
(1) Extreme cold;
(2) Strong winds; and
(3) Some snow.

Extreme Cold:
Confidence remains high that an arctic outbreak will occur in wake
of a departing winter storm system Thursday - Saturday.
Deterministic NBM guidance is suggesting daily highs in the low
teens or single digits with overnight lows near or below zero.
These temperatures, coupled with strong winds, will result in wind
chill values of 10-30 degF below zero both Friday and Saturday
mornings. Surprisingly, as cold as its going to get, it will fall
well short of records. Less extreme cold returns following
Christmas day, but temperatures will remain well below normal for
this time of year.

Winds:
Strong baroclinicity and a rapidly deepening surface low will
result in very gusty winds Thursday - Saturday across the
Midwest. Sustained speeds between 20-25 mph will be accompanied by
frequent gusts between 30-40 mph. There is now enough semblance
among guidance to make this a high confidence threat.

Snow:
While the 12z GFS and its suite of ensemble guidance has come into
better alignment with the CMC, ECMWF, and UKMET with regards to a
closed, upper-low evolving across the Midwest on Thursday, there
are still notable differences with respect to amplitude, timing,
and orientation of this feature. The most probable outcome for
central Illinois at this juncture favors the Grand Ensemble mean,
which paints about 0.25" of QPF across our area. With a snow ratio
of 12:1, this puts us at a few inches of accumulating snow. At
this point, with such high variance among forecast guidance, it
does little good to provide synoptic and mesoanalysis of what
could happen 5-6 days out. But looking at the conceptual model of
the system, there`s a strong likelihood that somebody across the
Midwest gets hammered by this one.

ILX pretty late with their AFD. Late morning update ended with this.

Edit, N/M garbage phone having caching issues. Checked with other phone and it was put at 2:49

Quote

We`ll soon begin analyzing the latest suite of 12z deterministic
and ensemble guidance to assess next week`s hazard potential.
Dangerously cold conditions and accumulating snow will headline
this afternoon`s AFD.

Guessing by the lack of ppsts today is much ado about nothing, but with as boring as this Spring has been here I'll take anything I can get. Could probably count on one hand the days I have heard thunder thus far.

Expansive slight risk added

15 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I'm getting Flagstaff AZ.  The page isn't working. 

Think you just needed to click on APX star