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Everything posted by josh_4184
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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Looks like total from both synoptic and LES is around 29" Picked up another 5-6" last night. -
Picked up a little snow the past 48 hours. Yes that's my patio table somewhere in all of that.
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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Picked up about 10" synoptic and another 12-14"+ of LES so far hard to really gauge due to wind and drifting. Took me over 2 hours to clear my driveway using my plow, blower and shovel. Over 60" on the year now. This Pic below of my patio table isn't a true representation of snowfall/depth as its against my house and protected somewhat from the snow. The fence is about 28" high for reference. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yea was pretty surprised especially for a synoptic event, usually we don't do to well with front end thumps, usually do better in the deformation zone. LES looking pretty solid for a day or so. No complaints, next couple weeks looking pretty sad for most everyone but certainly wont complain about my area. La Ninas for my area are feast or famine, alot of times the SE Ridge cuts most systems to my west torching us but I have had other years where they do well and the clipper train kicks in. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Picked up about 9" so far, looking like may another 1-3" tonight then 6-10" les on the back end. Not to shabby as models earlier were showing more mix/frz. Im pushing 50" for the season so far, 2/3rds of last years total lol. Considering my average is around 160" in my area. Def a great start to the season. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
To bad it wont verify for my area. Although I cant complain I have already had 12" event a several 3-6" events. I know it sucks for Eastern Lake belts........ -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yea, we did have one but canceled pretty early, one big gripe with APX is they tend to error on side of major caution when it comes to headlines. I cant count how many times we have had warning criteria snowfall without any headlines at all. Up here most folks are just used to it I guess. Pretty crazy how localized this was even for a LES event, major differences only a few miles away. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
You guys will get in on the action, Im hopeful all the GL LES Belts do well this year, we certainly deserve it. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Latest Pics just taken, snow finally stopped, snow depth around 8.5" not to bad considering low ratio and high compaction/melting rate. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yes we had advisories last night, but they expired around 4 today. I'm around 12" for total event now. NWS APX which is about 5 miles to my east reported 11" for the event. Snow depth is around 8: as iits compacted a lot, S/R really low around 9:1 if this was higher around typical ratios for my area during LES of around 18:1 would be looking at a 20" event. Not to shabby for 1st week of November. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Still snowing -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Sounds good ill chill over here when I do have time to get on. Nice being around other LES members again. BTW still snowing,, 1-2" per hr at the moment. Lakes really have come to life the past few hours with the weak trough passing though. Looks like about 5-6 otg hard to get a good measurement as its melting from underneath. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Sounds good, didn't want to inundate your forum with Lake Mich/Sup LES if your mainly focused on Erie and Huron but would be happy to add perspective form NWL Mich. Haven't been a huge fan of the direction of the GL Sub so lost a lot of interest. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Haven't seen Bo post in quite some time, him and I chatted a bunch in PM in the past but been MIA. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Hey Buffalo, how have things been? Ill poke around every now and then, hopefully all the LES areas cash in this year as last year was brutal, my area set a record low for snowfall around 77". Not quite sure what to think about this years potential, but the low bar was set last year that's for sure. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Hey Matt , not sure where everyone went all LES guys are pretty much gone in the GL Sub. Your sub seems way more active especially pertaining to LES belts. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Not much action on my sub anymore been a away myself for a bit thought I would send out a pic of what's headed your way, been getting hammered the last few hours, about 5" so far still coming down. -
Back to Back Major Synoptic Snowstorms!
josh_4184 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yea my specific area is about 50-60" below for the year, NWS APX is showing: way below for Gaylord Proper, basically any snowbelts that normally rely on NW or WNW flow. This year ha been very odd in all my years I have seen such rare wind flows from the WSW, SW, or even ENE be the primarily direction. In the average year the most common winds are primarily out of the NW or WNW which is how my area gets hit but obviously there are exceptions and this year is certainly one of them. Even the UP is in similar situation with the possible exception of the Keweenaw. I cant ever remember a time where Chicago has had a deeper snowpack than my area, in average winters I normally see at least once a winter a 40" snowpack I think this year the deepest I got was to about 18". Not sure about the WNY belt members but I have been ready for spring since about Jan 1st. -
Yea I was thinking such a waste of a warm Lake Mi with the PV with this crappy 850 flow, had such potential if the winds weren't w or wsw like they have been the past 10 days. Now the lake is icing up so almost time to put a lid of a terrible LES season for almost all the normal heavy hit areas. My area has the potential to be 60-80" down on average snow for the year.
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A lot of nice restaurants opened recently downtown now as well in Gaylord, not that you can actually dine again if you are into that as well. A couple nice micro breweries /etc.
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Yes Nice Park, the trails are good although never been in the winter. Seeing the large Elk is pretty awesome. Not sure how deep the snow will be however I have about 15-17" OTG currently. Probably less over on that side of Gaylord area.
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Ended with about 3-4 overnight nothing special. Whole event for a couple days was about 10" areas NW of me did better with more LES. Looks like downstate LES belts did pretty well too.
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Picked up about 7" of synoptic Thursday night, only light LES throughout the day, strongest banding was towards my NW as I anticipated with the WSW/W flow earlier targeting Petoskey area towards Boyne down to Ellsworth. Now flow has switch to more of a WNW flow and been getting hit heavy the past hour or so, depending on how long it takes for the dry air to move in will depend on how much can pick up. If it it holds off until morning can see 6-8" more for my area..
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Northern lower or UP? Gaylord will do well, the clown maps never model the heaviest snow for my area, it seems to always slam Mancelona, Bellaire, and EJ, however my area towards Elmira, down to just north of Kalkaska always have the most snog otg. With that being said the initial LES setup with be more west based or wsw which will favor Petoskey/Emmet county and towards Boyne area. If?? When the 850 flow changes more to a WNW or NW flow that's where my area cashes in. Granted we will still see 8-10" into early weekend, then antipirate another 3-4" each day maybe more depending on banding/flow not moving to much. Safe bet that most NWL Michigan will have a good snowpack in the next 2 weeks, exactly where the deepest hardest hit will as always depend on who gets under the heaviest banding which is always a guessing game. In UP I would say near Grand Marais toward Paradise or Keweenaw will get hit good.
