Snowstorms

We need a repeat of the February 1965 snowstorm. 

20" locally. I'd gladly take it again. 

37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

mood flakes 

Snowpocalypse. 

1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

YYZ and most of the GTA in general keeps its run of good luck going. widespread 1-3" for everyone from the Nor'easter and another 2-4" for areas that can get the lake effect snow. Ill wait and see but some local stations are even mentioning Oakville-Hamilton could see 6-8". 

Interesting set-up. Wouldn't be surprised to see 10-20cm from Oakville to Hamilton. Depending on the wind orientation and approaching storm clouds tomorrow morning, we'll have to see how strong and persistent the band is in Toronto. For now, 2-5cm sounds reasonable for the city. 

Icon has 6-9" for Buffalo lol 

12z RGEM is coming in further north and west as well. Aligned with 3km NAM. Has accumulating snow in Buffalo and Syracuse. Maybe a couple inches esp for Syracuse? Sweet LES band in Toronto before it moves further south as winds change orientation. Not a huge expert on lake effect so maybe somebody can chime in on that for me.

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

3k

That's a sweet lake effect band just west of Toronto tomorrow. With a further north track, it’ll help reduce the dry air in the atmosphere and help seed the lake clouds for better lake effect for us. Good all-around for all of us in ON and NY. Let’s see if the RGEM follows suit. 

12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Boston is wayyy better than NYC. A big dog is always better than anything else, there's no denying that. the very paltry snow amounts in between is why the east coast for a winter lover would suck from NYC south. Thats my take. Bostons run from late Jan to late Feb 2015 was unlike anything, even in a snowbelt. even that far north on the coast isn't all fun though...theyve also had 4 winters the last 20 years with 17" or less total snowfall. The past 2 winters COMBINED in Boston come out to an inch less than the yearly average, thats why you have New England meltdowns. every weenie regardless the climate is very "what have you done for me lately".

This is some impressive stuff right here...

Avg snowfall

Detroit 

1900-1999: 39.1"

2000-2020: 47.1"

 

Chicago 

1900-1999: 36.6"

2000-2020: 39.9"

 

New York City

1900-1999: 26.3"

2000-2020: 31.6"

 

Boston

1900-1999: 41.0"

2000-2020: 47.9"

To add to what you said. Big Dog's just aren't frequent in our area because of our geographic location. With the Atlantic running exceptionally warm over the last 10-20 years, the average clipper usually blows up to a full blown Nor'easter and slams the NE including Boston. New England meltdowns are hilarious. Even a 40" winter wouldn't satisfy their appetite. . But great points. I always appreciate your in-depth analysis and posts. I could tell you're a hardcore stats guy so I try not to challenge you on anything stat wise. 

Detroit and Boston have definitely seen a sizeable increase in snowfall over the last 20 years compared to other cities. But 20 years is a very small sample size. The averages, atleast for us, are bolstered by exceptionally snowy winters like 2002-03, 2004-05, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2013-14, etc. Would be nice to experience storms like the Blizzard of 99 every 2-3 years. Is that too much to ask for? We need a Christmas miracle. 

2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

in a few days NYC will have had more snow for the season than most of Upstate NY, RLMAO!!!

It's 2020, it's acceptable this year. 

6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Rgem not buying it..

 

12Z hasn't ran yet. Let's see. 

8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

In a similar Nina pattern go look at what happened off of Ontario in 2006-2007.  Lake Erie was on the verge of freezing, if it was 1-2 weeks sooner similar totals would have been found off of Erie.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=L

Isn't Lake effect off Ontario usually all winter long because it's a deeper lake? There are exceptions of course during cold winters like 2013-14 or 2014-15. Unlike Lake Erie which usually freezes over because its shallower. But over 100" in a week? WOW! That's insane!!! 

Feb 2013 blizzard was legit for our region. I'm sure fellow Ontarian posters will attest to that. 10 straight hours of +SN with visibility around 0.2 miles. Widespread 12-18". 

Models are adamant on a lake effect band setting up from Toronto to Hamilton on Wednesday A lot of it depends on the storm track. A further north track will mean a stouter lake effect band due to better cloud seeding from the storm. The 3km NAM has moisture getting up north to Ohio which is good for our region. Potential is definitely there for 2-4"+. 

7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

The last Chicago storm that was actually on that level of intensity was GHD I. That was nine years ago. Undoubtedly, even GHD II fails to really impress compared to a big coastal bomb. 

GHD 1 was a major bust for us. Glad Chicago was able to record over 20" with that. Off the top of my head, these are the only storms that I've personally experienced that are near the caliber of some of these east coast storms. And even then, they get over 20" sometimes 30" lol. 

Jan 28-29, 2019: 14" 

Feb 4-5, 2014: 13" 

Feb 7-8, 2013: 16" 

Jan 17-18, 2009: 12"

Mar 7-8, 2008: 12"

Feb 5-6, 2008: 14"

Dec 15-16, 2007: 14" 

17 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Gotta say, I’ve lived in Chicago for 8 years now. Nothing here compares to east coast storms. Nothing. And the winters the past couple years here have been positively atrocious. 

I agree completely. Boston got over 100" back in 2014-15 lol. Most of them big storms >15". They've been on a crazy run over the last 20 years which pales in comparison to some of our big winters i.e. 2007-08, 2008-09, 2013-14, etc. And yet despite all that, you should see some of the meltdowns in the New England forum lol. 

Yet were here pondering over storms like GHD 1, March 08 blizzard or Blizzard of 99 still. They've been exceeding seasonal averages with the exception of last year and 2011-12 for a long time. The day we start getting big blizzards like the Blizzard of 99 on a regular basis like some of these east coast folks, we shouldn't compare our petty 3-6" events. I'll take one of those big dogs every winter if that's all we get. And with our geographic location, we'll be able to retain that for a lot longer than them. 

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Dec 15 was the warmest ever by almost 5 degrees, Dec 2018 was +3.2

Average temp 42.1    2015

Dec 2015 had 1" of snow

Dec 2018 had 14.1"

There is a very strong correlation between above average snowfall in Dec and above average snowfall years at KBUF. Mainly due to lake Erie freezing in late jan/early feb. We get about 10 weeks of lake effect potential each year, have to make full use of it.

You can see the top 10 list of all weather data for KBUF here

https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10

42.1F? Wow that's warm. The mean at YYZ was 39.3F. December 2015 was the warmest ever recorded and also least snowiest ever. Good stuff. If Jan isn't frigid, you might even get lake effect mid-late Feb if it can start-up lol.

Cool. Will check that link out right now. Thanks! 

29 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Normal people always remembers the big dogs, never the small dogs....

me, personally. I enjoy winter. I’ll take dozens of 5-10” events over one 20” event every 3-4 years and nothing in between. But that’s me. 

NYC's snowfall average has gone way up over the last 20 years. I'm sure it's the same for surrounding areas. There was a time they used to get those 15"+ blizzards every few years but its become a yearly thing now, sometimes twice. So yeah, I'll take that any day over these petty 3-6" events. 

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Jackpot!!

A Christmas Miracle. 

41 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yesterday was +16 at Buffalo. +3.5 for the month

56/38 High/Low

How warm were Dec 2015 and Dec 2018? 

12 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

My location (I've only been here a year and a half) supposedly averages 135ish inches a year. Lots of 3 to 6 inch events are common here. Over recent years, there have been many SW wind lake effect events that have given the goods to the Watertown area and the northern Tug Hill. We need some clippers and synoptic events that give us snowfall from the system and then with the lake influence from behind.

This past Thursday was the biggest event so far with 2 inches. (lol) It's been numerous dustings/coatings/and half inchers that have mostly melted by the end of the day they fall on.

3-6" events are a common thing in the Great Lakes. We haven't had a good clipper in years though. I'm assuming W or NW winds are the best for your region. 

It's been a terrible start to winter, yet again. Dec 2017 was the last best December. Hoping we can turn things around post Dec 20. 

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

5 or 6 inches. Pathetic.

Lysander is literally south of Lake Ontario, I'm surprised. What's your seasonal average? There's been a few lake effect snow outbreaks off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron and of course, the Cleveland storm recently. I'm shocked you haven't gotten anything respectable yet. Terrible winter. We got lucky with that November storm in Toronto but aside from that, it's been extremely frustrating. 

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Has there ever been upslope along the Niagara Escarpment from an easterly LES event? I think it might not be angled correctly?

That looks almost like a due East wind. The only time the escarpment dries out precip, especially east towards the City, is when winds are out of the SW. In this case, it wouldn't have any impact on Lake Effect in the city. 

Edit: How much snow have you recorded so far?

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Icon vs all, I like our odds..

And 00Z Nam if extrapolated. 

9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It looks amazing. By far the best looking run for much of Upstate NY. Wish it would come true.

I like that little lake effect snow strip right into Toronto. 4-8"? Hell yeah. 

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here are the lowest snow totals for Chicago through December 20.  Currently at 0.7" and given how the upcoming week+ looks, there's a good chance 2020 will remain on this list.

Can ignore 1996.  Some missing data and I know that there happened to be accumulating snow during that time.  So the real record for least snow through Dec 20 is 0.2"

 

And how did those top 10 winters fair out in the end, 1996 aside. 

29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

A small area of light snow came through earlier this evening and brought our first accumulation for the day with 0.3".  Enough to bump us over the 1" mark for the season.  

I thought you got 2" with the storm?