Quixotic1
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Everything posted by Quixotic1
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I prefer them to anything. There aren't high expectations so I'm not chomping at the bit waiting for each HRR update. If we whiff who cares? It's when it's 48 out from a forecasted good event I freak. -
It's probably overdoing the SE ridge.
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pretty sharp west to east cutoff on that graphic!
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Yep. Lets hope for 95-96, 83-84 or 00-01. Some of the early 60 ones were monsters. i am going to be pretty peeved if my flight tomorrow evening gets delayed....
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If you go back and look at other ninas, December outbreaks seem to be prevalent. Off the top of my head: 08, 05 (a dreadful winter), 00, 98(another awful winter), 95, 89, 88, 83.......there are exceptions such as 10 and 11. Overall
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I'm traveling so can't see. What are the Euro and GFS saying?
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My gauge still has 10.4 from 2015 as its record low. Of course it didn't start up until December of 2013. Feels like it's been forever since we've talked about cold, DPs, flurries........
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Looks like a bomb might go off in the upper midwest next week. 978?
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Worst ice storm I ever saw was the 1978 New Year's Eve storm. DFW didn't get much but where I lived we lost half our trees, had icicles hanging from the second story all the way to the ground and were without power for 6 days. Couldn't even go outside because of all the downed power lines. I can see 78-79 as well as 83-84. The extremity of the cold makes me hesitate. But as analogs, I think both are serviceable. AMO had a tendency to be negative back then if I remember correctly.
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Thanks. I'd take 45 after last year. I'd like to see a bit colder. 42 would be nice and not too unreasonable. 2009 had some cold and snow. Will have to go and check just how cold.
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Yes. You're right. I pulled the data for another reason mostly to do with the winter overall and we end up with the old "do we use 83 or 84 to describe the winter" bugaboo. It's easier to write one year than two and 108 years is a lot. Thanks for the catch.
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So, talking about cold Decembers, we got four that stand out during the time period of 1900 to 2008: 1909, 1914 and 1989 (2.35, 2.26 and 2.47 Standard Deviations respectively) and the grand daddy of them all: 1983 which is a whopping 3.77 Standard Deviations below normal.
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I've been thinking about 83. I'd be genuinely interested to see how extreme it was in terms of averages. I've got all that data on a csv file so I can probably put it on a distribution easy enough.
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If I were a betting man, I'd bet on panel D. The strength of last year's Nino with a pretty strong jet leads me to believe cold will be more zonal than not.
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I love 83-84. Love love love. Second most memorable winter for DFW. But to be honest, the background state is so much different. I don't know how you build a dome of cold like December 83 or even February of 1899. The globe is generally warm, particularly in NA. The cold over in eurasia won't help us if it has to go across a sea with less than normal ice and Canada without snow.
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I'll tell you, 89 was a late arrival much like 15. I want a front to back winter but 13-14 is pretty rare.
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Heard rumbles of thunder off and on tonight with little on the radar indicating any type of convection.
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On the bright side, 63-64 was a terrific winter. Measurable snow for all four months.
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00-01 was a good winter. Most of the damage was done in December. Multiple events. First week featured FZRA second week IP and SN and TRSN the last two weeks. On the 27th I was trying to put some toys together for the kids and heard lots of thunder. Picked up a quick 6" in about an hour and a half. Went out and had snowball fight with the neighbors' kids. Big fist sized flakes.
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I'm starting to get on board with those who're going with a much warmer than normal winter. I hate to be a gloomy gus, but right now DFW is on pace to shatter the record for warmest October. We are at 75.3 for the month. The next on the list is 1938 at 73.1. Looking at other anomalously warm Octobers and you see nothing but dog winters. last year's El Niño really did a job on us last year. I fear the hangover might carry over into this one as well.
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Yeah. Waco aggravates me too. They always seem to have more snow, rain, cold and heat even though they are 90 miles south of DFW.
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2013-2014. Book it.
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October is the bellwether. Pun intended. If this is going on as we approach Halloween, then I will panic.
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107 sounds about right for an annual max.
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I think 14-15 is the analog that was meant instead of 15-16.