Quixotic1
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Everything posted by Quixotic1
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Well, if it ain't us, I hope it's somewhere near by or further south. I'm really jonesing for flakes though. -
the update earlier mentioned possible changes in the afternoon package. They seem to believe run to run consistency and how many models are predicting snow out weighs the typical superiority of the euro.
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Meh. It doesn't take much. Assuming 10:1 ratio a tenth or two of liquid precip would be nice.
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I don't see how the models blow such a large signal like the wpo and the epo. Highly disappointing.
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January severe weather. Haven't seen measurable Snow in 22 months now.
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January severe weather. Haven't seen measurable Snow in 22 months now.
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Yeah. If we are getting into this weekend and things aren't settling on a solution it's going to be anxiety time. Anything hanging back is good news. Going to be patient. Going to go look at the euro now.
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18z went north.
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Get the cold. Worry about precip later.
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Nice work. I would recommend checking for overfit of your model. I've got some background for you if you're interested. I had a model at work that had a ridiculous r squared but was overfit. I did some digging around and found out the original data, unbeknownst to me, had been in triplicate. Creating overfit. Anywho, I'd be happy to take a look at it for you if you're interested. I think Judah Cohen and the Italian guys fell victim to it. Cheers.
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nice to see some west nao blocking......
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Little anecdote from this morning: haven't been able to cut the yard because of travel, work and school but the grass really hasn't been growing. This morning I went out for firewood and there's a big dandelion about 2 feet tall. I thunked it and it broke like glass.
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Little anecdote from this morning: haven't been able to cut the yard because of travel, work and school but the grass really hasn't been growing. This morning I went out for firewood and there's a big dandelion about 2 feet tall. I thunked it and it broke like glass.
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It's an ambient weather. I don't have a rain gauge. It does an accurate job on the temps. I verify it with a thermometer occasionally. It trends the pressure really well. I triangulated it from Denton McKinney and Addison. Did the same thing with the humidity. There are far less lazy ways to ensure accuracy but hasn't seemed to need it. I wanted a Davis but someone gave me this instead... been pretty happy. The only thing I wish it could do is record daily highs and lows.
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9 IMBY. Breaks the old record of 10 back in January 2015. i expect it to be smashed tonight with lower winds and maximum cooling. This front reminds me of January 20, 1985.
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North Frisco. I can literally throw a rock into prosper.
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25 and light snow or drizzle falling here.
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Since noon we've gone from 68 to 46. Impressive.
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front is right on top of us. Changing from west to northwest winds.
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so that's a drop off from 7PM to 1AM local time? Not unheard of. Hasn't happened in awhile. Christmas 2012 comes to mind.
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FWD sounding bullish about this weekend. Essentially that even though moisture will be limited, the forcing as the base of the trough swings through will be very strong.
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I don't know what the GFS is saying. It's all over the place.
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So after looking at the recent guidance, one trend stands out. It seems to be a gradual but persistent "press" where the cold gradually sinks rather than blasts through. These patterns are awesome because once they set in they are slow to move. Even better we are on the fringe which means our precip chances go up. The last three days of the 00z GFS are fun to look at.
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oh man. if only.
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I got 29 IMBY. According to the radio on the way in, Corsicana and Hillsboro were reporting snow.