Quixotic1

Yep! Actually a small system and then two storms where we got 6" in each of em. You were so upbeat and I had already buried the winter.

09-10 was awesome. I'd take it. Low solar too. I expect blocking to improve next year. as for this year, killdeer are here in force. That is pretty much a tombstone for us.

Looks like a fast mover. What I wouldn't give for some blocking.

2008 is a good analog IMO. Had some vicious severe weather.

I saw that. HM was tweeting about it. There was another met (I think Sam Lillo but get me to lying) that had done some work on it. Seems the theory was that the forcing from last year's El Niño was so strong it disrupted the QBO. One of the most regular oscillations in weather went AWOL.

Yeah, I wish I had the data at my fingertips but the best way I can describe it is a stratospheric tendency. If you've got a strong force teleconnection wise such a strong El Niño or strong La Niña, the QBO isn't going to change it. However it can be an additive force. A strong with a +qbo is just going to amplify the enso signal. If it's negative, the hope for blocking is much better. When the Qbo kept going positive my heart sank. Just another nail in the coffin. Next year we should be negative. Emphasis on "should".

Man that would be awesome! I hope someone south of here gets a surprise.

Got 11 freezes at DFW. Record fewest occurrences in a season is 14.

Yeah. It's a bust so far. Maybe we can pull a 2008 type week out of there. That was another weak Nina after a Nino. It was really warm. Had one storm come through at night and gave us a few inches of paste after a 60 degree day and it was gone by noon as temps rebounded into the 50s. Had a bigger thundersnow event the same week where tarrant and Denton had up to 9" and Dallas got 1". Here in Collin we got about 3" but if it had been colder we could have been like Tarrant. Then it was gone. Severe season was good though. honestly the QBO should have been taken in as a greater factor. It's strange behavior maybe should have indicated how things were more zonal rather than meridonal. Showed just how strong the Nino was last year. I haven't heard of them but it looks reasonable. It has to be better than last year because we torched. Hope you make out well though!

Reports of IP in N.Texas.

Nice work Bubbahotep! February and March of 89 were keepers. Both had surprise events that kept me out of work/school for a few days.

Runs like today are why I don't buy subscriptions. Ugh.

Storms are really moving!

This is a trip! Mammatus clouds with no storms!

Interesting. I did something similar comparing land falling hurricanes in Texas and the subsequent winters. The chi2 plots showed absolutely no difference temperature wise (temps are the bigger deal here because of the lack of elevation) in all months except one: January. Winters after no Hurricane landfalls were more likely to be colder than warm. Cray cray.

Ugh. This why I avoid long range: either overhype or despair. I prefer old school teleconnections. I think I can talk myself into it with histograms rather than maps. Haha. CPC has us BN days 10-14. Maybe? i will say this: the current pattern will make for an interesting spring. I think we (the U.S. ) will have our busiest severe season since 2011.

I know but overall there's a "meh" kind of quality to it. NAO is going negative. Great for the east. EPO is going slightly negative so a shot of cold isn't out of the question. The PNA and AO argue against anything earthshaking. And that jet is insane. I see zonal and that is bad. Hope I'm wrong. That jet is nuts for a Nina. Absolutely nuts. It's like they moved the ITCZ north about 20 degrees.

certainly better than last year. I can buy a real weather station for a real winter next fall.

Winter is on deathwatch.

Got a bunch of stuff in my yard that wasn't there this morning. Vent covers, shingles and what not. All the patio furniture got slammed.into the fence. First time I've seen that in 5 years.

12z gives us multiple chances. all of them close calls but I like that look better than one fantasy land bomb over our area.

Looks like outbreak of 1898 type stuff. Gimme.

Phases 1,2 and 3. Not too shabby!

I say that every winter/spring when it's boring and nothing to track. I'm still optimistic about later in the winter. Maybe end of January - Early March. Right now, there's little blocking to send cold air our way. Maybe some storms to track this weekend but it seems pretty "meh". Strat warming about to commence. Never know where the dump will be though.

And then, depression set in.........