SBUWX23

A winter storm is not likely. Can we change this thread?

Those squalls out on eastern LI had awesome graupel. 

Just now, USCG RS said:

@SnowGoose69  @brooklynwx99 @wdrag @forkyfork @SBUWX23 or any other met, or someone with knowledge, who would like to chime in.

It appears that these types of bands are impossible to predict, even right up to game time. That's also what I've always seen said  

That withstanding, is there anything that can point to where a band like this may set up - geographically prior to now casting? Or are we just not technologically advanced enough to see and predict where these will set up?

Not really sure but Bernie Rayno says follow the 528 thickness line, but that was news to me 

Just now, USCG RS said:

@SBUWX23 Man that weenie band missed long Island by the skin of its teeth. 

Thankfully we still got solid snowfall. Could easily have been skunked. Definitely wasn't subsidence over us or we would not have anything 

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

3.5 inches on tabletops in madison square park, report just came from Tomer Burg on twitter. If that park can get over 3", so can Central Park.

Official measurements are every 6 hours and don't happen on a tabletop.

Nice snow out there now with these last bands coming through eastern LI.

Just now, psv88 said:

3” or so 

Guess it was a bust.

@psv88 how'd you do? Even for portions N of the band should have at least 2 or 3 inches. Was never in heavy rates where I am in Yaphank and still have close to 3 and snowing still.

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

From OKX's local storm reports.

I see them now thanks I missed the LSRs.

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Select snowfall amounts:

Islip: 3.1"
New York City-Central Park: 2.0"
New York City-JFK Airport: 6.1"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 2.7"
Newark: 3.7"

Highest so far: Center Valley, PA: 13.8"

Where did you get the NYC area amounts from

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Unbelievable. Best rates since Boxing Day 2010 

And it's AllSnow

Just now, Rmine1 said:

Snowing nicely, but the death band seemingly sliding under most of LI. 2” at most is likely 

It's inching north

Park is at 32 now..so much for it being too warm.

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The lighter stuff north of Harrisburg should pivot through here and give us a couple inches maybe. But that fronto band was how we had a chance at more than that. It'll be a nailbiter for the south shore or if it stays just off the beach.

Still seems like things are ever so slightly inching north. 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Think the heaviest stays south of the island. Congrats NJ

Can't wait for your ripping posts soon

Just now, USCG RS said:

I think LI is another good spot here. 

Been thinking the same thing but seems to be differing opinions on this. Maybe east end isn't as great but think at least western half should be ok. Some south shore places may see more in this one than Tuesday.

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Tomer Burg says the northern band of snow is dying out as the southern band takes control and strengthens, which would lead to a dry slot north of Trenton. Concerning if it happens.

Look at radar. That band he said that reformed looks to be heading in the direction of the city. 

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

That’s fine. There seems to be a concerted effort here to make 38° sound like it’s a normal overnight temp in February and cold enough for snow. The snow is gonna have to start falling and the temperature is gonna have to cool down. And all that has to happen in an urban environment.

 

And that will affect total accumulations. That’s all I’m saying.

 

 

 

 

It's good official measurements are not taken on blacktop with a subway system below

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

I never said it wasnt.

I said temps would be marginal to start. 

 

And here is a newsflash for those reinventing the wheel: 38F at 10pm is a marginal for the start of a snow storm

 

 

The dewpoint is 12. There will be no problem with snow fall on a colder surface once the steadier snow arrives.

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Wow. Temp has risen here 2 degrees in last hour. Now 28. Interesting?

It's nothing probably radiaiting off the lowering clouds

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Biggest issue might be speed of storm, the accumulating snow is likely over by sunrise with only flurries after that.

Probably won't take long for the park to drop below freezing. Not sure about blacktop in Manhattan. I'm sure there will be "roads covered" posts galore.

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Called this situation this afternoon. Marginal temps in city

I disagree. Temp is 37 now with a dewpoint of 12. When it starts precipitating temperature will drop to freezing and then should drop a bit more through the early morning.

10 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Central Park is 38 at 8pm.  EWR was the only 40 at 8pm

The dewpoint is 10 too. Ideal wet bulb cooking conditions

Just now, MJO812 said:

Maybe the main band has shifted really far north.  This is much further north. 

No it did not looking at its simulated radar. 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Makes no sense why N PA has more snow on this map then areas near the strongest frontogenesis