• Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by andyhb

  1. Look on the ensembles heading into March would suggest the potential for a warmer/wet period, with the possibility of severe wx somewhere, particularly east of the Plains. Again, this is tied to the retrograding longwave pattern across North America and the Eastern Pacific.


    Can be seen here in the 12z EPS mean, watch the behavior of the ridging that generally starts over the eastern Pacific, whose retrogression eventually leads to the jet dropping into the Pacific NW.

    • Like 5

  2. 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

    My response to your WxBell Kuchera issue response lol: Oh yeah agree, maybe they liked the publicity with those going viral on Twitter? Was probably a begrudging change made more urgent because Pivotal came out with Kuchera maps for the Euro.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    You mean Joe Bastardi and Ryan Maue (original creator of the graphics) would seek all the attention they can get?

    Surely you can’t be serious!

    (I am serious, and don’t call me Shirley)

    • Like 5
    • Haha 5

  3. Looking like the real deal folks.

    Setups like this with amplifying waves coming immediately in behind a PV lobe pushing a strong Arctic high into the Plains (and therefore not needing to worry about Ptype issues around here or even in TX) are exceedingly rare. The first storm next week is one thing (and obviously there is bust potential from dry slots/lack of moisture initially/exact track/suppression due to the Arctic air mass, etc.), but the real wild card is if it can be doubled up with the wave on its heels, which seems to be an increasingly possible scenario.

    Does remind me a bit of the cold snap and back to back storms in Feb 2011. Regardless, the answer to the question in the thread/topic description should be a resounding yes.

    • Like 4

  4. Curious to see the exact periods of projected tornado events there. I have some disagreements with doing that, namely all of the things that could go wrong that can't be forecasted on the sub-seasonal/seasonal timescale. Are these periods just when "western trough/eastern ridge" is expected?

    • Like 1

  5. Track notwithstanding, powerful trough/jet streak + good moisture transport + cold air dumping in behind = potential for a blockbuster storm should the trough ejection go properly here (00z UK is an example of how that can be screwed up). 00z parallel GFS was dumping some stupid numbers over NE and IA.

    Edit: 00z Euro also an example of how the ejection can get screwed up.

    • Like 1

  6. 13 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

    Let's keep the complaining about who can top how bad your season has been so far and who's had it worst in the Banter thread and the good meteorlogical analysis and model discussion in here.

    Lol @ McHenrySnow reacting with a weenie emoji to this. You're not acting like a degreed meteorologist, man.

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
    • Weenie 1

  7. 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

    For the big trough later next week, concerned that it'll be tough to avoid any rain with that setup. The until that point persistent west based NAO block is progged to rotate eastward, which would enable a larger height spike ahead of the deep western trough. There being plenty of time to get to a better outcome is the fortunate part of this and the GFS shows one possible way out.

    It's been a while since I peeked at the long range with the more active pattern of late. No complaints in what they're showing, with solid agreement in a -EPO with much better cold, another plunge of the PNA, and continued -AO/-NAO. The NAO block is forecast to trend from west based to over or just east of Greenland. Meanwhile the MJO is forecast to go into phase 7 with enough amplitude to eventually go into phase 8. The phase 7 composite looks like the canonical Nina base state with southeast ridging.So with the other favorable teleconnection industries, that pattern could be wintry and active if it works out.

    That trough/pattern in late March/April for lack of a better term... yikes. :twister:

    • Like 2

  8. 2 hours ago, kayman said:

    I agree that maybe those areas of the Upland South should be included such as Birmingham, Atlanta.  We could rename the subforum could be renamed "Tennessee Valley and Upland South".  These areas are typically undeserved by the Southeastern subforum.

    Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians.

    • Like 2

  9. image.thumb.png.e406ec788bb1a6ae94bcd37fdb044207.png

    Did some skimming of SSTA data tonight and I'm intrigued by that warm pool centered at ~150˚W and 30˚S to the south of the cold SSTAs with the Nina. Based on looking into some previous analogs around this time, it seems like that strong meridional dipole is not present in years such as 2006, 2009, 2012, 2017, and 2018 (generally quieter severe seasons especially late season). It is more prevalent in several big Nina springs though, including 1974, 1976, and 2011.

    It's probably to some degree why this CDAS-derived SSTA analog product from Tropical Tidbits is essentially grouping a who's who of Nina springs with a lot of tornadoes/severe weather, including some with very large outbreaks.


    You can see the SSTA dipole present in the Southern Hemisphere in the mean here.

    • Like 2

  10. Quote

    "It is like atmospheric magic. A meteorologist could not have co-located everything at once at the same time over one area. Tanking mid level heights with the incoming PV max, the most divergent portion of that upper jet coupling, strong 600-800 frontal forcing, strong low level moist theta-e advection into the frontal circulation, and extreme convergence into the low level cyclone. I am thinking this is going to be ripping heavy TSSN over N IL like nothing before."

    This quote from TSSN12's sig via baro from GHD I.

    • Like 3

  11. 9 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

    I’m really over your constant harassment. 

    8 minutes ago, mimillman said:

    I’m not harassing you, I’m disagreeing with you. If you’re going to continue to post unsubstantiated garbage, expect the disagreement to continue.

    2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

    Nothing I said was unsubstantiated. 

    Can you both take your crap to DMs?

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1