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Posts posted by andyhb

  1. image.thumb.png.9a25f94d8fd39e21c726600db3fea3e6.png

    Looks like trades are fixing to ramp up again following a general lull at the beginning of November, but it also looks like the Nina standing wave might re-establish a bit westward of where it was previously. More cooling of the western regions as opposed to the eastern regions?

  2. image.thumb.png.a574cbc4d230965e4011189f93a1ce78.png

    Noticeable deepening the cold pool has taken place over the course of past couple of months thanks to the Nina standing wave. Looks to be some weakening over the next week or so in the standing wave, but the trade surge currently east of the dateline and propagating westward should help in cooling Nino 4 a bit more.


  3. 2D442DB1-286C-4CFB-9974-9742598BCEC8.thumb.jpeg.6b67a04fd42be73e8e831c9ef559fc36.jpeg

    Strong/persistent Niña standing wave now and that NMME mean is impressive. Should probably note the rapid decay of the Niña in the new year might be problematic if it decays from east to west. A couple of previous studies have identified a link between a positive state of the Trans Nino Index (TNI), with colder waters in Nino 4 versus 1.2, and increased potential for tornado outbreaks especially east of the Plains in spring.

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  4. 10 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

    Yeah I was looking at that yesterday it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility. Do you know what may be causing the NOAA/NASA/BoM models to go stronger? Wasn't sure if it was a model bias of some sort. One thought of mine is that those models in particular have a stronger area of suppression over the central Pacific resulting in stronger easterlies?

    Your guess is as good as mine. I know the Euro tends to be a bit warm biased with ENSO and the CFS (NOAA) tends to be bullish with ENSO so I’d stake my claims somewhere in between. We haven’t had a Niña this well developed since probably 2010-2012.

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