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ErinInTheSky

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Everything posted by ErinInTheSky

  1. ErinInTheSky
    GEFS looks really good. Big jump up in snow means.
  2. ErinInTheSky
    Good run. Now if we can just nudge the snowfall max a little east
  3. ErinInTheSky
    GEFS still looks great. Half the runs give us 8+", 10 or so give us 12+"
  4. ErinInTheSky
    Rare events have weird distributions. That said, 6" of snow wasn't unusual 50+ years ago in Louisiana. The record snowfall there is 14" and every few years there would be a decent 6+" event in the middle and upper parts of the state where the 9" were recorded.
  5. ErinInTheSky
    I should have gone to sleep lol.
  6. ErinInTheSky
    This looks pretty different from the GFS, I'm switching between the two.
  7. ErinInTheSky
    I just logged on to see the GFS and... I... Yall. I... I've never seen this haha, not since I've moved here. I'm giddy. Please work out this way.
  8. ErinInTheSky
    Ah, I'm not super well versed on how freezing rain accumulates. I'm from Louisiana and have never experienced significant accums.
  9. ErinInTheSky
    Nobody mentioned but that first round has .5" of freezing rain through MD. .5" and above is defined as "crippling".
  10. ErinInTheSky
    This map sums up my winter experiences here since moving from Louisiana in 2016. Frame it and use it to teach future Mid-ATL climatology classes.
  11. ErinInTheSky
    Euro comes in with the last minute save to keep some of us from the ledge.
  12. ErinInTheSky
    Anyone talking about the zr threat from the GFS and somewhat from the Euro? It looks like 1/3" of freezing rain with that first thump.
  13. ErinInTheSky
    Honestly I could use a little dry weather to do some things outside. I'm tired of all this mud.
  14. ErinInTheSky
    I'm just glad we have something to track.
  15. ErinInTheSky
    GFS track is perfect, right? Don't these things always shift north? LOL.
  16. ErinInTheSky
    Woah!!! They are Star shaped!!
  17. ErinInTheSky
    Flizzard now in Germantown.
  18. ErinInTheSky
    Flurries in Germantown! I’ll take it! Only the second time I’ve ever had frozen precip on Xmas!!!
  19. ErinInTheSky
    So much rain in Germantown... things have got to be flooding.
  20. ErinInTheSky
    So there were definitely some slick spots but no, it was not closed at all hahaha. The rocks were mostly navigable. The sun had dried them up enough to where most didn't have any real ice or snow on them. It was dicey in a few spots but honestly, the bridge to the falls was more sketchy (completely ice slicked) than the dried out rocks.
  21. ErinInTheSky
    Had a beautiful hike in the remnants of the snow on the Billy Goat trail yesterday
  22. ErinInTheSky
    I'm trying to conceptualize this... is there a reason why negative busts are much more common than positive ones?
  23. ErinInTheSky
    That sounds incredible! I'm in the burbs in NW MoCo so I assume busting high is possible here. I often over-perform the forecasts, but usually only by an inch or so, mainly due to microclimate. But I have yet to get a 2-4" event last minute warp to a 6-12".
  24. ErinInTheSky
    So this last storm was nice, fun, etc. But I've been here now for I think what, 4 winters now, and it seems like every time we get models showing 12+" of snow, it gets cut down to 3-6" last minute. So my question: Does it ever work the other way around? All the models showing 3-6" of snow in the DC area and instead, we get 12" after a last 48 hours model flip?
  25. ErinInTheSky
    A few tiny flakes in Germantown
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