ErinInTheSky

“Mankind’s greatest failure is it’s inability to understand the exponential function.” - Prof Albert Bartlett Every country, ours included, thought it couldn’t get that bad. Well almost every country. Singapore, South Korea, Japan all were on top of their stuff and stockpiled.

We’ll see. As of right now we are easily heading towards a few hundred thousand deaths, loss of icu capacity, and the highest per capita infection of any country if trends continue. I mean... we aren’t all shut down for nothing, and we’re going to be this way for a long time while many people die.

I’m not so sure of that. Let’s hope we don’t but we are still running behind Europe. They hit their vent capacities and their rates shot up. Some states are already seeing pretty high mortality rates, including my home state of Louisiana.

So the US is about to run out of drugs required to run ventilators. https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826961777/u-s-may-get-more-ventilators-but-run-out-of-medicine-for-covid-19-patients

Mortality rates are kind of useless to speculate over at this point. This is not a rate problem but a capacity problem. Even a novel flu with a mortality rate of .1% can strain the health care system. A coronavirus with no immunity and a mortality rate of 0.6-0.7% (true, infection based) is catastrophic. On top of that, once the medical system is adequately wrecked, the mortality rate shoots up. When ventilators no longer are available, more people die. Right now on a daily basis, COVID is the 3rd largest killer. In the next few days on a daily basis, it will be the largest, surpassing heart disease in this country: https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-no-3-cause-death-us-after-heart-disease-cancer-1495506 On top of all of this is the chemotherapy being delayed, the drug supply shortages, the less and less ICU capacity to handle strokes and heart attacks, etc. Quibbling over death rates Being 0.7 or 3.4 in a pandemic is next to useless - when all is said and done we will be able to look back and calculate it properly.

US. Going to be the deadliest day by far. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

1315 deaths and climbing today. It's going to be bad.

We'll be more prepared next time, I truly believe that. Testing will be there enough to contact trace properly.

The biggest barrier to a vaccine is safety. If safety "red tape" gets cut, I'm not taking the vaccine. Vaccines are safe because they go through massive clinical trials. A rushed vaccine can absolutely have negative consequences, and has had negative consequences in the past with other vaccines that didn't go through extensive testing. That + mass production is definitely the barrier to it getting in in under a year.

I don't doubt for a second we'll surpass all of those.

Just to add, what it does NOT mean is that we are even close to "beating this", rather we are heading towards achieving a pause in the explosive growth phase and stabilizing our cases/day.

There's a lot to be hopeful with this chart. Log charts allow you to see if exponential growth is occurring. The exponential phase has decelerated tremendously. That's an absolute result of measures that have been taken in the last few weeks, and expected. However, it doesn't mean that growth isn't occurring. Rather, that growth isn't as fast, percentage wise, as it was earlier in this disease. It's a good thing. If the curve flattens the way it looks above, it's going to take us a while to get to 1,000,000 cases.

Because we all need some good COVID news, it appears the curve is actually flattening on a log chart over the last 6 days nationwide. This bodes well and shows that staying at home works.

Florida's stay at home order excludes churches, and excludes local municipalities doing any tougher restrictions of their own. Florida's gonna make New York's numbers look like rookie numbers.

I think there will be a sizeable portion of people who _want_ to return to business as usual, but I think business as usual will be hard to achieve until we collectively feel safe and we reestablish social norms after being stuck in isolation for so long.

Exactly. Like can you even imagine going in a crowded restaurant right now?

I kind of wonder how we will collectively be psychologically after this. Like, are we going to be collectively traumatized, nervous to go outside and interact with others? You see it in Wuhan, which has opened up but people are staying inside.

New York City no longer accepting patients that are pulseless at the scene. https://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/961091?section=us&keywords=newyork-nyc-emt-virus&year=2020&month=04&date=02&id=961091&oref=www.reddit.com

Today is looking bad. Morning update states are mostly in. 22k cases - 700 deaths already. We're heading for a 30k+ cases, 1.2-1.3k death day. Still growing exponentially. Louisiana looks terrible. Maryland has actually be pretty good compared to most states.

Given that there are a lot of fake/false news on the tests out there right now, I'm trying to focus on verifiable sites. It's pretty clear that the WHO test (not the chinese one) worked in several countries, and by not adopting mass early testing and instead opting for a bunk test that, face it, allowed an American company to profit instead of a european one, we failed miserably. A Harvard team is working on this issue right now, showing how many deaths would have been prevented by mass early testing. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/490534-harvard-expert-we-clearly-would-have-had-a-very-different-situation When all is said and done, the United States failures will lead to us having the most deaths and cases per capita out of any developed nation. Mark my words. We're already well on our way.

I mean I know 6 months sounds like a long time but we're kind of heading that direction regardless. By the way, the 40% false negative/positive thing was NOT the WHO test, it was one shitty test that China was using. See here: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/biden-trump-wrong-about-who-coronavirus-tests/ “The test has been validated in three external laboratories, adapted by WHO and manufactured in line with international quality standards,” a WHO spokesperson said. “It has shown consistently good performance in laboratory and clinical use, and neither a significant number of false-positive nor false-negative results have been reported.” The White House and the vice president’s office did not respond to our requests for comment or clarification. But Birx told the New York Times that the test she alluded to with a 47 to 50% false positive rate was not the WHO test, but rather a diagnostic used in China."

China gets a good bit of blame, for sure, but China didn't make us keep our beaches open with spring breakers a week and a half ago, didn't tell us to pretend masks don't work, didn't keep our stockpile of supplies dwindled, didn't wait until there were 1,000 cases to close schools for us, etc. China didn't make us reject the international tests for our own bunk failed POS gold plated test. They get the blame for starting it, but we only have ourselves to blame for it getting as bad as it is right now.

So... for those of you with more experience than me... how long does the ground stay white after 11.5” of snow?

Oh my god guys, I have a pile of snow that is 3' high from shoveling. My son now has a tiny shovel that a neighbor gave me. I really got to meet all of my neighbors who helped a clueless person like me figure out how to deal with all the snow. This is great. Bonus pictures! 11.5" was my final snowfall amount. SNOW IS AWESOME!

Got it up here in the outskirts of Germantown too. One storm I got as much snow as I did last winter lol.