ErinInTheSky

Masks shouldn't be controversial at all. Every place that's ever gotten this under control has had widespread mask adoption.

I think the most important thing to realize is... the disease spreads through the gathering of people. The more you can reduce the gathering of people, the more you'll reduce the spread. Pictures like that show exactly how new infections can still take place right now, and it wouldn't surprise me to discover that people that are going to the beaches are going to come down with it 1-2 weeks from now. Not worth the risk IMO. I saw a hiking trail packed with people today, it would have been impossible to social distance. People breathing all over as they pass you by without masks. I turned around and went to a lighter populated trail. This level of congregation is irresponsible IMO.

That's the bigger problem. A lot of people don't realize... all these people have to use the bathroom somewhere. Water fountains, passing by each other without 6 feet of distance on piers, not wearing masks, going to the same stores beforehand nearby to purchase supplies, kids playing with other kids, picking things up that strangers drop. And let's not forget just the simple act of gathering people who haven't hung out to "go hang out for a beach day", so even a lot of these individual groups may be people from different households congregating.

THAT picture is clearly a risk... Remember one of the biggest clusters came from spring break travelers.

Hiking was nice, and I did a little cooking today. I've taken up catching up on MCU movies this week.

That's with current measures being maintained too. States reopening make me think that 100-200k death is still well within likelihood.

Good info but there are caveats - China's COVID transmission happened in winter, so you wouldn't expect many outdoor outbreaks.

Hikes, walking, etc are specifically mentioned as exceptions in the stay at home order, so I can see why people are doing it - it's allowed under the rules. But god they have to learn to wear masks and not congregate. There was NO social distancing at the first hiking trail I pulled up to, hence why I left it.

Yeah... don’t go to Annapolis Rock trail in Frederick. I did find that the Weverton Cliffs trail was very isolated though with gorgeous views of the Potomac.

I went to hike my favorite trail thinking I could socially distance. The trailhead is more packed than I’ve ever seen, worse than the Florida beaches. I noped out and am going to a quieter trail.

"The primary gating benchmarks for Maryland are: first, the current hospitalization rate (including the current ICU bed usage rate) for COVID patients; and, second, the number of daily COVID deaths. Deaths are a lagging indicator, so the State’s primary gating metric for this recovery roadmap is the current COVID hospitalization rate. The rate of COVID patients occupying beds is currently our most accurate measure of our ability to slow the spread of this deadly disease in Maryland. However, once testing in the state becomes truly robust, new case rates could also become an effective gating metric in Maryland." https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/MD_Strong.pdf

Going hiking today. I know a few trails where I’ll likely not see another soul.

Absolutely.

Owch on the new MD cases. Virginia too. Waiting for updates on deaths.

Yeah. I think we will absolutely see a spike in a couple weeks.

Yeah even though case numbers are going up, what we learned from New York is that positive case numbers are essentially meaningless. More important is positive percentage.

Oof that's a lot of Germantown area hospitals. Crap that's my neck of the woods.

I will consider us recovered and back to work in Maryland when my trip to Winchester weekly during rush hour takes 2 and a half hours again. I can make it in an hour 20 during rush now haha.

Actually the reopening plan seems really good. He says in there that childcare facilities will be examined in phase 2, not phase 1. Phase 2 will be difficult to get to unless phase 1 succeeds. This also says we probably aren’t going to have widespread people working until June given the lack of child care centers.

Good to see. I haven’t had much struggle getting the items I want from Wegmans via Instacart, I’m not lacking for food at all.

While I agree with the thought, I think that when states begin to allow reopening and employers demand employees to go back to work, people won't be left with much of a choice.

] These are great.

I think that is kind of factored in in "how much economic activity returns". But you're right.

Today Georgia reopens. Things to watch: - How much economic activity returns - How much infection rates change in 2 and a half weeks (circle May 12)

Depends on R0. If it's in the 1.2-2.2 range, 60%. If it's in that 5+ range, 85%. Probably somewhere in the middle but at this point it doesn't make a difference, point is it would be much much much worse than it is right now.