buckeye

all obvious caveats aside.... time of year, geography, and lead time.... ...there's a pretty impressive signal from the euro and gfs ensembles of an OV threat day 10. Notable because of the agreement across models this far out.

So wxbell revised their winter forecast to go slightly colder in Dec and significantly colder in Feb. Main reasoning is an almost exact match to 2013/14, (I can literally hear the drool hitting the floor in here), and 2002/03 SST. Of course the chaos factor always seems to b*tch slap down even the best matching analogs. Winter forecasts are all over the place this year. Usually you have a common thread with a few outliers, but this year I've seen forecasts that are total opposites of each other, (especially in month to month breakdowns). Should be interesting to see the winners and losers come April.

Agree, it's actually a pretty close to normal call for our area. This winter is looking pretty run of the mill. Would be nice to get one blockbuster event with a long lead up....something us folks in central ohio have not had in several winters. Otherwise it will end up in the overflowing file of forgotten winters.

Don has always done a nice job. I think last winter was his first bad bust since reading his winter outlooks over the years. In fairness lots of Mets went way too bullish last year with all the "winter of yore" calls. You never know, but I personally wouldn't bet on Don busting 2 in a row.

so I had to check out the source, I couldn't help myself....after all we have a blizzard warning about once in 10 years around here....so several in one winter would be quite the feat. lol His reasoning for the Big Blizzard area is based on his expection for frequent deepening low pressure areas off the new england coast due to unusually warm water in the northeast....(yes because we all know that's the classic textbook setup for big blizzards in Ohio and IN). I hope this guy isn't actually a meterologist.

Amen... I checked and the 6z gfs has our first peek at Thanksgiving day and we're close to 60 degrees

Looks like a couple inches... Amazing similarities almost exactly 5 years ago to the day. So since everyone loves analogs, what was winter 14'-15' like?

someone needs to fix the lock... ...it doesn't seem to want to hold for very long. Oh well, it's about to lock-in again here in a few hours.

I don't know what it is about winters lately, but good ole fashioned cold and snowy Decembers are about as rare as a triple phaser anymore. Same thing with winters that end when they're suppose to rather than dragging into fricken April and May.

Yesterday when locals were calling for 1-2" today I was scratching my head wondering what model showed that...other than the nam of course. Next week is reminding me of that mid November outbreak...(I think it was '14 or '13...I'm terrible with recalling years), but I remember driving to an appointment in the evening out in the country and it was in the low teens, with low visibility from snow blowing across the road. These shots this time of year are not unheard of....but still too damn early IMHO lol. edit: Actually it was Nov. 13, 2014....just looked back on my calendar

Personal opinion , (and I'm sure not very popular here), but too early for this stuff. I know there are some exceptions but doesn't a colder and snowier November pattern usually get followed by a mild and dry December?

....more like a glance than a lock.

....another banner model season ahead

Interesting model test to see what actually evolves. In the past couple of seasons how many deepening sub 990 lows for the lakes and OV were modeled this far out only to go from thump to real time dud.

yes, definitely no wx zzzzz's around Halloween . From high of 70 on the 31st to low of 30 on the 1st. Lots of rain across the OV over the next 10 days too.

'92?

Damn.... sorry guys I didn't see the other thread started by IWXwx scary part was I even looked you can delete or whatever....

So I re-activated my wxbell subscription... have to say the new model graphics are much improved....very nice!

gotcha

assuming you don't mean cold air damming.... if so, I'm intrigued, what is the 'other' CAD?

Amazing times we live in. I've used that smiley dozens of times in the years I've posted here and just like all those other times it's never been meant literally....just a way to illustrate a smart*** remark/action, (ie hoisting a maga flag in the epicenter of the democrats campaign stop). But unfortunately you're right, people take that stuff totally different now. Lol...I never even remotely thought of that post the way you did until I read your reply. I guess I'm just not 'woke' enough...or twisted enough. In fact now that you bring it up, I'm kind of surprised it's still an available emoji.

in non-weather news....from the little sleepy town of Westerville.... I can see the building where the dem debate is being held from my upstairs windows. ....should I hoist a MAGA flag?

Yep. She graduated this past spring. Working in Columbus now. Agree...campus is very nice.

...too many jokes about his daughter has finally taken it's toll. Good to see you back pondo. Hopefully we'll have something to discuss this winter other than the latest local met scandals and deaths.

gotta admit, I'm kinda jealous of the folks in the 'wet & wild' zone. Also, what's happening in IL and IN? Are they wet & wild too? Figures we'd get donut-holed out of the fun.