kayman

This is thing is likely on the ground

The Crittenden County, AR supercell is very ominous and likely on the ground. I'm looking at the NWS MEG radar velocity and it's extremely tight as it is headed towards West Memphis, AR.

Yep, and this is basically a line of tornadic supercells. Anyone from Downtown Memphis and northward along the Mississippi River might need to be prepared for one of those supercells.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 714 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ARC077-123-030045- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-250403T0045Z/ Lee AR-St. Francis AR- 714 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL LEE AND CENTRAL ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES... At 714 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Haynes, or 7 miles south of Forrest City, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Whitmore, Madison, Gill, Bonair, Cottonwood Corner, Crow Creek, Caldwell, Forrest City, New Castle, Four Forks, Burnt Cane, Palestine, Haynes, Round Pond, Widener, Blackfish, Colt, Dodsons Corner, Heustess, and New Home. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3515 9080 3515 9076 3502 9045 3484 9084 3490 9095 3502 9090 TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 227DEG 40KT 3491 9079 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN $$ Schlessiger

In Northeastern AR, there is a bit of training by the those confirmed tornadic supercells. It's so many confirmed Tornado Warnings for that area that it is nearly impossible to discern the difference between 5 different warnings.

This one is headed for Crittenden County, AR on the west side of the Memphis metro area. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 657 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ARC035-077-123-030045- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-250403T0045Z/ Lee AR-St. Francis AR-Crittenden AR- 657 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR LEE...ST. FRANCIS AND SOUTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTIES... At 656 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Moro, or 12 miles west of Marianna, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Garret Grove, Cody, Hughes, Cottonwood Corner, New Castle, Soudan, Round Pond, Beck, Brickeys, Ball Point, Tongin, Raggio, Gill, Hawkins, Mississippi River State Park, Penjur, Four Forks, Burnt Cane, Colt, and Dodsons Corner. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3487 9110 3515 9090 3515 9076 3494 9028 3485 9043 3489 9044 3489 9048 3486 9048 3483 9046 3465 9105 3473 9105 3474 9110 TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 227DEG 40KT 3475 9099 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$ Schlessiger

WMC-TV apparently has this live on air from an AR DOT traffic camera live on TV. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ARC037-123-030015- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0052.000000T0000Z-250403T0015Z/ St. Francis AR-Cross AR- 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL ST. FRANCIS AND CENTRAL CROSS COUNTIES... At 654 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Vanndale, or 8 miles northwest of Wynne, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Wynne, Hawkins, Horton, Rosenbaum, River Front, Fitzgerald Crossing, Crow Creek, Caldwell, Wittsburg, Village Creek State Park, McElroy, Vanndale, Mersman, Colt, Fair Field, Cherry Valley, Ellis Chapel, Levesque, Hamlin, and Princedale. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3511 9098 3528 9092 3544 9095 3545 9074 3519 9057 3503 9089 TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 219DEG 51KT 3534 9085 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN $$ MJ

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ARC031-093-MOC069-155-030045- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0055.000000T0000Z-250403T0045Z/ Craighead AR-Mississippi AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO- 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MONETTE... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES... At 650 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Monette, moving northeast at 40 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for MONETTE. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar and spotter confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Jolliff Store, West Hermondale, Paulding, Delfore, Calumet, Dearman, New Survey, Vail, Denton, Gobler, Carmi, Covington, Whisp, Buckeye, Lester, Caruth, Deer Land, Arkmo, Temples Corner, and Caraway. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3622 8992 3593 8972 3574 9038 3590 9054 TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 234DEG 36KT 3589 9036 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$ CAD

Brandon Copic Brandon Copic is following the Lake City, AR supercell It's a very large tornado.

Yeah, the language used by the NWS MEG (Memphis) office is scary af: Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 640 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ARC031-093-111-MOC069-155-030045- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0055.000000T0000Z-250403T0045Z/ Craighead AR-Poinsett AR-Mississippi AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO- 640 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LAKE CITY AR... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR EASTERN CRAIGHEAD...NORTH CENTRAL POINSETT...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES... At 639 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Lake City, moving northeast at 40 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Lake City AR. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Jolliff Store, West Hermondale, Paulding, Delfore, Calumet, Dearman, New Survey, Vail, Denton, Gobler, Carmi, Covington, Gum Point, Whisp, Buckeye, Lester, Deer Land, Arkmo, Temples Corner, and Caraway. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3622 8992 3593 8972 3565 9052 3583 9066 TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 233DEG 36KT 3580 9049 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$ cad

If this brigade of tornadic supercells in Eastern Arkansas holds together West Tennessee is in some serious trouble in the next 2-3 hours. Mesoscale Discussion 363 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 0363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South Concerning...Tornado Watch 98... Valid 022312Z - 030045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...Numerous discrete supercells are intensifying in a very favorable environment for strong to intense tornadoes across the Mid-South. DISCUSSION...Numerous discrete right-moving supercells are intensifying across the open warm sector in the Mid-South as of 23Z. The NQA VWP depicts very large, clockwise-curved hodographs with ample streamwise vorticity for these storms (around 330 m2/s2 0-500m SRH). Given a moist/unstable boundary layer, ample low-level shear, and the well-established discrete supercells, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible through this corridor over the next couple hours. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34009085 34259159 34699169 35159159 36289066 36499019 36468975 36348926 36078903 35798902 34179016 34009085 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

More damage from Talladega County https://x.com/spann/status/1901113018420764856?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1901113018420764856|twgr^|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=

https://x.com/SkyTrevorBWX/status/1901081896223654399 Calera (AL) tornado damage

There has been several tornadoes spun and damaage from Walker, Shelby, Chilton, and now Talladega counties in the Birmingham area

My family members are in northern Talladega County and they had taken shelter already right now. They are going back into shelter again with the Talladega County TDS supercell.

The Calera PD has confirmed there was damage near the Shelby County Airport which is where the BMX NWS forecast office is located in Calera. It is confirmed from the BMX TOG/TDS supercell. UPDATE: the Calera PD had confirmed it hit an RV park along US 31 & I-65.

A Mesoscale Discussion involving northern and western MS through early morning hours Mesoscale Discussion 0187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...southern Arkansas...far northern Louisiana...and into northern and western Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 36...38... Valid 150439Z - 150615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 36, 38 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk is evolving across portions of southern Arkansas, far northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of supercells moving eastward across Arkansas at this time, several with ongoing/strong circulations evident. The southern portion of this band -- over southern Arkansas -- will continue moving eastward across northwestern portions of Tornado Watch 38. Meanwhile farther east, a supercell is crossing southern Leflore County in west-central Mississippi, which is also exhibiting low-level rotation. Meanwhile, other/weaker convection is evolving south of this storm, where CAMs suggest potential for an increase in severe-storm potential over the next couple of hours. Given the favorable environment (both kinematically and thermodynamically), expect risk to continue across portions of WW 38 for several hours across this region. ..Goss.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33949290 34289258 34438971 34068862 33138940 32058982 32109123 33269371 33949290

It is already started in MS Tornado Warning Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 MSC015-051-053-083-133-150515- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-250315T0515Z/ Sunflower MS-Holmes MS-Carroll MS-Leflore MS-Humphreys MS- 1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER...NORTHWESTERN HOLMES...WEST CENTRAL CARROLL...LEFLORE AND NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES... At 1122 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Swiftown, or 10 miles north of Belzoni, moving northeast at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Morgan City, Moorhead, Quito, and Itta Bena around 1130 PM CDT. Greenwood around 1140 PM CDT. Schlater around 1150 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3341 8994 3318 9049 3328 9062 3371 9035 TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 220DEG 38KT 3333 9049 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN $$ 86

AL & MS bounced around subforums but they are here. As a native, I can say AL is a Southeastern state for sure.

Speak for yourself. My immediate family members including my parents live in the Greater Birmingham area of Central Alabama. I am legitimately concerned for them. This forum and thread cover the entire Southeast from MS, AL, GA, FL, Southern VA, SC, NC and not just your area. Please read the room and have some sense of respect for those of us concerned about the possible severe weather outbreak threat across the Southeast.

You might be underestimating the helicity and hodograph forecast for wind shear for Sunday at and east of the Metro Charlotte area. The wind shear will be there. That is why I have a feeling that an enhanced risk for severe weather outlook might be coming for just east of Charlotte for Central NC and Northeast SC on Sunday morning and midday. Sunshine isn't always needed for severe weather if the other ingredients such as wind shear, moisture, and latent heating is already present.

James Spann of WBMA (ABC 33/40)/Birmingham has updated the outlook for Greater Birmingham along with all of Central Alabama. https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=276258 It is very disturbing and very ominous of a volatile event for South/southwestern MS, most of Alabama, the north and western 2/3rds of Georgia tomorrow through Sunday morning.

I'm going to go out on a limb but the SPC forecast for Sunday will yield an Enhanced risk area from a north to south area from Suffolk, VA to Sumter, SC.