BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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Pack, it snows in MBY for 30 hours. Kinda blows my mind. -
Yeah, GSP has noted that several times.
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IF the RGEM is right about surface temps and we dont have to battle off a warm layer at the surface to start, then it's obviously off to the races with how significant this event could be.
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The 12z RGEM is a whopping seven degrees colder at the surface than the NAM at 48.
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SREF went up last run too.
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I don’t know I can remember a trail of snow accumulation from Brownsville to the Jersey Shore.
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I think this is probably where we talk about how god awful the GFS has been.
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Man, imagine you live somewhere like Rockport, TX. It got wiped off the map, practically, and this run almost brings snow to the Texas shore.
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I'd agree with that.
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I think it's going to be a good run through 57.
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The last significant snow before, say, mid month here would have been back in 2002.
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Might need to make the trip to McAdenville on Friday.
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I've been wondering how 11/19/2000 works out as an analog to this. I need to look into it. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCLT/2000/11/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=
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That's a concern, in my opinion, for RDU if they lose nucleation.
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The sounding for the RDU airport at 84 is concerning because it isnt necessarily above freezing, you dont reach -15C until you get above the 500MB layer. It's hard to grow snowflakes like that.
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We're safely isothermal in our sounding here but my biggest concern is the snow growth zone isnt saturated quite as deep as I'd like.
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I cant complain about a free resource but its almost 10:30 and we're still on 75.
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I think it probably snows most of the day on Friday but whatever moisture is left from Friday Night into Saturday has a good shot at sticking.
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Thanks! I usually use plymouth because of the immediacy but again, they only go out to 60.
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My usual site that I get soundings from, it wouldnt even be in range until tomorrow evening.
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There is definitely some sort of warm nose, I just dont know how thick it is.
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RDU does get to 0.7 at 850. 925's are below freezing though so I am not sure how deep that above freezing level would be.
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925s look okay.
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There's also some decent lift showing up over the Pee Dee of SC and Coastal Plain of NC.
