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About Radtechwxman
- Birthday 10/16/1988
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KPIA
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Peoria, IL
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Interests
Storm chasing and all kinds of severe weather :) but tornadoes are my favorite
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You're pushing it just a bit man. Far from a violent tornado signature. But definitely a damaging tornado at night which is still dangerous regardless.
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There's no confirmation and no current debris signature. Impressive cell though with strong rotation.
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Totally agree 100%. Last second moisture return esp in cold season always is a concern. Afraid moisture may be too shallow and can mix out easily like you said. It's too bad all winter we avoided big scouring cf's in Gulf overall but now that severe wx is upon us we are getting them. Ha. But as you said lapse rates will really help. Hodos have great low level curvature so wouldn't take much to produce tornadoes if storm mode avoids being too linear. I feel like wf will be very in play for your area.
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Euro definitely the most ominous solution of all the models. Lapse rates are good esp for this north and this time of year thanks to that EML. This def bears some similarities to 2-28-17 though for that event we had a well defined wf up this way. I like that sfc winds are south to even slightly backed. Shear isn't crazy but definitely sufficient with that cape profile. Definitely am still worried about cap holding till cf moves in. That dewpoint depression and/or dryline feature could help fire storms ahead of cf if there's enough convergence on it and cap can break. Good thing is storms would likely be discrete. Sfc low is strong but wish it was more compact and not stretched out. Definitely not a perfect setup but definitely one worth chasing.
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Did Someone Say Clipper(Hybrid)!?! 1/18-1/19
Radtechwxman replied to Frog Town's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The best banding for this definitely ended up pretty south. Some areas south of the wwa's may overperform. -
Did Someone Say Clipper(Hybrid)!?! 1/18-1/19
Radtechwxman replied to Frog Town's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Sounds about right. Lol. We had an uptrend in models now followed by a downtrend. By the looks of this, I was thinking it could be an overperformer. Guess not, ha. #2024 -
Did Someone Say Clipper(Hybrid)!?! 1/18-1/19
Radtechwxman replied to Frog Town's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Yeah 0z runs no beuno. Lol. Of course better I80 north. Shocker. They get the front wing of precip and just a glancing blow here. Was looking solid for 2-4in here but now probably an 1-1.5in at best. Is it Spring yet?