StormChaser4Life

The headlights across from you are me and my chase partner. I didn't even see a car across from us get impacted. I'm glad you're okay man. Could have been way worse.

This is my chase partner's video. Ha. I was driving while he filmed. It was bigger before it got into town. I was flying to get out of the massive hail though. Briefly took shelter under this little building on outskirts of Table Grove but then the RFD really punched in and I didn't feel safe where we where. We pulled back out on east road and all of a sudden I heard it and here comes a cloud of debris. It was a small albeit pretty robust circulation.

Up in DVN. I like that moisture looks to pool and have more depth near wf later. Not going to lie TP play west is very tempting out near DMX but afraid moisture may mix out bad there. But with such a strong low and wf nearby man. I do like that models continue to show development of storms in ne MO and track them up this way later. However, I am a bit worried they may just shoot north over wf and not turn right and take advantage of parameters.

That's why it's convecting earlier because of the extreme mixing occurring. Hopefully doesn't come to fruition. 3km nam convects in ne MO into se IA but later than it was showing before and it looks to struggle.

I thought the same thing. Might just be the HRRR being special. Just crazy that it's been so consistent then derails now. Definitely something to watch.

Latest hrrr runs aren't firing anything now till 0z and now only in Iowa. Lol

Hrrr definitely having major mixing issues tomorrow. Hoping that's overdone or kiss tornado threat goodbye. Dew points mix out terrible by late afternoon and RH just tanks.

Definitely worried about a cap bust. Timing of wave isn't super ideal and not sure we will get a lead wave like Fri. If not then storms will probably be tied mostly to cf and fire late. Would be a shame to waste this pristine environment. Of course naturally when I'm off and can chase get a strong cap with nothing to break it and on Friday had to work at 7pm so had to chase local and couldn't go to Iowa and it goes nuts. Never fails. Obviously not hoping for destruction like we saw Fri. Don't need anymore lives lost or homes damaged but give me a nice tornado out in a field please.

Surprised at the SPC outlook. It was tamer than I imagined. Talked about possible moisture issues which I find odd because dew points look better imo than compared to Friday's setup. However, if we get deep mixing could see some issues. They mentioned moisture depth could be shallower. Also mentioned capping concerns and absence of lift. I think there will be ample forcing to overcome that imo.

It's consistently taking a robust helicity track right through Peoria where I live. Storm mode definitely more discrete to semi discrete versus more clustered towards Iowa. Is this forming on a lead wave or just on the lead edge of the exit region of the jet? Seems like this first wave may be the more robust tornado threat with a potential 2nd round associated more with cf which looks more qlcs variety albeit still showed supercell characteristics and some broken quality to line.

That early day wave definitely bears watching. Cape, moisture, and sigtor all building in with it.

Other model guidance suggesting an early wave now. 01z hrrr has an expansive precip shield at end of its run. Definitely something that will need to be watched. Certainly would shunt the threat south where destabilization could possibly happen on southern fringe. This is just giving me 3-28-20 vibes. This is about the time models went from outbreak scenario to a total mess. Only time will tell.

23z hrrr showing an mcs developing in ne MO at end of its run. Oh boy. Getting 3-28-20 vibes from that run. Hopefully won't get an early day wave that messes everything up.

10z hrrr not as impressive from a reflectivity standpoint compared to earlier runs. It does develop discrete activity ahead of the line but it seems to really struggle to take off. Run to run differences at this point aren't shocking with models trying to figure out morning convection.

Well gfs showed me getting like 4-5in with today's system so I wouldn't trust it. Lol