StormChaser4Life

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About StormChaser4Life

  • Birthday 10/16/1988

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KPIA
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Peoria, IL
  • Interests
    Storm chasing and all kinds of severe weather :) but tornadoes are my favorite

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  1. I mean the fact these "supercells" in a 15 hatched barely have rotation and no lightning speaks for itself. So much shear, so little cape. It's just pushing over the updrafts. I saw Iowa managed to squeeze out a brief tube
  2. Thermos and lapse rates definitely killed our threat here. That morning wave was the nail in the coffin
  3. I think our fate was sealed after that late wave of morning to afternoon storms. Then that feed of showers and clouds continued all day, at least in IL. Moisture quality seemed to be less than what was forecasted. Just goes to show you how a few variables being off can totally change an otherwise potent tornado setup. That's Jonesboro storm was insane. That tornado looked just like Tuscaloosa. Curious to see what the environment was near that storm
  4. I'm definitely getting the bust vibe from this from a tornado outbreak standpoint. Too much shear and not enough cape. I think IL could see some severe storms later but how significant I'm unsure
  5. Yea these dew points are drastically lower than models depicted. I'm surprised. There was a good reservoir of mid to upper 60 dews in the lower mid Mississippi Valley last night. Really thought those would advect north quickly. I think the EML ended up being less robust and maybe some mixing near dry slot. IL has been in training showers and clouds all day. Dry slot is finally progressing east but not sure we will have enough time to recover much. Definitely wasn't expecting all this crapvection to persist so long
  6. I think hrrr may be overconvecting imo. It was way off on extent of elevated storms last night. This complex is MO is definitely the fly in the ointment. If more storms don't blow up besides that, I think this could still be a big day. That remains to be seen
  7. A prefrontal trough would certainly increase the tornado potential for this. Prevent a more linear storm mode near pacific front
  8. Don't think there will be any issue seeing mid to upper 60 dews in moderate risk area. 3km nam definitely highlights a potential fly in the ointment with convection persisting into the afternoon instead of clearing mid to late morning like HRRR
  9. 3km nam at other end of spectrum of hrrr. Multiple rounds of convection lasting into the afternoon. Would definitely temper the threat and likely shift it west and south
  10. 0z hrrr is verbatim high risk worthy. Those helicity tracks are mind boggling. I think cape/dews may be overdone a bit but regardless still looks to be a big day
  11. Yea that was my concern. Directional shear not as good west so storms could struggle till they got more east but would they get too messy before getting to the better environment? Plus MO is just not chasing friendly so definitely prefer the threat further east. I do agree HRRR is probably too fast but NAM seems too slow. 0z HRRR running now. Let the fun begin
  12. Definitely noticing that on the nams. My question is if that was right, would they start producing right away or further east? Winds are more backed east. Curious to see if hrrr caves towards that or holds firm
  13. No need for your sarcasm. Just saying given the parameters I am seeing and the potential I don't think they're hitting the tornado potential as hard as they should. Yes there is bust potential as with any setup but I can name more positive than negative aspects with this. These storms will be in some populated areas, more so than any setup so far this year and I just hope people understand the potential of this to produce strong to potentially violent tornadoes. I'm not saying I'm better than any NWS forecaster but I do think they been quite conservative and that concerns me.
  14. It's seriously embarrassing what ILX does. They always refer to SPC discussion. Like do your own analysis. DVN was uncharacteristically conservative. LOT great as always. Not sure what the other offices aren't seeing