Radtechwxman

45 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Peoria is well north of I-70 and I might have said Liquid/Frozen line vs. SLP to be more precise with my words. At that, you'd be golden. Hope you get the rare back-to-back storms.

I think areas from I70 north definitely have a good shot with this. Possibly I72 north depending on how much warm air this pulls up ahead of this. I already see snow maps and predictions making their rounds. Going to being a long week. Lol. And I agree with buckeye, would love to see a deep snowpack before one of these arctic dumps. Let's get that -32 on FV3 to verify ha

26 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

SLP gets up to at least I-70. That's my call and I'm sticking to it.

I hope not. Ha. Would love to cash in on back to back significant winter storms. It's been a long time. Getting almost a foot yesterday has me thirsty for more 

Do I dare say the B word is possible with this? def a very tight pressure gradient with incoming arctic high. This one looks to be followed by quite a cold blast to. And you make a good point about the snow pack being in the models a week. Didn't think of that. I know it is an overused concept. Just thought this one is a pretty large scale deep snow pack though

This one is going to be a nail biter. Lol. This system definitely looks to be more wound up and amped which could allow a more northerly track. However, with this deep snow pack in place, I wonder how much impact that baroclinic zone from the snow will have on the storm track

One would think that the large area of heavy snow put down yesterday and today will have impact on future storm track. I know there will be melting down by I70 but they got a lot of snow to melt. We got areas nearing or exceeding a foot up by I74. Our temps here don't get above 35 this week so not a ton of melting should occur. This leaves a large sw to ne oriented baroclinic zone for next weeks system. Which the storm track on GFS looks remarkably similar to this idea. Just one model though. Would be awesome to see back to back major winter storms only a week apart. This system will have much more wind with it

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You're going to end up with an artificially inflated total if you measure too often because it won't allow for settling/compaction.  You can measure every hour or whatever to see what kind of rates there are, but don't add those numbers together.  Generally speaking you want to do 6 hour measurements, though there are some exceptions... like if the snow ends right after your last measurement, you don't want to let it sit there for several hours before measuring.  

Thanks for that. Never was sure on how to properly do that. My first time using a board. Typically I look for something elevated that can't be influenced by ground warming. Like a grill. Or bird feeder. Or a plantar. Lots of reports of 9-10in in my area so sounds like my measurements should be close

13 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I'm enjoying this and trying not to pay attention to my 3 days of rain/snow mix P&C forecast next week lol.  Think we've lost forcing north of I70, hopefully southern In. can pull a last minute coup.

Yea the system is in the process of transferring to the coast. Passing on its energy. Precip losing its moxy now. I'm not getting my hopes up for next week because gfs did awful with this and it is the one slamming my area again. Euro has it suppressed way south. But I'm ecstatic with this storm. So can't complain 

Just now, Jackstraw said:

You still got the driveway, that's a big board lol.  I think technically you're supposed to measure every hour sweeping the board clean after you measure then add the totals.  Could be wrong.  I was lazy today and did mine every 3 hours roughly.

Yea I wasn't sure on the proper snow board protocol. Lol. I was checking every few hours. I may just check in morning to see final total. Got one more nice band moving through. This storm was a nice surprise for many. Kept creeping north and increasing totals. I got my eye on next weekend to. That would be great to get back to back significant winter storms

I had a board out to measure snow. Last measurement on that was 9" but my mom decided it was cool to brush it off while we were shoveling and snow blowing. Thanks mom. But it has been snowing nonstop. Still periods of moderate snow. So I'm thinking I will be over 10in. Will check later. Here's a pic of the driveway after one snowblower pass

Snow has been surprisingly fluffy here. Not too much water content. Temps remained colder. 29-30 pretty much all day. Have had periods of larger flakes within those mesoscale bands. Overall been moderate snow all day with periods of heavy. Looks like dry slot should stay just east of IL River 

This band near and north of 74 has been dumping nicely. Measured 5-6in here so far. The band is kind of oscillating around but still snowing at a decent clip. Hrrr/rap showing an additional 5-7in. Hope that's right and I will have my first double digit snow in years! 

20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

You worry too much. Enjoy the 6"+

Well after being burned many many times here it is hard not to man. Lol. But thanks for the positive reinforcement. The expanse of this system is pretty incredible. Been a while since we seen a snow swath like this. Hope you guys up north fair out better than forecasted. RAP gives you hope!

Kind of a lull in Peoria atm. Not much falling. Could be residual dry air trying to saturate. These bands seem to be weakening some as they approach. Hopefully it kicks up later

Where you guys seeing these updates??

Eagerly waiting on this heavier band. It is crawling. Lol 

Got my first flakes here in Peoria. Waiting on this strong lead band just to my south

7 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

Snow is really coming down here started about 10mins ago

Yea that band has some nice returns. And it isn't in a hurry. Dry air helping with that. Lol

My buddy in Macomb just said it is snowing there nicely now. That band looks nice. And it is hardly moving. Park over me please and thank you

That was a strange nam run. Has a big trench of lower totals digging down into my area naturally. But meteorologically makes no sense

I think it is because these bands barely move and just sit dumping snow. Not sure the rates will be super intense but will have at least a long duration of light to moderate snow. Hrrr has that deformation band setup just to my south tomorrow. Hoping that can inch north

You can really see the snow band fighting the dry air. Struggling to move north. Definitely nervous. Been burned here many times by models underestimating the power of dry air. Band is moving more west to east atm but that should change later as the air saturates more. RH sitting at 78% here

4 hours ago, Central Illinois said:

ILX just extended the WSW includes Bloomington/Peoria areas now! they upped the totals 5-8" now

I was pleasantly surprised. Only thing I'm unsure up here is if those nice banding features will be present. But good thing is snow falls overnight when ratios will be slightly better. I def stand a much better chance with this storm than the Nov blizzard

53 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think 3-4" still looks good here.  Being so far north of the storm track, it's tempting to think ratios would be very good, but an inspection of soundings shows that the better lift really doesn't line up very well with the DGZ at least around here.  I suspect flake size may not be that good most of the time, though could improve for brief periods.

Yea that's my concern. They aren't lining up well. So may be dealing with pixie dust. But should have periods of better flake size. Hopefully. Lol

2 hours ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Is HRRR trustworthy that far out yet?

Typically no. Esp the longer range hrrr at 12z, 0z, 06z. That's the very end of it's range

54 minutes ago, eureka22 said:

WSW criteria are 6 inches in 12 hours OR 8 inches in 24 hours.  My point and click shows the main activity (6.2") over an 18 hour period with the highest 12 hour total 3.8".  It doesn't meet either requirement.  A random click in Peoria shows a similar result.

Yea but areas south really aren't going to see a different timing then us. Esp by I72. Hence my confusion