Radtechwxman

Just now, janetjanet998 said:

It has been been there for two days in some of the models....I have have seen it happen many times so I wouldn't LOL too much

I foresee  a moderate band of mod-heavy snow with a sharp south cut off drifting north starting at I-80 then stalling north of  I-88..meanwhile precip will blossom south of us...and it will struggle to fill the gap this far north..and when it does it will be moving fast or almost over with

 

 

 

 

 

7 minutes ago, DLMKA said:

I'm 20 miles west of PIA in the EURO screwhole with you

I agree that there will likely be a screw hole somewhere with subsidence in between intense bands but one as large as Euro no way. I think FV3 had a more realistic portrayal of it

The screw hole on euro is laughable. I mean I can see a lull between the fgen band and the heavier band of deformation zone but one that large no. Just comical it has the lowest qpf bullseyed over me

Love how euro has a stripe of heavy snow near WI-IL border and then one north of I70 with a massive donut hole of much lower totals in between. Going to go with a no on that. These globals are really messed up

2 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

12z is also casting doubt on that cold spell next week.

Yea models are keeping the extreme cold bottled up further north though. Keeping the polar vortex stronger and more in tact

Just now, Jim Martin said:

Hearing that the storm for this weekend has not been fully sampled, yet. I thought it was beginning with the 12z model suite today.

Might have leading edge sampled. But the core of it is still offshore. 0z will be full sampling

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Remember how badly it did with last weekends storm...Most runs didn’t have above 9” anywhere. We know how that worked out...


.

Literally was just thinking that. It under estimated northern fringe of accumulating snow and only had like 5-7in here when 10-13in fell

GFS snow totals I think are way underdone in northern IL. I think it is having convective feedback or something. It is so splotchy with totals

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The fact that the Euro continues the weak sauce output definitely makes me lean towards it and the wussy GFS as well.  Unfortunately it looks like the NAM/RGEM are incorrect.  

Sadly I think you're right. Pretty close to throwing in the towel on this one coming together but going to hold off to see if sampling will change model output or not. Would like to see support from the globals in favor of the hi-res

So all in all 0z summary is we still have no clue. Lol

I honestly don't know what to expect at this point. Nam last time sniffed out the higher totals esp to the north. Doesn't mean it is right everytime but something to watch

Just now, cyclone77 said:

I'm kind of puzzled as to which side to choose.  Usually I'd lean towards the hi-res around this time, but the globals seem to be holding their ground.  If the Euro comes in similar to it's previous few runs I really won't know what to think lol. 

The thing is the globals seem to be drastically different with erratic changes so not sure. Sampling can't come soon enough. Lol

9 minutes ago, hlcater said:

00z globals seems pretty ho-hum with regards to run to run change this evening. Because of that, I'm more inclined to side with them over the NAM. They didn't downtrend or really trend anywhere at all, just kinda held serve with 18/12z.

Yea kind of left puzzled. But not surprising because we still haven't had a sample yet. Hopefully that will help hone in models tomorrow. We're getting closer to NAM's good range. Am curious to see if Euro budges

Looking at the trough at 500mb being more neutral I was thinking this run was going to turn out better. Possibly earlier phasing

1 minute ago, UMB WX said:

Thought we could baby step a bit better than that on the GFS tonight. 

GFS can be quite stubborn. With the last storm it was way underplaying amounts up till the day of

5 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

0z GFS coming in stronger...

Yep it is pretty amped with the surface low

Just now, Stebo said:

In my scenario if we want the deformation band to hold into the region longer, we need this to go negative tilted.

Totally agree. You may have a shot being further east but I may be too west to benefit from it. Depends on if and when that even occurs. 18z runs were certainly more encouraging 

Great points Stebo! Was thinking the same thing. A more NE movement would help though with keeping the deformation band around longer. Has anyone noticed how much models are underestimating the current snowpack we have to?

That was certainly a nice step to a more robust system. Curious to see if 0z continues it. Should have a partial sampling at least by 0z runs tomorrow night. Hopefully full sample by 12z Fri

6 minutes ago, ryanmkay said:

Honestly looking forward to next weeks storm also. Grand Rapids WFO said it is the more significant snow.

Models can barely handle this storm that's a few days away so I wouldn't get excited about anything next week yet. Lol. It will be an active pattern but how significant remains to be seen

5 hours ago, Stebo said:

I find it amazing we had all this consistency for like 3-4 days and poof in one run cycle we are at mass chaos.

 

Took the words right out of my mouth. Ha. Well let's see if 12z continues the chaos or if we start trending better again

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nobody should be swinging like that based on model runs for a storm 3+ days out.  

Never said I was "swinging" but you can tell the overall mood and lack of posts reflects disappointment. I mean yea it is days away and anything is still on the table. I am curious to see how euro looks tonight

Man we went from being ecstatic last night to heartbroken tonight. Surely hope this trends even slightly better tomorrow. Worse set of runs so far

Well about the only thing consistent on models is that further east will cash in big time. Out west is a crapshoot on earlier phasing

Just now, andyhb said:

Relying on a phase is always a dangerous game to play if you're looking for the high end.

Couldn't agree more. I'm not as hopeful as I once was for this. Has high end potential but seems to be a lot of misses on models. At least there looks to be a cold, active pattern ahead

It all comes down to a phase. Trended away from that today. If these trends continue tomorrow then I may believe them more. Anyone think euro will hold strong?