cyclone77

Mods feel free to move my last few posts to the new thread for Tuesday.

Yeah it's looking pretty ugly in that area. FWIW the long range RUC forecasts cape in excess of 5000j/kg in this highly sheared environment over northeast Texas late tomorrow. Likely overdone, but I'm sure we'll be seeing monster sups traversing northeast Texas/southeast Oklahoma later tomorrow....

Pretty sick forecast soundings coming out of far southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas tomorrow evening. This event won't be as widespread as what will happen Wednesday, but some strong tornadoes look quite possible over some of the same areas that were impacted today. 00z NAM forecast sounding over far southeast Oklahoma tomorrow evening...

Very impressive theta-e feeding due north underneath the very powerful west-southwesterly 100kt+ H5 jet. Just wow.

The forecast soundings from northern Alabama into Kentucky are pretty scary Wednesday afternoon. So much potential. Sure hope people in those areas are aware of what's coming.

All I can say is wow looking at some of the forecast soundings for Wednesday. There are some huge differences between the NAM and GFS. The NAM develops a secondary southern low, and really limits instability further north. The GFS paints a completely different scenario further north with much more instability, as it doesn't develop this southern low. Right now I'd lean towards the NAM, as I feel it handled today's setup considerably better than the GFS. Northeast Mississippi/northern Alabama and parts of Tennessee look pretty dangerous Wednesday afternoon.

Unless something changes I'm out for Monday. There's just too much precip/clouds in the warm sector north of the Arkansas border which will severely limit instability. Down in Arkansas this shouldn't be an issue. The storms that blow up down there will likely pivot northeastward into southern and eastern Missouri, and the southern Illinois after dark.

The new 21z SREF holds out a little hope for areas further north.

00z NAM says forget about chasing Monday anywhere north of Oklahoma or Arkansas.

Monday's setup looks pretty conditional over Missouri and the southern half of Illinois. The NAM has quite a bit of clouds and precip in the warm sector during the day, which severely limits instability. The GFS is less bullish with this, and therefore creates a better scenario for this area. The 18z GFS is actually pretty nice as it has a stronger surface low over Missouri as well as modest instability in the warm sector. Shear profiles are pretty good over eastern Missouri into central/southern Illinois. As Janet mentioned the St. Louis area would again be a hot spot if the GFS pans out. Hopefully as time goes on we'll see less and less precip shown in the warm sector, but I'm not very confident that will happen.

Monday's setup looks pretty decent on the new GFS over the south half of Missouri and the southern third of Illinois. Already cleared my schedule for Monday, so I'll be heading south if things continue to look this good. GFS sounding near the St. Louis area late Monday...

Just now starting to take a real good look at this setup. The latest GFS shows sort of an elongated surface low from northern Missouri down into Oklahoma. Mid and upper winds are fairly backed over the northern portion of the warm sector, so unless we get a stronger northern (closed) low it doesn't look too good further north. As it stands now the best shot for supercell action will be further south where mid and upper winds are more veered. If the mid and upper level jet structure changes, or if the northern low becomes more dominant then this will all change. Still time for some tweaks. Edited: for my first grade punctuation